Data monitoring shows that the long and short index of natural rubber on November 30 was 58.3, down – 41.7% from the highest point of 100.0 in the cycle (2020-10-27), and up 721.1% from the lowest point of 7.1 on June 19, 2013. (Note: the period refers to the period from November 1, 2012 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in November 2021

Data monitoring shows that in November, China’s natural rubber market showed a trend of first down, then up and down: the mainstream quotation of domestic standard 1 spot rubber in East China market was 13583.33 yuan / ton on the 1st and 13560 yuan / ton on the 30th, slightly down by 0.17%; However, the monthly price fluctuated greatly this month. The highest point of the monthly price was 14360 yuan / ton on the 25th and the lowest point was 13060 yuan / ton on the 4th, with a maximum increase of 9.95% in the month.

Figure 3: comparison chart of natural rubber market in November 2021

The factors affecting the market this month are:

1. Macro: since November, crude oil prices have fallen sharply. WTI crude oil fell by 18.45% and Brent crude oil fell by 14.49%; The crude oil analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the impact of the new virus will continue to ferment, the epidemic in Europe will become more and more intense, and the oil price will be in an empty atmosphere, but it is unlikely that the oil price will continue to fall sharply. At present, the market focus is mainly on the OPEC + meeting to be held. Overall, oil prices may fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the possibility of continued bottoming cannot be ruled out.

2. Supply side: production area: Southeast Asia is affected by bad weather and frequent rainfall, which affects the local rubber cutting and raw rubber supply. For example, Thai media reported on November 26 that Thailand continues to issue flood warning in the South; As the northeast monsoon is strong and water vapor continues to be brought from the Gulf of Thailand, there is a fear of heavy rainfall in southern Thailand until 30 days ago. Eight governments such as Chunpeng must pay attention to the flood caused by accumulated precipitation; Secondly, a new type of deciduous disease broke out in rubber trees in Thailand. According to Thai media reports on November 29, jessada, director of Thai Rubber Research Institute, revealed that a new type of deciduous disease broke out in rubber trees in jianzhuwen and Dalat provinces in eastern Thailand, with a sick rubber forest area of more than 100 Lai. China’s rubber production areas in Yunnan began to stop cutting one after another, and Hainan stopped cutting at the end of the year. Affected by the cold wave weather, the cutting stop date may come ahead of schedule. In general, the significant reduction of domestic and foreign supply has significantly supported the rubber price. Output data: the October report recently released by ANRPC predicts that the global natural rubber output will increase by 1.8% year-on-year to 13.836 million tons in 2021. Among them, Thailand decreased by 3.9%, Indonesia increased by 2.8%, China increased by 22.9%, India increased by 15.3%, Vietnam slightly increased by 0.3% and Malaysia increased by 3%. In October, the global output of natural rubber is expected to drop by 0.6% to 1331000 tons. Among them, Thailand decreased by 2.4%, Indonesia increased by 4.7%, Vietnam decreased by 1.7% and Malaysia increased by 20.1%.

3. Downstream: operating rate data: the data show that as of November 25, the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 66.00%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points over last week, a decrease of 9.35 percentage points over the same period last year and 2.06 percentage points over the same period in 2019. The operating load of semi steel tire was 62.25%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points over last week, a decrease of 9.04 percentage points over the same period last year and 6.56 percentage points over the same period in 2019. Consumption data: according to the October report recently released by ANRPC, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to increase by 8.3% year-on-year to 14.028 million tons in 2021. Among them, China increased by 5.4%, India increased by 14.4%, Thailand decreased by 4.6% and Malaysia decreased by 2.4%. In October, the global consumption of natural rubber is expected to decline by 3.7% to 1141000 tons. Among them, China decreased by 9.3%, India by 23.1%, Thailand by 9.5% and Malaysia by 7.2%. Tire data: according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics, China’s rubber tire output in October was 73.071 million, a year-on-year decrease of 5.9%. From January to October, the output of rubber tire casing increased by 13.8% over the same period of the previous year to 73845.2 million. Auto data: on November 24, according to the data of China passenger Federation, the overall retail sales of narrow passenger car market in the third week of November reached 49000 vehicles per day, a year-on-year decrease of 12%, and the performance was relatively improved, a decrease of 6% compared with the third week of October this year. Due to the obvious improvement of production in October, the retail recovery in November should be obvious, but the current recovery speed is still not fast, which is similar to that in 2019, and it is also a good performance.

