1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s bulk data list, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on March 29 was 5333.33 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the 23 day of the beginning of the week. On March 22, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.58, which was flat compared with yesterday, and increased by 13.93% compared with the same period last year. On March 29, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.58, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.60% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 27.90% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now) / P >

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the phosphoric acid market is light and stable, the market trading is OK, there are not many new orders, and the market is weak. Affected by foreign public health events, the export situation is not good, domestic terminal demand is average, enterprises’ wait-and-see mentality is rising, and some enterprises slightly reduce their quotations. According to the monitoring of the business association, as of March 29, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5333.33 yuan / ton, that of Sichuan region was about 4700-5300 yuan / ton, that of Guangxi region was about 5350 yuan / ton, that of Beijing region was about 5400 yuan / ton, and that of all regions was mostly about 4700-5700 / ton. The market was generally weak and stable.

Industry chain: this week, the phosphorus ore market fluctuated slightly, and the overall stable operation is the main factor. At present, the phosphorus ore market in Guizhou has basically recovered, but the operating rate of production enterprises is not high, and low and medium load production is mainly for self use. At present, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus market has slightly increased, the market has increased, and the overall market of yellow phosphorus is light. The phosphate Market is not well traded and the demand starts slowly,

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are formic acid (17.09%), isopropanol (17.08%) and nitric acid (3.23%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 19.30%), crude benzene (- 15.83%) and ethylene oxide (- 13.16%). This week’s average was – 1.6%.

3、 Future forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society, the current phosphoric acid market is not volatile, with a slight decrease in some areas and a weak and stable market. The phosphoric acid market is expected to remain weak and stable in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large scale list, this week’s decline of pure benzene continued last week. Last week’s price of pure benzene was 3500-4000 yuan / ton (average price 3800 yuan / ton); this week’s price of pure benzene was 2850-3700 yuan / ton (average price 2940 yuan / ton), down 860 yuan / ton from last week, down 22.63%.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: this week, the price focus of pure benzene has shifted sharply again. Continuing the situation last week, Sinopec continued to fall for two consecutive times this week, with the listing price of pure benzene reduced by 800 yuan / ton to 2900 yuan / ton. The fundamental contradiction of pure benzene is gradually increasing. Raw materials: the crude oil price is low, the price of pure benzene in the external market continues to fall, the arbitrage window in the internal and external market opens, and the arrival volume of imported pure benzene increases. In terms of downstream demand: the overall downstream starting load this week shows a downward trend, with poor terminal demand. Port inventory: this week’s port inventory is significantly higher than last week’s, and refinery inventory is high. Multiple negative effects, this week pure benzene fell endlessly.

3. Outside: compared with March 20, South Korea’s import of pure benzene fell by 105.33 USD / ton, or 24.88%; East China’s import of pure benzene fell by 95.5 USD / ton, or 22.21%. At present, the arbitrage of internal and external market is open, and the arrival volume is increased, hitting the domestic pure benzene market.

3. Crude oil: this week, the oil price was in the bottom shock. Oil prices rallied in the middle of the week in favor of a massive US economic stimulus plan. But the week was still down, with concerns that demand for oil continued to be negative. Compared with March 20, Brent fell 16.86% and WTI fell 2.93% this week. Compared with February 28, 2020, Brent fell 58.21% and WTI fell 44.04% this month. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent decreased by 68.4% and WTI by 58.61%.

4. Downstream industry: the overall operating rate of downstream products of pure benzene decreased this week.

The operation rate of styrene plant in China has been reduced, the domestic supply has been reduced, and the situation of arrival at the port has been reduced compared with that in the earlier stage. This week, the styrene market price fell continuously, and most domestic enterprises reduced prices and promoted sales. Friday’s price was 4716.67 yuan / ton, down 6.29% from last week and 44.29% from the same period last year.

