In the first half of the year, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices remained stable, while the prices of dysprosium oxide and dysprosium metal remained stable. The price of dysprosium ferroalloy slightly decreased, with dysprosium oxide prices reaching 1.465 million yuan/ton as of the 11th; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.42 million yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.35% in price; The price of dysprosium metal is 1.965 million yuan/ton.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
The price trend of the heavy rare earth market remained stable in the first ten days, which was not caused by a single factor, but rather the result of the combined effects of supply rigidity, demand support, policy regulation, and market games.
Supply side: Continuous strengthening of rigid constraints
The domestic supply of rare earths is strictly constrained by total quantity control indicators. The total quota for rare earth mining in 2026 is 285000 tons of REO, including 246000 tons of light rare earths (+7.1% year-on-year) and 39000 tons of heavy rare earths (only+2.6% year-on-year, almost zero growth). The quota for medium and heavy rare earths has remained zero growth for several consecutive years, with a clear supply ceiling. Even though the Baiyunebo Mine reported the production expansion, the rare earth output is still strictly limited by the quota, and will not exceed the total amount index due to the increase of ore mining output. At the same time, the increase in overseas supply is limited. Myanmar’s rare earth ore imports are hindered, and overseas substitution capacity can only cover the low-end demand for light rare earths. The heavy rare earth sector still heavily relies on China. Due to invoicing issues, some domestic waste recycling companies have reduced production, further limiting the annual supply growth rate.
Demand side: Structural support for stable chassis
The largest downstream application of heavy rare earths is permanent magnet materials in the fields of new energy vehicles and wind power. The second and third quarters are usually the traditional off-season for the new energy vehicle and wind power industries, resulting in insufficient orders for magnetic material companies and a decrease in operating rates to 60% -65%. Terminal enterprises are suppressing prices, and magnetic material factories generally adopt a conservative strategy of “on-demand procurement and zero inventory”, refusing high prices, resulting in a significant contraction of demand for heavy rare earths. In order to reduce costs, some mid to low end magnetic materials have reduced the addition of heavy rare earth elements such as dysprosium and terbium in production, further suppressing demand and maintaining a low market for heavy rare earths.
Policy side: Strategic control and storage support
Since 2026, rare earth control policies have been implemented intensively. The Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law have officially come into effect, for the first time including rare earths in the national strategic mineral resources catalog in the form of administrative regulations, and establishing a legal and normalized storage system. The National Material Reserve Bureau has launched the fourth phase of the rare earth storage plan, with annual storage targets of 3000 tons, 4000 tons, and 5000 tons of neodymium metal from 2026 to 2028. The collection and storage mechanism provides a bottom line effect for prices, gradually shifting the positioning of rare earths from “cyclical products” to “strategic products”. In addition, industry consolidation continues to advance. China Rare Earth, China Nonferrous Metals, and China Minmetals, the three major central mining enterprises, have simultaneously initiated asset restructuring and integration. The establishment of the two major rare earth groups in the north and south will gradually concentrate fragmented mining rights and smelting indicators in the hands of top enterprises, making the upstream supply rhythm more controllable.
Market forecast: The recent trend of heavy rare earth market is stable, and the core is the result of the combined effect of insufficient short-term demand and market sentiment cooling. Starting from 2026, the global supply and demand gap for rare earths may continue to widen, and rare earth prices are expected to remain stable with some progress.
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