1、 Market Review
In the past week (September 2-8), the PA66 market has been in a stalemate in the early stage. In the later stage of the week, factories concentrated on raising their ex factory quotations, and spot prices quickly rose. The benchmark spot price increased from 18166.67 yuan/ton to 19100.00 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 5.14%. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 60 day cycle price is in the high range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range; The moving average model sends a clear upward signal, indicating a strengthening short-term trend, but the short-term price has already reached a high level, and there is limited room for further upward movement.
2、 Cost analysis
The price of upstream adiponitrile raw materials has risen, and the strength of upstream chemicals such as acrylonitrile has driven up the cost of raw materials, resulting in increased support for PA66 production costs. In the early stage, the price of slices was close to the cost line of the industry, and the pressure of production enterprises to lose money was greater. The willingness to ship at low prices was weakened. Leading enterprises raised prices and concentrated price increases, pushing the focus of market quotations upward. However, there is currently no significant contraction in the supply of raw materials, and the foundation for sustained cost increases is not yet available.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the overall operation of PA66 plants in China remains relatively high, with sufficient market supply and no obvious shortage of supply; As prices rise, manufacturers’ willingness to support prices has strengthened, but there is currently no large-scale initiative to reduce production and maintain prices. In terms of demand, the downstream modification, injection molding, and airbag wire industries are expected to experience the traditional peak season of Jinjiu. Some downstream industries are concerned about the continued rise of raw materials, leading to precautionary restocking and a rebound in inquiry and transaction volume; However, there has not been an explosive growth in actual orders at the terminal, and downstream factories have limited acceptance of high-level raw materials. Most enterprises still maintain on-demand procurement, and there is a weak willingness to stockpile in large quantities. Under the game of supply and demand, costs and peak season expectations drive prices upwards, but terminal demand forms a certain constraint on the upward trend.
4、 Short term forecast
In the short term, the PA66 spot market is likely to continue its strong and volatile pattern. The support of raw material costs, expectations for the peak season of the Golden September, and downstream replenishment behavior have formed favorable conditions for the market, and there is still a possibility of price increase; However, the short-term price is already at a high level in the 60 day cycle, and the follow-up strength of terminal demand is limited. The conditions for continuing to surge sharply are insufficient. Beware of the risk of a pullback in transactions after the rise. It is expected that PA66 will fluctuate in the short-term range of 18700-19600 yuan/ton, with a focus on tracking the trend of raw material adiponitrile and the release of downstream real orders.
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