This week, the market price of aniline was stable, individual enterprises shut down their equipment, and the supply and demand were balanced. On Friday, the price in Shandong is 5900 yuan / ton, and in Nanjing is 6150 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: crude oil fundamentals are weak. Although the United States proposed economic stimulus plan, overseas health events are not optimistic. Oil prices continue to be under pressure.

2. Market: the downstream operating rate has declined, and the demand for pure benzene is difficult to improve. The low price of hydrogenated benzene impacts the pure benzene market. In addition, the pure benzene plant is willing to increase the load, so the inventory pressure will increase.

The contradiction between supply and demand has increased, the short-term market is difficult to get a substantial improvement, and the price of pure benzene is still possible to be lowered.

1、 Price trend of propylene oxide:

(Figure: P value curve of propylene oxide product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the market of propylene oxide fell this week, according to the data of the bulk list of business agencies. Recently, the price of raw materials has risen, the cost of propylene oxide plant has been under pressure, and the market supply has increased, but the downstream terminal demand is not enough to follow up, and the on-site wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. As of the 27th, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 8166.67 yuan / ton, down 2.78% compared with the beginning of the week. Compared with the same period last year, it was down 19.14%. On the 27th, the cash delivery price in Shandong mainstream market of Wanhua chemical was 8200 yuan / ton. On July 27, the main quotation of propylene oxide Market in East China was around 8000-8100 yuan / ton, that in Shandong was around 7850-8100 yuan / ton, and that in South China was around 8000-8100 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market price of propylene in Shandong region in the upstream (3.23-3.27) rose by 3.17% this week. On the 27th, the market turnover was 5800-6000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 5900 yuan / ton. Influenced by the OPEC meeting and various international economic policies, the international crude oil prices went up and down sharply: on the 16th, the prices fell again, on the 17th, on the 18th, and on the 19th, the prices rose slightly. On the 20th, the crude oil prices rose significantly, on the 23rd, and on the 24th, the crude oil prices rose again, and on the 25th and 26th, the prices fluctuated slightly. Due to the low production and inventory of propylene before, the decline in the early period was not significant, and the follow-up trend in the later period was also obvious, but it began to rise on the 24th, with a steady rise. At present, there are many propylene manufacturers stopping production and maintenance, and the inventory pressure is small. At the beginning of April, there may be more manufacturers starting operation, but the downstream butanol and octanol losses are large, and the PP futures will decline significantly. It is expected that the propylene price will start to stabilize in recent days, and may decline in the later period. 27, downstream soft foam polyether, market range finishing, downstream buying is still insufficient. 27, downstream rigid foam polyether, market weak consolidation.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 12th week of 2020 (3.23-3.27), there are 10 kinds of commodities rising month by month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical sector, including 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are formic acid (17.09%), isopropanol (17.08%) and nitric acid (3.23%). There are 40 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 14 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 16.1% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products falling are pure benzene (- 19.30%), crude benzene (- 15.83%) and ethylene oxide (- 13.16%). This week’s average was – 1.6%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the propylene oxide analyst of the business club, the price of raw materials has increased recently, and the cost pressure of propylene oxide has increased, but the downstream digestion has not been followed up. Under the double attack, it is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be dominated by weak finishing, and more attention should be paid to the change of the price of raw materials and the operating rate of the plant.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data from the business agency, the market of chloroform in Shandong Province is weak and stable. At the beginning of the week, the price of chloroform was about 1550 yuan / ton, down 18.42% from the beginning of March.

