Magnesium market trend

On April 28, 2020, the ex factory cash price including tax of magnesium ingots (99.9%, non pickling, simple packaging) in main domestic production areas was lowered. At present, the main quotation range is 12950-13200 yuan / ton, and the actual single negotiation is the main part.

According to the follow-up information of the business agency, the ex factory spot exchange including tax in fugu area is 12950-13100 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Taiyuan area is 13100-13200 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Wenxi area is 13200-13300 yuan / ton; the spot exchange in Ningxia area is 13000-13100 yuan / ton.

According to the data of business agency, the average price of domestic market on the 28th was 13083.33 yuan / ton, which was 14166.67 yuan / ton compared with the market price at the beginning of the year (1.1), a decrease of 7.65%.

The price of magnesium ingot continues to move down. At present, the price has reached a low level in nearly 4 years, as shown in the following figure:

The price of magnesium ingot has been stable recently, and fluctuates down slightly. At present, the market turnover has picked up slightly, the early contract delivery is concentrated, and some manufacturers say that there are not many spot goods. Near the May Day holiday, the downstream manufacturers have basically completed the preparation of goods. At present, the purchase rhythm of a small number of batches has not changed significantly.

Future forecast

The downstream demand is weak, and the rigid demand procurement is the main demand. It is expected that the magnesium market game will intensify in the near future, and the stable operation in the near future will be the main one. 13000 frontline will obtain strong support, and pay attention to the change of the downstream procurement rhythm in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

LNG prices continued to fall in the second half of April. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of LNG on April 27 was 2953.33 yuan / ton, 8.47% lower than that on April 16, and 13.14% lower than that of the same period last year. On April 26, the LNG commodity index was 72.79, down 0.74 points from yesterday, 65.17% from 208.96 (2017-12-25), the highest point in the cycle, and 5.72% higher than 68.85, the lowest point on October 7, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: as of April 27, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Xingxing Energy Co., Ltd. was 2970 yuan / ton, Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. was 2920 yuan / ton, Xinjiang Guanghui naomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) was about 2850 yuan / ton, Shanxi Qinshui Xinao LNG price was 3050 yuan / ton, Shaanxi Zhongyuan Green Energy Co., Ltd The LNG price of Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 2970 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin Energy Co., Ltd. is 3300 yuan / ton, and that of Xinjiang Qinghua is 3900 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: LNG market in the second half of the month was not good, and the price continued to fall. Recently, the international oil price has been falling, even negative, which has an impact on the long-term price of LNG import, and there is a risk of further decline in imported gas. The imported sea gas is of high quality and low price, which impacts the domestic LNG market, and it is in the off-season. The downstream demand is general, the inventory of liquid plants is on the high side, and the sales pressure is high. As well as approaching the May Day holiday, dangerous chemical vehicles on the expressway will be restricted. Most manufacturers continue to reduce their prices to seek benefits. The domestic LNG price is subject to multiple pressures and the price drops frequently. At present, most LNG prices in the north are below 3000 yuan, hovering on the cost line, and the profits of liquid plants are shrinking. Today’s decline is suspended, but there is still a risk of falling LNG in the future. Many negative factors such as consumption off-season, intake shock, and sufficient market supply add up, and LNG price may not rise significantly in a short period of time.

News: in March, natural gas production reached 16.9 billion cubic meters, up 11.2% year on year, with an average daily output of 540 million cubic meters. In the first quarter, 48.3 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, up 9.1% year on year. 6.92 million tons of imported natural gas, down 0.2% year on year. In the first quarter, 24.66 million tons of natural gas were imported, up 1.8% year on year. China imported 4.19 million tons of liquefied natural gas in March, up 4.3% year on year, and 2.73 million tons of natural gas in March, down 5.3% year on year.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there is one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There are 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are WTI crude oil (- 34.08%), Brent crude oil (- 11.72%), and dimethyl ether (- 7.75%). This week’s average was – 4.6%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of Business Club: at present, the enthusiasm of downstream receiving is not high in the off-season, the market digestion capacity is weakened, and restricted by factors such as the impact of intake tone, the domestic LNG market continues to decline, with prices falling continuously and hovering near the cost line. It is expected that the LNG market will be weak in the short term, and the good will be hard to find, mostly dominated by low consolidation, and there is still a falling expectation

