Market Overview:

 
According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the dichloromethane market in Shandong remained strong, with an average price of about 2400 yuan / ton as of February 25, up 26.32% from 1900 yuan / ton on February 11.

Market analysis:

Products: due to the impact of enterprise parking, the spot supply of dichloromethane in Shandong is tight, including 440000 T / a plant in Jinling, Shandong, 40000 t / a plant in Jinmao, Dongying, 400000 T / a plant in Luxi Chemical, and 280000 T / a plant in Dongyue, Shandong. In addition, the logistics and transportation have just recovered, and the enterprise’s shipment is still not smooth, which depends on the inventory pricing. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2380-2400 yuan / ton; that in Jiangsu is about 2900 yuan / ton; that in Jiangxi is about 2750 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the terminal enterprises in the natural gas market have a high enthusiasm for returning to work, the market demand has increased, the overall trading has turned better, and the liquid price has increased continuously, at present, about 3190 yuan / ton; with the opening of domestic logistics and transportation, the trading atmosphere in the domestic methanol market has changed, and the trading volume has been significantly increased, at present, about 2022 yuan / ton; the overall supply and demand of the liquid chlorine market are weak, and the enterprise has a firm price mentality Strong but poor trading in the industry, currently about 100-300 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market is still at a low level, and the intra industry trading is relatively weak; the pharmaceutical and agricultural market and solvent industry are not at a high level, the demand is flat, and the price support for dichloromethane is insufficient.

Future forecast:

According to the methane chloride data analyst of business association, although the dichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong Province stop more and reduce the negative, the enterprise’s inventory pressure is still large, and the enterprise’s shipment depends on the inventory. In addition, the downstream market just needs to be flat, which lacks the support for the price of dichloromethane. It is expected to shake and adjust in a short time.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business association, affected by the increase of storage pressure, the domestic acetic acid market continues to weaken. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2300-2400 yuan / ton; in Shandong is about 2500-2650 yuan / ton; in Hebei is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; in Shaanxi is about 2050 yuan / ton; in Jiangsu is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; in Zhejiang is about 2650-2750 yuan / ton About RMB 2650-2750 / ton for delivery in South China.

2、 Cause analysis

Products: at present, the stock pressure of domestic acetic acid enterprises is generally high, and most enterprises reduce the negative production. With the gradual opening of logistics and transportation, acetic acid production enterprises make more profits to reduce the stock pressure and ship out, the market competition is more intense, but the start-up and recovery of the downstream industry is poor, the overall demand is weak, the situation of market supply exceeding demand is obvious, and the mentality of the industry is empty.

Industry chain: in the upstream, with the opening of domestic logistics and transportation, the trading atmosphere of domestic methanol market has changed, and the volume of transactions is significantly large, at present, about 2022 yuan / ton; the operating rate of domestic acetate, vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride industries is still low, the sales pressure of enterprises is large, and the cost support is insufficient, which is still weak in the short term; PTA spot market accumulation pressure is large, and the oil price stabilizes and recovers The cost support is acceptable, and the operation will fluctuate in the short term.

International: affected by the rise of methanol in North America, the price of acetic acid is firm, around 780 US dollars / ton; affected by the epidemic situation in Asia, the stock of enterprises is high, and the price is about 310-360 US dollars / ton. The supply and demand of European acetic acid market is stable, and the current quotation is about 620 euros / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to the acetic acid analyst of business association, the current situation of large overall inventory pressure in the industry is difficult to solve effectively in a short period of time. Under the influence of the epidemic situation, the downstream market starts to move slowly, and the situation of supply exceeding demand in the acetic acid market will continue. It is expected that the acetic acid market will operate in a weak position in a short period of time.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China was 563 yuan / ton on February 17, and 566 yuan / ton on February 24, with a price increase of 0.59%. On February 24, the ammonium sulfate commodity index was 47.42, which was the same as yesterday. It was 55.38% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 29.39% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: ammonium sulfate market rose slightly this week. The main quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 420-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 480-700 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-650 yuan, that in North China is 420-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: the downstream compound fertilizer market recovered, the enterprise operating rate increased significantly, and the market gradually recovered. The rise in raw material prices pushed up the price of compound fertilizer. Transportation has improved slightly, and transportation capacity has gradually recovered.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the seventh week of 2020 (2.17-2.21), there are 26 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are crude benzene (8.74%), propylene (8.45%) and ethanol (6.16%). There are 19 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products were hydrogen peroxide (- 4.78%), acetic acid (- 4.24%) and TDI (- 4.05%). This week’s average was 0.1%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of ammonium sulphate of the business association, the market of coking grade ammonium sulphate is getting better gradually, the supply of domestic grade ammonium sulphate is in short supply, the starting price is low, and the manufacturers are actively pricing up. It is expected that the coking grade ammonium sulfate will increase slightly in the later stage, and the weak finishing of the domestic grade ammonium sulfate will be the main one.

