Strong reality, weak cost, acrylic acid prices remain volatile at high levels

1、 Market Overview: Prices have slightly increased, maintaining high levels of operation
This week, the domestic acrylic acid market showed a fluctuating upward trend. On September 8th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid was 8350.00 yuan/ton. Compared to the 8233.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (September 1st), the weekly average has increased by 1.42%.
From the perspective of price trends, after a brief period of stability, the market experienced a significant upward trend at the beginning of the week (with a 1.21% increase on September 4th), and then stabilized and consolidated at a high level.
Fundamental analysis: supply-demand game and cost divergence
Despite the rise in finished product prices, the upstream raw material side has shown the opposite trend:
On September 8th, the benchmark price of upstream raw material propylene was 9034.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10% from the beginning of this week. The decline in raw material prices theoretically weakens the cost support for acrylic acid.
Against the backdrop of a decline in raw material prices, the price of acrylic acid remains strong or even rises, mainly due to the supply-demand game. In order to maintain profit margins, acrylic acid factories and holders have adopted a strategy of stable price quotations, offsetting the negative impact of cost side declines. The control of spot circulation in the market forces downstream to accept high prices.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, the acrylic acid market is currently in a situation of “strong reality, weak cost”.
Short term forecast: Due to the upward divergence of the moving average system and its historical high, market inertia still exists. It is expected that acrylic acid will continue its trend of interval consolidation and operation next week.
Focus: It is necessary to closely monitor whether the raw material propylene has stopped falling and stabilized. If propylene continues to decline significantly, it may further compress factory profits, leading to reduced production to maintain prices or forcing factories to lower factory prices; On the contrary, if downstream demand can continue to follow up and high priced transactions can increase volume, prices are expected to further break through.