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, on April 27, according to the average comprehensive quotation of sample enterprises, at present, the mainstream reference quotation of domestic n-propanol containing packaging is around 10000-10900 yuan / ton, and the reference price of bulk water is around 9300-9800 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Product: in late April, driven by the soaring isopropanol market, the domestic n-propanol market was running at a high level, with tight market inventory and high prices. Nanjing area: Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., a manufacturer of n-propanol, is now in normal operation. The ex factory price of n-propanol purified water has been greatly increased. The reference price is 9800 yuan / ton, which is 1300 yuan / ton higher than that before half a month (reference price of 8500 yuan / ton for ex factory purified water on 14th). Shandong Province: the market of n-propanol in Shandong Province has been volatile for half a month, and the market price can be described as one-day discussion. Within half a month, the highest price of domestic n-propanol market including packaging quotation is 12000 yuan / ton. With the recent decline of the market price of isopropanol, the quotation of some n-propanol dealers has been reduced compared with the previous days, but the overall price is still significantly higher than the beginning of the month. At present, the price of n-propanol in Shandong Province is still rising The main quoted price of barreled goods is around 9900-10500 yuan / ton. Up to 27 days ago, the factory quotation of n-propanol with packaging in fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. in Shandong Province was 10500 yuan / ton, which was 1100 yuan / ton higher than that half a month ago (including 9400 yuan / ton of the factory quotation of packaging in 14 days); the factory quotation of jinrihe chemical Co., Ltd. in Jinan was slightly lower than that a few days ago, which was 9500 yuan / ton, but the price was still 1000 yuan / ton higher than that half a month ago; the factory quotation of n-propanol in Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd The reference price of packing is 10000 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton higher than half a month ago. In view of the dealer’s reservation on the price, the price is not easy to monitor, leading to specific negotiations or differences, and there are also differences in each region, with single negotiation as the main part.

Industry chain: isopropanol prices have been rising since mid March. In early April, prices continued to soar as export orders were delivered centrally and factories cut production temporarily due to accidents. Near the end of April, the price of isopropanol began to fall. Up to now, the negotiation range of Shandong isopropanol is about 12500-12800 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu isopropanol is about 12300-13000 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 12600-12700 yuan / ton. Influenced by the international situation, the isopropanol export in China will continue for some time. Many factory offers do not report, domestic trade inquiries more, take goods very cautious, few transactions.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the market of n-propanol is expected to stabilize after a slight decline in the short term.

On April 26, the rare earth index was 330, unchanged from yesterday, down 67.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and up 21.77% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

The average prices of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium are 353500 yuan / ton, 2325000 yuan / ton and 635000 yuan / ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide, praseodymium oxide, neodymium oxide and neodymium oxide rose by 2000 yuan / ton to 263500 yuan / ton, 1795000 yuan / ton, 305000 yuan / ton and 279000 yuan / ton respectively. The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 330500 yuan / ton, and the average price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1785000 yuan / ton.

In the rare earth market, the price trend of rare earth is mainly stable, the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is rising slightly, the domestic heavy rare earth market supply is normal, Myanmar unilaterally closes the customs clearance port, but the domestic manufacturers start work normally, the domestic supply is normal, and the domestic heavy rare earth price trend is temporarily stable. In the near future, the demand for permanent magnet is general, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products is mainly rising slightly, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth is normal in the near future, and some market prices are mainly stable. In addition, recent foreign health events have a great impact on the export volume of rare earth products, and the price trend of rare earth market is stable. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Under the strict inspection of environmental protection, the manufacturer reasonably controlled the sales, but in the near future, the downstream demand was normal, and some rare earth prices rose slightly.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons. National policies are conducive to the balance of supply and demand of rare earth industry. In the near future, the supply of heavy rare earth market has increased, and the market price trend is normal.

Rare earth analysts of business agency expect that the supply of domestic heavy rare earth market is normal in the near future, and the downstream demand is general. In addition, the downstream export market is poor, and the rare earth industry is not well supported, and the price trend of rare earth market is expected to be stable in the later period.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, this week’s Cobalt market fell in shock, breaking the stable trend of the cobalt market since April, and the cobalt price fell in shock. As of April 24, the price of cobalt was 239333.33 yuan / ton, down 3.10% from the average price of 247000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

2、 Market situation

Demand overview

The demand market for cobalt lithium battery is mainly divided into mobile phone consumption and new energy vehicle demand. In terms of the demand for mobile phones, domestic mobile phone manufacturers have basically resumed operation, but the operation rate is not ideal. Affected by the epidemic, the import and export of countries around the world are limited. Most enterprises in the consumer market and power market have stopped production, which greatly reduces the demand for mobile phones and the demand for lithium batteries. In April, export orders of some battery factories will drop sharply, production of battery factories will be reduced, and their demand for cobalt materials will be relatively reduced.

In terms of new energy vehicle market, only some battery factories in China will export to foreign vehicle enterprises, while other power battery factories are mainly in domestic market. However, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the domestic market was freezing, and the demand for cobalt fell to a low level. The demand of cobalt market is decreasing, which is bad for cobalt market.