1、 Price trend of lithium carbonate:

(Figure: P value curve of lithium carbonate product)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: the market of lithium carbonate was stable on the 24th. The production enterprises in Sichuan and Jiangxi started one after another, with limited downstream demand and strong on-site waiting atmosphere. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China on February 24 was 43900 yuan / ton, which was the same as last Friday (February 21), down 39.86% compared with the same period last year. On February 24, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 51200 yuan / ton, which was the same as last Friday (February 21), down 38.46% compared with the same period last year. At present, the mainstream price of industrial lithium carbonate market is around 41500-47000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of battery lithium carbonate market is around 50000-52000 yuan / ton.

On February 24, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 111.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 72.39% from 405.10 (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 13.51% from 98.54, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the price list of bulk commodities on February 24, 2020, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three commodities are fluorite (6.84%), urea (3.17%) and hydrochloric acid (2.81%). There are 14 kinds of commodities decreased on a month on month basis, and 1 kind of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top three products decreased were hydrogen peroxide (- 8.36%), chloroform (- 2.44%) and phenol (- 1.81%). The average rise and fall of this day is 0.03%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to analysts of lithium carbonate of business association, the market inventory of lithium carbonate is still there at present, and the downstream demand is recovering slowly, but there is no obvious improvement. It is expected that the market of lithium carbonate will stabilize temporarily in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic BDO market continued to wait and see. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of February 21, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9950 yuan / ton, up 1.57% month on month, up 5.64% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic BDO market continues to run light this week. Crane coal shut down on February 17 due to the fault, and Meike phase III shut down. The overall start-up was maintained at about 54.4%, down from last week. At the same time, the production enterprises mostly wait for the downstream start-up to adjust the start-up control inventory. The main downstream PBT and PTMEG are still at a low level, and other downstream production is slow to resume. In addition, long-distance transportation is difficult to recover effectively in a short period of time, the factory inventory is under pressure, and the shipment is difficult. Although there are a small number of orders, due to the sluggish terminal demand, the transportation is still limited, and the actual single trading is weak. With high inventory, most downstream stocks are expected to be bearish, and the game between supply and demand is still a major concern at present. Since the 17th, the road has been exempted from vehicle tolls, but in view of the restrictions on construction and transportation in some areas, the attitude of the operators is more negative.

In terms of equipment, this week, Heci stopped due to air separation unit failure on February 17, and the restart time was not determined; Kaixiang load dropped to 70%; Meike phase III stopped, and phase I and phase II units operated stably; Tianye phase I 30000 ton units operated normally, The restart time of other devices is to be determined; the current load of Dongyuan is 40%; the first phase of Tunhe river is shut down, the second phase is 5-60%; the load of Shaanxi chemical industry is 60%; the load of new industry is stable to 4.3%; the load of Guotai is heard to be 6-70%. The overall market operating rate this week is around 54.4%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking)

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, the market of methanol and methanol rose partially, and the trading atmosphere improved. The main transaction price in Inner Mongolia increased to 1500-1550 yuan / ton, the shipment was relatively smooth, the logistics and transportation gradually recovered, and the starting load of downstream olefin plants also increased. The centralized price of enterprises in Guanzhong region is 1500-1600 yuan / ton, and the low-end transaction is good. Ningxia, Xinjiang and other regions rose in the week, mainly supplying olefins. In terms of equipment, Baoji Changqing plans to raise the load to 80% for operation, while other load reduction enterprises have no new adjustment. At present, part of the industry has copied the bottom and entered the market, and the factory has a strong mentality.