2、 Cause analysis

Product reason: at present, the production of chloroform enterprises in Shandong Province remains normal, the market spot supply is relatively sufficient, and the downstream market and traders are short of rigid demand, which leads to the increasing inventory pressure of enterprises, and the situation that the supply exceeds the demand in the industry is gradually revealed. At present, the quotation in Shandong Province is about 1550 yuan / ton, in Jiangxi Liwen about 2200 yuan / ton, and in Jiangsu about 2700 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the production and sales of regional production enterprises in the domestic methanol market are basically balanced, and the inventory is kept within the controllable range, but the demand side is still insufficient, at present, about 1612 yuan / ton; the overall production of the liquid chlorine market is relatively stable, and the demand of the downstream market is poor, at present, about 100-300 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the demand side of domestic refrigerant market is mainly rigid demand, and the production of enterprises is gradually recovering; in the recovery of pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry, the rigid demand is weak, and the price support for chloroform is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, the demand side of trichloromethane market is not well supported, and the enterprise’s inventory pressure is increasing day by day. However, due to the high production cost, the enterprise is not willing to sharply reduce the price, and it is expected to maintain a weak stability in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: the market price of MTBE fell sharply in March

According to the data of the business agency, the market price of MTBE fell sharply in March. At the end of March, the price of MTBE was 3450 yuan / ton, down 22.18% from 4433 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

Products: in March, the price of international crude oil fell sharply, the demand of gasoline market was limited, and the price of domestic gasoline market fell by 19.16% in March. In March, the price of MTBE market went down all the way, with a slight rebound at the end of the month.

Industry chain: in March, Saudi Arabia and Russia announced production increase one after another, and the overseas epidemic spread. The international oil price fell sharply, and the demand of the refined oil market was not strong. The price of the refined oil market followed the crude oil price all the way down.

Market: in the first ten days of March, the price of international crude oil market keeps falling, the price of gasoline keeps falling, the end consumption of gasoline is still not fully recovered, at the same time, the domestic supply capacity is very abundant, and the price of domestic MTBE market keeps falling. In the late ten days, international oil price rebounded slightly, gasoline production increased further, MTBE just needed to recover gradually, but at the end of the month, the international crude oil price fell again to the low level of $20 / barrel, the trading sentiment in the gasoline market turned into a downturn, MTBE looked down after the market, and the market price fell back. In the late ten days, domestic MTBE market prices rebounded slightly, but the overall trend in March was still declining.

3、 Future forecast

According to MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency, international oil price continues to decline, MTBE price falls to a historical low since the monitoring of business news agency, in addition to refinery resumption and gasoline production increase, it is expected that MTBE market price will continue to decline with limited space.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business association, on March 30, the nickel price was 93266.67 yuan / ton, up 0.07% from the previous day, down 9.57% year on year. Shanghai nickel opened at 92980 yuan, followed by a wide range of price shocks, closing at 93210 yuan, down 0.25%.

2、 Market analysis

Last week, domestic and foreign inventories both fell, London Metal Exchange (LME) 27 Lun Ni inventory reduced 30 metric tons, the latest inventory was 229488 metric tons. Last week, LUNI inventory continued to decline, with the total weekly inventory decreased by 1236 metric tons to 229488 metric tons, a decrease of 0.54%. Domestic nickel inventory in Shanghai decreased 1478 tons to 28671 tons last week, down 4.9%, the lowest level in nearly five months. Supply disruption concerns caused by stoppage of mines and blocked imports eased market pessimism slightly, but the demand outlook remained bleak.

3、 Future prospects

Future market forecast: supply and demand are weak, and nickel price is expected to fluctuate mainly in low level.

On March 30, 2020, the average price of domestic spot aluminum ingots was 11490 yuan / ton, starting to stop falling and stabilize.

According to the data of business agency, as of March 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 11490 yuan / ton, down 12.87% from the average market price of 13186.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (March 1).

Strengthening the support of falling cost

At present, the price of aluminum ingots touches the cost of some manufacturers. Since late March, there have been about 6 domestic enterprises (including the plan) that have concentrated on production reduction and maintenance, affecting the capacity scale of 445000 tons / year. Although in the first quarter, Inner Mongolia Mengtai, Inner Mongolia Guyang, Guangyuan Zhongfu (phase I), baikuangtianlin, Yunnan Aluminum Heqing (phase II) and other enterprises have a total capacity of about 1.1 million tons of electrolytic aluminum, and the expected operating rate will not be too high.