4. In terms of inventory: the warehouse receipts increased significantly in the previous period. Statistics show that as of November 26, Tianjiao warehouse receipts were 1404700 tons, an increase of 12300 tons on a weekly basis. The total inventory of the exchange was 188350 tons, an increase of 8827 tons on a weekly basis; The No. 20 rubber warehouse receipt was 41671 tons, an increase of 91 tons. The total inventory of the exchange was 5259200 tons, an increase of 2006 tons on a weekly basis. The inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to go to the warehouse. Due to the poor shipping, most of the orders delayed in the early stage did not arrive at the port as scheduled; As the start-up of the tire factory has picked up, the inventory has increased.

5. Import and export: China: in October, China exported 342300 tons of all steel tires, 10.33% month on month, 0.32% year on year. From January to October, China exported 3.0714 million tons, 12.05% year on year; In October, the half steel tire was 182400 tons, with a month on month ratio of – 5.6% and a year-on-year ratio of – 1.3%. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1905500 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year ratio of 19.45%. Thailand: in the first 10 months of 2021, Thailand exported 2.778 million tons of natural rubber (excluding composite rubber), a year-on-year increase of 30%, and 3.762 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber, a year-on-year increase of 7%; The total export to China was 1.975 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7%.

6. Policy: India: according to foreign media reports on November 26, once the price difference of fresh latex is 2 rupees per kilogram higher than that of rss4, the rubber board of India will provide subsidies to rubber farmers according to the price difference. The Bureau has taken measures to strengthen film production to fill the shortage in the domestic market. Thailand: according to the news from Thailand on November 24, Zhu Lin, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Commerce of Thailand, stressed that we should continue to promote the third year income security plan to help farmers, fight back against the claim that the prices of all crops have fallen, and pointed out that the price of cup glue (DRC 50%) is higher than the guaranteed price.

7. Tire price increase: under the comprehensive influence of environmental protection, power restriction, rising raw material prices and other factors, tire manufacturers at home and abroad have issued tire price increase notices, such as Zhongce Rubber, Linglong tire, Zhengxin tire, Fengshen tire, Qingdao Shuangxing, Qingdao Jianxin united, Zhongda & Haoyu rubber, Hubei outlets, Pu linchengshan, GM, etc.

Future forecast: natural disasters have occurred frequently in Southeast Asia recently, and it is reported that La Nina will reach the peak from the end of next month to January 2022. Another report said that a new type of Defoliation Disease broke out in the rubber forests of Tsim Chuk Mun and Dalat Prefecture in Thailand, affecting the rubber cutting rate in many ways; At the same time, China’s domestic rubber began to stop cutting, and the natural rubber supply side played a supporting role in the market; The latest data show that the demand of downstream tire manufacturers has rebounded slightly; Rubber producing countries such as India provide subsidies to rubber farmers; Several tire manufacturers issued price increase notices; In addition, the epidemic, especially Omicron, has a great impact on the world. The terminal market is depressed and the freight industry is depressed. To sum up, various factors not only support the rubber trend, but also the overall impact of macro factors this month and the sharp weakening of crude oil and coal on bulk commodities. It is expected that natural rubber will maintain the range shock trend, and the continuous weakening risk caused by recent external system risks will not be ruled out in the short term.

Price trend in November

According to the bulk list data of business society, the market price of cryolite continued to rise in November. The average market price at the end of the month was 7200 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.86% over the price of 7000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 22.09% year-on-year.

