In June 2026, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market fluctuated at a low level, with an average price of 16500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of June 10, the average price was 16045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.75%.
Since the beginning of June, lead prices have shown a three-stage trend of “sideways – breaking – sharp decline”: June 1-3: lead prices fluctuated narrowly, and the market was in a “calm before the storm”. June 4-5: Prices continued to plummet, and the production of recycled lead resumed, with supply pressure becoming apparent. June 8-10: The decline suddenly accelerated and hit a new low since March 2024. The Wanliu Pass is in imminent danger.
Fundamental analysis of the reasons for the sharp decline in this round: concentrated release of supply vs “vacuum period” of demand
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
The expected resumption of production of recycled lead has created pressure on supply growth: as of June 4th, the operating rate of recycled lead has been rising for four consecutive weeks, while the operating rate of downstream lead-acid batteries has been declining against the trend, forming a typical supply-demand mismatch of one rise and one fall.
The shortage of raw material supply provides cost support. Lead ore processing fees continue to decline, with domestic and imported processing fees decreasing weekly, and processing fees remaining in the negative range, forming rigid cost support for lead prices. Although the price of waste batteries has slightly fallen, it is still at a high level. With the expansion of losses for recycled lead enterprises, refineries are reluctant to sell at low prices, which has a bottoming effect on lead prices and limits the potential for deep price declines.
demand side
Downstream ‘buy up, not buy down’: The finished inventory of battery companies is at a relatively high level, and the pace of raw material procurement is slowing down, making it difficult to form an effective driving force for lead prices. Although there is some support for the demand in the energy storage field, the overall volume is limited, making it difficult to offset the seasonal decline in traditional demand.
Inventory end
LME lead inventory has reached a temporary high after consecutive large deliveries, with a cumulative decrease of 3650 tons in the past week, showing a trend of destocking. There is still a shortage of high-quality lead ingots in Southeast Asia, and spot lead maintains premium trading. However, there was a signal of accumulated lead inventory in the previous period; As the delivery date approaches, implicit inventory turns into explicit inventory, further highlighting the pressure of accumulated inventory. The intertwining of long and short signals of a decrease and an increase in dual reserves indicates that overall, the loose supply and demand pattern in China has not fundamentally changed.
Overall summary
In the short term, lead prices are facing multiple pressures, but there are strong cost support barriers around Wan Liu. The short-term swing indicator has entered the oversold zone, and the random indicator may have a bottom deviation, and a technical rebound is imminent. But the rebound requires the ability to match the quantity. If the rebound is not substantial, it will still be a continuation of the decline. In the mid-term, there is usually a 3-5 week inertia decline or low-level oscillation. The core operating range is expected to be between 15800-16400 yuan/ton, with 16000 yuan below being an important psychological barrier and technical support level.
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