Cobalt Market Stock

Inventory date item inventory unit

891.75 tons of cobalt 2020-4-27

2020-4-24 cobalt 894.75 tons

765.75 tons of cobalt 2020-4-23

769 tons of cobalt 2020-4-22

2020-4-21 cobalt 772.25 tons

777.75 tons of cobalt 2020-4-20

It can be seen from the table that the stock volume of cobalt market this week rose sharply, and a large amount of cobalt stock entered the market. The supply of cobalt market increased greatly, the price of cobalt was negative, and the downward pressure of cobalt market increased.

3、 Future prospects

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at business club, believes that the demand for cobalt market this week continues to be sluggish, but in terms of supply, a large number of cobalt warehouses are deposited in the market, the supply of cobalt market is increasing, the demand is sluggish, and the bad situation of cobalt market is increasing, with Limited good. On the whole, the recent weak cobalt market has not enough power to rise, but due to the low cobalt price, the risk of cobalt price decline is low. Cobalt market is expected to remain stable.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, on April 27, the spot copper price was 42968.33 yuan / ton, up 2% from the previous day, down 12.03% year on year. Shanghai copper’s main contract opened high to 42880 yuan, and fell to 42490 yuan in the afternoon, up 1.63%.

2、 Market analysis

On April 26, Yunnan provincial government conducted commercial storage of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, germanium, indium and other key non-ferrous metal products in the province, with a total storage capacity of about 800000 tons and a storage period of one year. The news of storage and collection obviously led to the general rise of the metal market, and copper prices continued to rebound. Rio Tinto, one of the world’s major mining enterprises, and Antofagasta, a Chilean miner, lowered their copper production targets, and MMG Peru copper mine encountered force majeure. Freeport lowered its copper production forecast by 11% in 2020. The supply of ore end is still shrinking, and the supply of scrap copper is also insufficient. On the demand side, Europe and the United States plan to restart economic activities, but global economic growth is still facing difficulties, and there are still concerns about the outlook for metal demand, which may inhibit copper prices.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, copper analysts of nonferrous branch of business cooperation believe that: the state’s collection of reserves has boosted copper prices, the interference of copper supply has supported copper prices, domestic demand has rebounded, but exports have been restrained, and copper prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has fallen. As of April 26, the price of phthalic anhydride in ortho phthalic method was 4862.5 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has gradually declined, the demand of plasticizer industry is general, and the market of phthalic anhydride has declined slightly.

In recent years, the market price of domestic phthalic anhydride has fallen, the market demand of phthalic anhydride is poor, the market price of phthalic anhydride is poor, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has fallen slightly. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is general, the market price of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor, and the market price of phthalic anhydride drops slightly. As of the 26th, the market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China fell, but the high-end transactions in the market were blocked. In East China, the main flow of negotiation for neighboring France’s source of goods was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and that for naphthalene’s source of goods was 4200-4500 yuan / ton; in North China, the main flow of quotation for phthalic anhydride market was 4600-5000 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride market was still there, and the market price of phthalic anhydride was generally low.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 4200 yuan / ton. The price of imported phthalic anhydride in the port area is stable and stable temporarily. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port area is general and the price of phthalic acid in the external market is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Affected by the fluctuation of the price of phthalic anhydride upstream raw material, the price of phthalic anhydride market has slightly dropped.

The price of phthalic anhydride and octanol, the raw material of downstream dopdopdopdopdopdop, fell. Influenced by the expectation of crude oil production reduction, the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol rose sharply last week, but the subsequent production reduction agreement was not as expected, and the price rise lost its support. The recovery of downstream demand was limited, and the price of phthalic anhydride and octanol fell. This week, the cost of DOP fell, the downward pressure of DOP increased, and the market price of DOP was bearish. The market price of DOP was about 6300-6600 yuan / ton. The price of upstream DOP was about 6300 The trend of ox price is stable temporarily, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be slightly lower in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic dry process aluminum fluoride market price fell this week, with the average market price at the beginning of the week of 9166 yuan / ton and at the end of the week of 9066 yuan / ton, down 1.09% compared with last week’s price.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of aluminum fluoride fell: the factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. was 8500 yuan / ton, that of Shandong LUZHENG Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9600 yuan / ton, and that of Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9200 yuan / ton.

Market analysis: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid continued to decline. In the near future, the supply situation of manufacturers in the field was poor, the operation of domestic manufacturers’ devices was stable, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was sufficient, the downstream demand was low, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continued to decline. In the near future, the price of raw material fluorite fell, the price of hydrofluoric acid market was affected to some extent, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in China fell, as of the weekend The main flow of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the north market is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. This week, the price of most manufacturers of aluminum fluoride remained stable, Zhengzhou Zerun slightly reduced, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell steadily.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business and chemical branch think: at present, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has a downward trend, and the shortage of aluminum fluoride demand will not end in a short time, and the market price of aluminum fluoride will continue to fall next week.

