This week, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell, with an average market price of 423750 yuan/ton on June 17th and 395620 yuan/ton as of June 24th, a decrease of 6.64%.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Since June 2026, Shanghai tin has experienced a sustained decline. On June 8th, the main contract of Shanghai tin fell 6.74%, closing at 398000 yuan/ton; On June 23rd, it fell again by 4.1%; On June 24th, it fell 3.64% and closed at 395250 yuan/ton. This round of decline is the result of multiple factors resonating in the same time window.
Macroscopic perspective
The macro level constitutes the main suppressive force. The non farm payroll data for May in the United States exceeded expectations and was strong. Expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike sharply increased, and the US dollar index hit a 13 month high, putting overall pressure on US dollar denominated base metals. At the same time, the Nasdaq and Philadelphia Semiconductor Index experienced two rounds of sharp declines, directly impacting the demand expectations for “computing power metals”, and the AI narrative that had previously supported the strengthening of tin prices was temporarily shaken.
Supply and demand side: intertwining long and short positions
On the supply side, tin concentrate imports increased by 17% month on month in May, breaking Myanmar’s expectations for resuming production. The continuous increase in processing fees indicates a easing of raw material shortages; However, LME tin inventory is only 8825 tons, and the previous futures inventory is 9286 tons, both at historically low levels, with extremely fragile supply elasticity, forming the core support at the bottom. The demand side is dragged down by the traditional off-season consumption, and downstream procurement is cautious.
Inventory end
Inventory is at a historically low level: LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange are both reducing inventory in the same direction, and global explicit tin inventory has fallen to a historically low level. At such a low inventory level, any supply side disturbance could trigger a rebound.
comprehensive analysis
All technical indicators are pointing towards the bearish direction, with the mean difference in the “negative expansion” stage. The acceleration of the decline is evident, and there is no signal of a stop to the decline yet. The focus below is on the integer level of 380000 yuan/ton and the support of 375000 yuan/ton (near the 120 day moving average). The negative divergence rate between the current price and the short-term moving average has exceeded 8%, and the degree of short-term oversold has intensified. However, there is no turning point in the moving average, and the rebound still needs to wait. In the medium term, extremely low inventory and rigid supply constraints will provide bottom support for tin prices, and it is expected to maintain a wide range of fluctuations.
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