Since June, the price trend of heavy rare earths in the market has been rising. Due to the increase in terminal demand, market activity has gradually increased, and trading has improved compared to before. In addition, the strategic position of rare earths has risen, the pricing logic has been reshaped, and there have been fewer low-priced sales, resulting in an overall improvement in the market situation.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
Supply side: Multiple contractions form a ‘perfect storm’
Myanmar is the most important source of heavy rare earths in the world, accounting for about 57% of China’s total rare earth imports. Since 2026, Myanmar’s mineral imports have plummeted by 42% year-on-year. Some ports have restricted customs clearance, directly cutting off the supply of key medium and heavy rare earth raw materials. At the same time, Vietnam has legislated to ban the export of rare earth ore since that year, further cutting off external supplementary channels. The second batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2026 will significantly decrease by 19% compared to the second batch in 2025, shifting from an increase to a decrease. The quota for mining medium and heavy rare earths has maintained zero growth for several consecutive years. In addition, the market originally expected that recycling rare earths could increase supply, but some recycling companies were unable to obtain complete legal certificates for their waste sources, resulting in unsold products and even forced production cuts and shutdowns. The supply of recycled rare earths did not increase as scheduled, and the heavy rare earth market rose.
Policy side: Rising strategic position, reshaping pricing logic
On June 15th, the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law of the People’s Republic of China officially came into effect, and 36 key minerals including rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, gallium, germanium, etc. were officially included in the national strategic mineral resources catalog. This marks the official shift of rare earth pricing from cyclical products to a “strategic resource+policy constraint” driven logic, with national policies benefiting the domestic rare earth market.
Demand side: Double click between AI and new energy, increasing demand
Dysprosium oxide is the core raw material of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC). According to estimates, the combination of AI servers and MLCC for new energy vehicles will bring an additional demand for 1500 tons of dysprosium in 2027, while the global annual supply is only about 3500 tons, and 90% of the production capacity is controlled by China. Japanese MLCC giant Murata has only 30 days of dysprosium inventory left, and production stoppage in July and August is a high probability event. The supply-demand gap has just been torn apart, and the price elasticity is huge. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 55%, and the demand for permanent magnet motors has rigidly increased. In addition, due to policy driven energy efficiency standards for wind power and industrial motors, the penetration rate of rare earth permanent magnet motors continues to rise, leading to an improvement in demand and a rise in the heavy rare earth market.
Market forecast: Starting from 2026, the global supply and demand gap for rare earths may continue to widen, and rare earth prices are expected to remain stable with some progress; In addition, the price of heavy rare earths has shown a significant downward trend, and the price center continues to rise. Since June, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have risen, with prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, and dysprosium metal all showing an upward trend. As of the 17th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.415 million yuan/ton, an increase of 10.98%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.37 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10.93%; The price of dysprosium metal is 1.945 million yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 9.53%.
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