According to the data of business agency, the weekly average price of domestic industrial grade purified water formic acid is 2300 yuan / ton this week. The formic acid market is relatively stable as a whole this week, and the market price adjustment is not big.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market as a whole showed a relatively stable trend. The price remained at a high level compared with the same period last year. In terms of devices: the devices of manufacturers and distributors operate normally, the delivery is acceptable, the supply of formic acid in the market this week is acceptable, and the enterprises are all in stock. In terms of price: this week, the company’s quotation is basically around 2300 yuan / ton, the main factory price of industrial purified water formic acid is about 1850-2900 yuan / ton, and the main dealers’ quotation is 2492 yuan / ton. As of Friday (March 24), Jinzhou jinhongda Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2150 yuan / ton; Zibo Pulis Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1850 yuan / ton; Zhangzhou San’an Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2000 yuan / ton; 85% formic acid barrel price, Hangzhou Fengchang Trade Co., Ltd. quoted 2900 yuan / ton; Jintan local supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. quoted 2100 yuan / ton; Jinan senhong New Trade Co., Ltd. quoted 2410 yuan / ton; Jinan Huijin Sichuan Trading Co., Ltd. offers 3200 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the domestic liquid ammonia Market of formic acid upstream products is dominated by stable operation, some manufacturers are fine-tuning, the urea market is declining downward, the overall situation of methanol is dominated by rising, and the domestic caustic soda market is declining slightly, and the overall trend is stable. The upstream products generally support the formic acid market, while the leather and pesticide industries of the downstream products are relatively stable with general sales.

3、 Future forecast

According to the formic acid data division of business association, the overall price of domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market is relatively stable, and the current price is still high compared with the same period last year. Recently, the dealer inventory is acceptable, the downstream demand is relatively cold, and the enterprise’s shipment is not much. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will be consolidated in the short term.

Commodity index: on April 25, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 98.78, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.38% from 109.01 (2019-08-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.52% from 97.30, the lowest point on April 23, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

Market: according to the monitoring data of business agency (100ppi. Com), in April 2020, the production of polyaluminium chloride (solid, content ≥ 28%) manufacturers was normal, but the demand continued to be low, some enterprises still mainly consumed inventory, and some manufacturers lowered their prices. April 26th week quote: industrial grade, liquid and alumina content 10%-12%, including tax, price 350-400 yuan / ton; solid content, 20-21% quoted price 860 yuan / ton, reduction of 30 yuan / ton; content 24%, price 1220 yuan / ton, reduction 20 yuan / ton; solid content, 28% or more, price 1550 yuan / ton; spray content of 30% yuan, 1850 yuan / ton; drinking water level, content exceeding 28% 28% yuan / ton, food price quoted About 800 yuan / ton.

Upstream: according to the data of business agency, on April 26, the main factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China was temporarily stable: Dezhou Maihua’s quotation was 160 yuan / ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei’s quotation was 200 yuan / ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Shanxi Wenshui’s quotation was 230 yuan / ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua’s quotation was 250 yuan / ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Taiyuan kunshengda’s quotation was 420 yuan / ton, the quotation was temporarily stable, and the actual transaction price was based on the agreement Business shall prevail. The upstream liquid chlorine market is temporarily stable, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is general, and the supply of hydrochloric acid is normal.

Downstream: the current water treatment market demand is still sluggish, and enterprises generally reflect that this year’s goods are hard to sell, engineering negotiation is difficult, and the cycle is long.

Industry: in late July 2019, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of production suspension, which requires that: according to the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the municipal office requires all deep treatment enterprises to stop production and treatment before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the office. The production was resumed for ten days in August and stopped again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the shutdown was more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection was strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi were required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. On December 19, Gongyi, the main production area of Henan Province, issued an emergency notice, requiring all enterprises to stop production and all goods transportation from now until January 1, 2020 in accordance with the spirit of the 16th scheduling meeting of Gongyi City for environmental pollution control. Zhengzhou municipal leaders will lead the supervision group to continuously supervise and inspect the implementation of management and control. If it is found that the implementation is not in place, the person in charge of the enterprise and the truck driver will be detained. The enterprise will be included in the blacklist of integrity, and the enterprise will be subject to top-level punishment. This notice is very strict for manufacturers and freight requirements, and manufacturers should stop production. During the Spring Festival holiday from January to February 20, 2020, the relevant enterprises in the main production area stop production and delay to return to work. After February 20, the manufacturers in the main production area returned to work one after another, the logistics gradually recovered in March, and the transportation cost was normal. In April, the production was normal, some enterprises still had high inventory, poor demand and difficult delivery.

Future market forecast: according to the analysis of the business community, the current weak demand determines the current market trend, high inventory increases the market pressure, and the future market of polyaluminium chloride still needs time to recover.