The geopolitical issues in the Middle East have eased, with crude oil significantly weakening and poor cost support leading to a significant decline in the PTA market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on June 16th, the spot price of PTA in East China was 6127 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.34% from the previous trading day.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
The crude oil market experienced a significant decline on Monday, June 15th, with the prices of the two main crude oil futures plummeting simultaneously. The settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $80.75 per barrel, a decrease of $4.13 or 4.9%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $83.17 per barrel, a decrease of $4.16 or 4.8%. Continuing the downward trend from last Friday, it hit a new low in three months. Due to the substantial easing of the geopolitical situation between the United States and Iran, the two sides have reached a memorandum of understanding, and the expectation that the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume navigation has led to a rapid disappearance of the risk premium supporting oil prices. However, in terms of fundamentals, a short-term pullback does not mean that the energy supply crisis is completely resolved, and the medium and long-term trend of oil prices still faces multiple games and uncertainties.
In terms of supply, PTA production has fluctuated and rebounded, with current PTA production increasing to around 68%, indicating an increase in market supply. With the restart of some maintenance equipment, the PTA inventory reduction in June has narrowed, and inventory reduction will continue in July.
In terms of demand, downstream polyester filament and short fiber manufacturers continue to reduce production to maintain prices, while there are signs of improvement in weaving end procurement and sales. The production of Jiangsu and Zhejiang elastic looms has increased for two consecutive weeks. Although the current situation of weak terminal demand has not changed, the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is at a historical low, and there is an expectation of replenishment. But the foreign trade orders are weak, and the expectations for textile and clothing exports from Europe and America are average. Therefore, there is a strong wait-and-see attitude, making it difficult to have sustained purchasing pull.
Analysts believe that the short-term cost center has shifted downward, with no significant improvement in demand during the off-season, and prices are still adjusting weakly with fluctuations.
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