Expected market outlook

According to the historical price trend, the current price is not high and the cost is strongly supported. In the second quarter, the demand is expected to turn warm. It is expected that the near-term rate will be stable and strong.

1、 Price data

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of gasoline and diesel kept stable operation this week, with small fluctuation range. The domestic gasoline price was 5221 yuan / ton, 0.36% higher than last week’s gasoline price; the domestic diesel price was 5361 yuan / ton, 0.52% lower than last week’s diesel price.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Products: crude oil futures prices fluctuate at the bottom, domestic enterprises return to work to stabilize the demand market for refined oil, the transaction and price are all in an upward trend, and the market price of refined oil keeps stable this week.

Industry chain: at present, many countries have increased their fiscal policies, and the central banks of many countries have released water to support economic development; as of the week of March 20, the crude oil inventory in the United States has dropped by 1.25 million barrels; market information is good for the international crude oil market, while the international oil price has dropped to a low level, and there is limited space for further decline. International oil prices are bottoming out this week.

Market: in recent years, the international oil price has been in a downward trend, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices have fallen to a low level. This week, the international bottom has been built up, which greatly stimulated the enthusiasm of downstream customers for replenishment. At the same time, the resumption of domestic enterprises has driven up market demand and improved market transactions. However, in the early stage, the refinery was shut down and started one after another. The average starting load of the unit was 61.84%, 9.15 percentage points higher on a month on month basis, and the supply of gasoline and diesel increased. This week, the market price of refined oil rose only a little and kept stable.

3、 Future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with the business association, believes that: at present, the crude oil market price is at the bottom of the market. In addition, the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia shows no signs of turning around, and the action force in the oil product market is unknown. It is expected that the price of the oil product market will remain low in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose slightly this week and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week, it was a weekly low price of 5727 yuan / ton; on Thursday and Friday, it was a weekly high price of 5914 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 3.25%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Products: in March, the decline trend of propylene price in Shandong Province in the early stage of reform began. On the first day, the prices of some enterprises rose slightly. On the second day, the prices of the whole line rose slightly. On the third and the fourth day, the prices of most enterprises generally rose. On the fifth day, the prices of some enterprises increased by about 50-100 yuan / ton. On the sixth day, the prices of enterprises began to fluctuate up and down, but the range was relatively small. On the tenth day, the prices generally fell by 50-100 yuan / ton. On the eleventh day, the prices slightly fell by 50 yuan / ton The daily price slightly decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton, and the price decreased by 200-300 yuan / ton on the 13th. The price was stable on the 16th, and fell continuously on the 17th, 18th and 19th. Since the 20th, the price has been stable. The price began to rise on the 24th. Today, the price finally began to stabilize. At present, the market turnover is between 5800-6000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is around 5900 yuan / ton. At present, there are many propylene manufacturers stop production and maintenance, and the inventory pressure is relatively small. In early April, there may be more manufacturers to start.

Industry chain: upstream, influenced by the OPEC meeting and various international economic policies, the international crude oil price dropped sharply again on the 16th, slightly on the 17th, sharply on the 18th, slightly on the 19th, obviously on the 20th, obviously on the 23rd, slightly on the 24th, with little fluctuation on the 25th and 26th.

This week, PP market fell slightly, down 1.97% week on week, and PP futures market fell significantly, which had a certain negative impact on propylene.

This week, acrylic acid market declined slightly, with a weekly decline of 0.92%, which had little impact on propylene.

This week, propylene oxide market continued to decline, with a weekly decline of 2.78%, which had little negative impact on propylene.

This week, epichlorohydrin prices rebounded after a downward trend, with weekly gains and losses of 0, having little impact on propylene.

This week, the domestic price of n-butanol still fell, with a weekly decline of 2.24%, which has a certain negative impact on the negative impact of propylene.