Calcium carbide: this week, the domestic calcium carbide market showed regional uneven rise and fall, which was mainly caused by the different arrival conditions of different parts of the transportation recovery. This week, the ex factory price in Wuhai area was increased by 50-100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream ex factory price this week was 2750-2800 yuan / ton. However, recently, the delivery was slow, and the production enterprises have a backlog of inventory. The main reason is that the arrival volume of downstream PVC purchasing enterprises keeps increasing, and the policy of high-speed fee free also reduces part of the transportation cost, and the purchasing enterprises reduce their mentality. And the downstream PVC high storage pressure, the price is weak and difficult to change, control cost expenditure, calcium carbide price is difficult to have high price support. However, the price of upstream Lancan began to rise this week, with an increase of 30-50 yuan / ton. It is expected that the trend of carbide market will be initially lowered next week, and the number of trucks to be unloaded will continue to increase.

3、 Future forecast

This week, although the factory reduced the load, but the inventory has accumulated more than one month, and the low-level construction of each downstream, short-term replenishment demand is very small. Under the pressure of high inventory, manufacturers are in a state of mind of storing and shipping, but they are in a weak position in terms of receiving orders in essence, and most of the lower reaches have more bearish expectations, so they have strong resistance to high prices. Although the downstream construction and transportation have slightly improved, the contradiction between supply and demand is still intensifying. BDO analysts of business cooperatives predict that the domestic BDO market is still stable in the short term. In the long term, there is no excluding the risk of a downturn. Specifically, pay attention to the downstream resumption and transportation progress.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin:

(Figure: epichlorohydrin product p value curve source: business and social commodity analysis system)

2、 Market analysis:

Product: epichlorohydrin market fell this week, according to the data in the large list of business agencies. The market trading atmosphere is light, the downstream resumption of work is slow, the inquiry and replenishment are limited, coupled with the impact of logistics and transportation, the factory’s shipment is under pressure, and the focus of negotiation is down. As of the 21st, the main quotation of epichlorohydrin enterprises was around 11400 yuan / ton, down 1.48% compared with the beginning of the week and 2.92% compared with the same period last year.

On February 22, the epichlorohydrin commodity index was 93.93, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.75% from 133.71 (2019-10-29), the highest point in the cycle, and up 100.49% from 46.85, the lowest point on September 7, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Industry chain: the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China rose sharply this week, and some enterprises began to show a slight upward trend since last Thursday and Friday, with propylene up 8.45% this week. The average price of enterprises at the beginning of the week is 6103 yuan / ton; the average price of enterprises at the end of the week is 6618 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the seventh week of 2020 (2.17-2.21), there are 26 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are crude benzene (8.74%), propylene (8.45%) and ethanol (6.16%). There are 19 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products were hydrogen peroxide (- 4.78%), acetic acid (- 4.24%) and TDI (- 4.05%). This week’s average was 0.1%.

3、 Future forecast:

Epichlorohydrin analysts believe that the upstream propylene trend rose this week, with stronger cost support. The starting load of the downstream epoxy resin plant has been slowly increased, and more raw materials are consumed. The demand is less than expected. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the site. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market will be mainly integrated and operated. It is recommended to pay attention to the guidance of logistics transportation and downstream commencement.

1、 Acrylic price trend:

According to a large number of data on the list of business agencies, the acrylic market this week was temporarily stable. As of February 21, the average price of acrylic acid enterprises was 7066.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week. In a three-month cycle, it fell 4.93% year-on-year. On the 21st, the mainstream price of acrylic acid Market in China was about 7000-7100 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis:

Product: acrylic market is running smoothly this week. At present, the starting load of the plant is still low, the downstream resumption of work is advancing, and the market demand is gradually recovering. As of the 21st, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been temporarily stable, with 7600 yuan / ton of common acid and 8100 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way. Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. has 7500 yuan / ton of common acid and 8500 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is discussed in a single way. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has remained stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, acrylic acid The price is 7000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: this week, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price increased significantly, up 8.45%. At present, the market turnover is about 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6600 yuan / ton. At present, there are still many units in the upstream which are shut down for maintenance. In the short term, the supply is difficult to recover, and the propylene output is small. However, the terminal manufacturers have started to return to work one after another, and the logistics and transportation have also recovered. The demand for propylene has increased significantly. Moreover, the PP futures market has been climbing continuously, and the downstream promotes procurement. Therefore, it is expected that the propylene market price will continue to rise in recent days.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the seventh week of 2020 (2.17-2.21), there are 26 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are crude benzene (8.74%), propylene (8.45%) and ethanol (6.16%). There are 19 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top three products were hydrogen peroxide (- 4.78%), acetic acid (- 4.24%) and TDI (- 4.05%). This week’s average was 0.1%.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the acrylic analyst of business club, in the near future, the price of raw material propylene has been greatly increased, the cost support has been greatly increased, and the starting load of the industry is low. With the further recovery of downstream demand and transportation, it is expected that in the short term, the acrylic market will be stable, medium and upward, and more attention should be paid to the starting and downstream demand of enterprises.