Analysis of industrial chain in the month

In November, the domestic cryolite market continued to be strong, the raw materials were still tight, the production cost of cryolite enterprises increased, the production capacity decreased, the inventory decreased, and the demand shipment was OK. The external quotation of cryolite enterprises operated at a high level, and the market rose slightly. As of the 30th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 6500-8600 yuan / ton, up 400 yuan / ton month on month; The ex factory price in Shandong was raised by 400 yuan / ton simultaneously, and the quotation was about 7600 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated.

Upstream, the domestic soda ash market continued to decline. On November 30, the average price of soda ash was 3387.50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.19% compared with the price of 3650.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. With the increase of soda ash inventory and downstream on-demand procurement, the market digests the previous increase in the month, and the soda ash price continues to decline. However, due to the large increase in the previous price, the current soda ash market price is still high.

The downstream aluminum price continued to fluctuate in November. On November 30, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 18876.67 yuan / ton, down 6.66% from the average price of 20223.33 yuan / ton on November 1. Aluminum social inventory is high, downstream demand is general, and consumption is slow. Affected by building materials, aluminum prices fluctuate frequently during the month, and the overall market is weak.

Future forecast

At present, there is a shortage of raw materials in the upstream of domestic cryolite, the production cost of enterprises continues to be high, the cryolite market continues to be strong, and the downstream demand is OK. The quotation of cryolite enterprises is mainly high, and there is no possibility of short-term price reduction. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable in the later stage.

In November, the domestic Shunding market fell first and then rose, and the price rose at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 14820 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, then fell to the lowest point of 13990 yuan / ton in the month, rebounded to 16120 yuan / ton at the end of the month, and increased by 8.77% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In mid and early November, the domestic CIS polybutadiene rubber market was weak and the price fell. Later, with the arrival of heavy snow in early winter, the transportation of some varieties was difficult, the market circulation supply was tight, and the factory prices of manufacturers increased one after another, so the market offer rose sharply. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of November 30, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding of PetroChina Northeast sales company was reported as 15400 yuan / ton; Market traders’ offers followed suit.

List of commencement of polybutadiene rubber in November.

According to the business agency, in November, Yantai Haopu Shunding plant was shut down and Lande Shunding plant was upgraded to two-line operation. At the end of the month, Yanshan Petrochemical rare earth Shunding plant was converted to BR9000. Generally speaking, the operating rate of Shunding rubber industry in November decreased slightly compared with the previous period.

Butadiene, the raw material, fell sharply in November, dragging down butadiene rubber on the cost side. According to the monitoring of business society, as of November 30, the price of butadiene was 6486 yuan / ton, down 18.83% from 7991 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In November, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated. At the beginning of the month, the price was 13583 yuan / ton, the low point in the month was 13060 yuan / ton, and the high point in the month was 14360 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the price fell to 13560, down 0.17% from the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: according to the analysts of business society, it can be seen from the price comparison chart of butadiene butadiene butadiene rubber and natural rubber butadiene rubber that the current price trend of butadiene rubber deviates greatly from that of butadiene and that of natural rubber. From the perspective of cost and substitutability, the impact on butadiene rubber is relatively empty. In addition, the start-up of domestic butadiene rubber plants has not decreased significantly, It is expected that the price trend of CIS polybutadiene rubber may fall in the later stage.

Acetic anhydride fell on November 29

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride fell and the market of acetic anhydride fell on November 29. On November 29, the price of acetic anhydride was 11925.00 yuan / ton, down 0.42% from 11975 yuan / ton on November 26 of the previous trading day. Affected by the decline of raw materials, acetic anhydride market fell.

Acetic anhydride cost down

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic acid fell on November 29, the recent high price of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride raw materials fell, which was bad for the acetic anhydride market, the rising power of acetic anhydride in the future weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Market overview and future forecast

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business society, on November 29, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials fell, the price of methanol fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, the inventory of acetic anhydride still existed, there were more downstream purchases, the market turnover was cold, and the price of acetic anhydride is expected to decline weakly in the future.

