1、 Price trend: The benchmark price is moderately rising, and spot prices are stable with small movements
| Melamine |
As of September 7th, the benchmark price of melamine was 6212.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.61% from the beginning of the month (6175.00 yuan/ton). From the daily prices this week, the price remained stable at 6200 yuan/ton from September 1st to 4th, and rose to 6212.50 yuan/ton on September 5th and 6th, with a daily increase or decrease of 0.00%. Only September 4th saw a slight increase of 0.20%. The overall performance is characterized by a narrow range consolidation and a slight shift in the center of gravity, with a pattern of “large stability and small movement”.
2、 Technical signal: The direction of the mean deviation is different, and the trend is judged as “oscillation”
According to the core principle of spot market analysis tools, an upper crossing of the moving average (from negative to positive) indicates an upward signal, while a lower crossing of the moving average (from positive to negative) indicates a downward or adjustment signal.
Analysts believe that the three directions of the mean deviation are not completely consistent and do not meet the clear trend determination criteria, therefore the current price trend is classified as oscillation.
From a historical percentile perspective, the current price is at the median level in both the 60 day and 90 day cycles, with a relatively balanced range of fluctuations; Being at a low level in a one-year cycle indicates limited space below and some support for prices.
3、 Fundamental analysis of supply and demand
1. Supply side: low to medium operating rate, frequent device dynamics
This week, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic melamine industry remained at a medium low level of around 52% to 54%. In terms of equipment, the market supply increment is limited. In addition, overseas SKW Pistritz in Germany has shut down its 80000 ton/year plant, tightening the available supply of goods in the European region and providing a certain boost to domestic export expectations.
Overall, the contraction of the supply side provides bottom support for prices, but the increment brought by the resumption of production equipment also limits the upward space.
2. Cost side: Raw material urea continues to rise, with increased cost support
As of September 7th, the benchmark price of urea was 1722.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.44% from the beginning of the month (1715.00 yuan/ton). The continuous rise of raw material urea is one of the core factors that have supported the recent price of melamine. Urea rose due to the strong coal prices and international prices, transmitting upward momentum from the cost side to melamine.
It should be noted that the actual demand for urea has not shown significant improvement, and if the subsequent rise in urea slows down, the cost support effect may weaken.
3. Demand side: Terminal demand is flat, with obvious resistance to high prices
Downstream demand continues to be weak. The domestic demand for sheet metal is constrained by the sluggish real estate market, and the industrial sector only maintains basic needs to keep up. Downstream consumers have a strong resistance to “high priced” sources of goods. At present, it is a relatively off-season for sheet metal, with limited stock follow-up. The overall market is in a supply-demand game, with supply contraction and cost increase providing price support. However, weak demand is suppressing the upper space, and offers are mainly flexible.
4、 Comprehensive outlook
In the short term, the melamine market is likely to continue its volatile consolidation pattern: raw material urea is rising, and the industry is operating at a medium low level; The one-year price position is relatively low, and the downward space is limited. The terminal demand is flat, and downstream high prices resist; The mean difference signal has not formed a clear trend direction.
Subsequent attention should be focused on the trend of raw material urea prices, changes in plant operating rates, and whether the 10 day moving average and 20 day moving average can form a clear “moving average upward crossing” signal. If this signal appears, it may indicate the start of an upward trend; On the contrary, in a supply-demand stalemate, the market will continue to experience narrow fluctuations.
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