This week, the octanol market continued to explore straight-line, the weekly decline has reached 5.81%, which has a more significant negative impact on propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the market price of isopropanol, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, continued to rise sharply this week, with a weekly increase of 17.08% and a 12 day increase of nearly 50%, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

The price of phenol Market in Shandong Province fell this week, down 4.80%, which had a negative impact on propylene.

Shandong acetone market slightly increased this week, with a weekly increase of 0.57%, which had little impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business society, the crude oil market has repeatedly been low due to the impact of the international crude oil market game recently. As the production and inventory of propylene are low before, the decline in the early stage is not significant, and the trend of follow-up in the later stage is also obvious. At present, propylene inventory is not much, and the operating rate is not high, so the manufacturer’s delivery pressure is small. However, in early April, it is expected that some enterprises will start construction one after another, and the downstream butanol and octanol will decline significantly. Although isopropanol is still rising, it is hard to support alone. It is expected that the price of propylene will start to stabilize in recent days, and may decline in the later period.

According to statistics of business agency, as of March 27, DTY of nylon filament in Jiangsu Province reported 15567 yuan / ton, down 1266 yuan / ton, down 7.52%, down 26.92% year-on-year; POY price of nylon was 13520 yuan / ton, down 800 yuan / ton, down 5.59%, down 26.36% year-on-year; FDY price of nylon was 17000 yuan / ton, down 1000 yuan / ton, down 5.56%, down 26.88% year-on-year.

Supply and demand imbalance, crude oil prices dive. On March 6, a new round of OPEC + “production reduction negotiations broke down. On that day, international oil prices plummeted 30% to around $30 / barrel. As of March 27, WTI crude oil fell 52.01% in March. Oil producing countries have begun to increase production and cut prices to seize the market. Saudi Aramco, a Saudi oil giant, said that its supply will reach 12.3 million barrels / day in April, while Russia responded that it has the ability to increase production by 500000 barrels / day to a record 11.8 million barrels / day. Iraq, Nigeria, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and other countries have also announced to join the increase in production. Crude oil production is on the way, but demand is falling sharply. The novel coronavirus pneumonia spread worldwide, and the control measures in many countries and regions have been upgraded, aviation, transportation, travel reduction and economic activity slowdown. Crude oil may remain low.

Product March 1 March 27 up and down unit

Cyclohexanone 7350 6100-1250 yuan / ton

Caprolactam 10633 9267-1366 yuan / ton

PA6 (medium viscosity: 2.75-2.85) 12867 10633-2234 yuan / ton

Nylon FDY (40d / 12F) 18000 17000-1000 yuan / ton

Nylon DTY (70D / 24F) 16833 15567-1266 yuan / ton

Nylon POY (86d / 24F) 14320 13520-800 yuan / ton

Cost support collapsed, demand was flat, nylon raw material prices fell sharply. The price of cyclohexanone fell by 1200 yuan / ton in March, and the actual market price was between 5600-6100 yuan / ton. Caprolactam was down about 1300 yuan / ton, while PA6 was down about 2200 yuan / ton. The downstream consumption inventory is the main one, the purchase intention is not strong, PA6 inventory becomes a problem, with a large drop.

In March, some nylon enterprises were still in order production state because of the raw materials still in place years ago, the factory operation rate was low, the purchase intention was not strong, and the inventory cost was high to support the quotation. In the middle of March, most of the manufacturers successively lowered their prices, and some of them kept their weekly decline at about 500 yuan / ton in the near future. From the price trend chart of cyclohexanone and nylon POY, it can be seen that the crude oil price is low or hard to change. Cyclohexanone fell precipitously in the middle and last ten days of March, while the price trend of nylon POY is relatively flat, filament manufacturers are still digesting inventory and price exploration stage.

Crude oil is in low volatility, nylon orders are weak, with the consumption of inventory, cost reduction, pricing gradually downward. Business analysts believe that the cost support is insufficient, orders are also not optimistic, nylon is expected to continue to reduce.