The dichloromethane market continued to decline this week (11.19-11.26). According to the data monitoring of business society, the dichloromethane market continued to decline this week (11.19-11.26). As of November 26, the average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 4432 yuan / ton, down 5.59% from 4695 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

The price of raw methanol fell slightly this week, and the cost side was weak. According to the business agency, as of November 26, the price of methanol was 2692 yuan / ton, down 2.05% from 2748 yuan / ton last Friday.

Future forecast: according to the methane chloride data of business society, analysts believe that the supply and demand of dichloromethane is weak, coupled with the decline of cost, it is expected that dichloromethane will continue to be weak in the short term.

Spot aluminum prices moved down slightly on the 25th

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on November 25 was 19336.67 yuan / ton, up 1.08% from the average market price of 19130 yuan / ton on November 24.

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. At the peak of this year (October 19, 2021), the average market price of aluminum ingots is 124240 yuan / ton, which has fallen by 20.23% recently. Based on the average market price of 15726.67 yuan / ton of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021), the cumulative increase rate was reduced to 22.95%.

Future forecast

Recently, the bottom of aluminum ingot has stabilized and returned to the front line of 19000. In the short term, due to the good news of real estate, the price has moved down more in the early stage, and the market expectation has improved. However, the actual demand is still relatively general, and the social inventory continues to accumulate. It is expected to stabilize in the short term, but the upward space has narrowed, and the operation range is 18800-19700 yuan / ton.

At present, the ex factory price of ethylene oxide in East China, North China, South China and Northeast China is 7500 yuan / ton, and that in Central China is 7700 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of the previous trading day.

In terms of upstream ethylene, the external price of ethylene in Northeast Asia is US $1130 / T, that in Southeast Asia is US $1045 / T, and the quotation of Jinshan Lianmao ethylene today is 7800 yuan / T, which is the same as that of the previous trading day. Ethylene prices slowly declined. According to the latest external price, the loss of ethylene oxide was about 500 yuan / ton. The manufacturer limited production and reduced the burden to reduce the loss.

Downstream, the current valuation of ethylene glycol is at a low level. Although the polyester demand has improved, it fluctuates at a low level due to the expectation of long-term new production capacity and bad crude oil. There are still worries in the monomer downstream market, mainly on the sidelines, with limited demand improvement.

The market is temporarily stable

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on November 23 was 5250 yuan / ton.

On November 22, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China market was 5170 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day and 10.5 yuan / ton compared with last week.

Due to the increasing rumors that the United States, Japan and India will release crude oil reserves to stabilize oil prices, demand is expected to weaken, oil prices fall and coal stabilizes. The actual purchase of ethylene glycol was general. In the afternoon, the focus of Meg’s external market continued to strengthen. In December, the transaction of cargo was above 690 US dollars / ton.

Forecast: low shock.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (November 22): 14450.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic TDI market is waiting to be sorted out. In terms of supply, the factory devices operate normally, the factory has no inventory pressure for the time being, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the goods holder mainly talks about shipping, the demand for terminal products weakens, the transaction of new orders in the field is not smooth, the export orders are reduced, the support for TDI is insufficient, and the TDI market operates weakly under the supply-demand game. At present, the quotation of TDI domestic goods in the distribution market in East China is about 13800-14200 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 14300-14500 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation.

Future forecast: wait and see the short-term TDI market, pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid decreased slightly this week, and the quotation decreased from 318.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 292.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 8.18%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.26% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week. On November 20, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 76.84, the same as yesterday, down 44.27% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 327.36% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012.

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quoted 300 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 230 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid quoted 130 yuan / ton this weekend, down 30 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid is quoted at 200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng Sanan hydrochloric acid is quoted at 600 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell slightly, weakening the support for hydrochloric acid. The price of downstream white carbon black is adjusted at a high level, and the quotation is 6875.00 yuan / ton; The market price of ammonium chloride decreased slightly, and the quotation was 1177.50 yuan / ton. On the whole, upstream and downstream products have a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid.

Future forecast

The upstream liquid chlorine market has fallen recently, the cost support is general, the downstream white carbon black and ammonium chloride market have fallen slightly, and the downstream purchase intention has weakened. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.