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441#)

2. Latest price (2020.02.20): 12325 yuan / ton

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11800-12000 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 12000-12100 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 12100-12200 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12900-13000 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 12400-12500 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 12400-12500 yuan / ton 。

3. Analysis points:

On the domestic side, the logistics has not been fully recovered, the supply of goods is generally tight, the price of the goods holders is firm, most of the manufacturers in Yunnan, Fujian, Hunan and other production areas who produce the corresponding specifications are in the early stage of production suspension, and the factory and social inventory are low.

On the foreign side, there is a strong demand in foreign countries, with a large amount of reserve consumption in the early stage and a low level of inventory. At present, there is a strong demand for replenishment of inventory. Several large-scale foreign aluminum alloy enterprises have started a new round of bidding. Recently, foreign bidding orders have been released, especially some high-grade special specification orders.

4. Future forecast: it is predicted that the short-term operation of metallic silicon will be mainly strong.

Recently, the price of rare earth in China has increased significantly. Since the middle of February, the price of heavy rare earth in China has increased by 9.4%. Supported by the market price of heavy rare earth in China, the market price of light rare earth has increased accordingly. The price trend of some rare earth products in China is as follows:

In recent years, the market price of heavy rare earth in China has risen sharply, with a rise of 9.4% in February. As of the 20th day, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.785 million yuan / ton, with a rise of 5.0%; the price of dysprosium metal was 2.325 million yuan / ton, with a rise of 9.41%; the market price of some light rare earth in China has also risen, with a rise of 362500 yuan / ton as of the 20th day, with a rise of 1.26%; the price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 286500 yuan / ton, 2 The monthly increase was 2.69%. In recent years, the domestic price of heavy rare earth has increased substantially, and the market price of light rare earth has increased correspondingly. Affected by favorable national policies, the domestic rare earth market has improved.

On February 19, the rare earth index was 343 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 65.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 1000 (2011-12-06), and up 26.57% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

In recent years, the price of rare earth in the rare earth market has risen sharply. In recent years, Myanmar has unilaterally banned the export of rare earth, which has led to a sharp decline in the import volume of domestic heavy rare earth. In addition, the south is a serious epidemic area, and rare earth Enterprises in the South have not fully resumed their work, the supply of domestic heavy rare earth has decreased, the contradiction between the supply and demand of domestic heavy rare earth is sharp, and the market price of heavy rare earth has risen sharply. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased recently, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium series products has rebounded, the on-site supply is normal, the demand for light rare earth in the near future is general, and the market price has not increased much. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to the national environmental protection supervision. Rare earth production has particularity, especially some products have radiation hazards, which makes the environmental protection supervision more strict. Affected by the epidemic, transportation is limited to some extent, and the price trend of some rare earth products remains stable.

According to the Ministry of industry and information technology and other documents, by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for about 25%. Global electrification is stepping into the acceleration period of high-quality models at the supply side. China’s double point policy and European carbon emission requirements have established a long-term development mechanism for new energy vehicles. Driven by national policies, the supply and demand pattern of rare earth industry is expected to further improve, domestic demand in China has improved, and the price of heavy rare earth in domestic rare earth market remains high. Recently, the Ministry of natural resources and the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the notice on the issuance of the total amount control index (the first batch) for the exploitation of rare earth ores and tungsten ores in 2020, which clarified that the total amount control index for the exploitation of the first batch of rare earth ores (rare earth oxide REO) in China is 66000 tons, and the total amount control index for the exploitation of tungsten concentrate (65% of tungsten trioxide) is 52500 tons.

Rare earth analysts of the business agency expect that in the near future, the intensity of strict environmental protection inspection in China will not be reduced, and the import of heavy rare earth in China will be blocked, and the supply and demand pattern is improving in a good way. It is expected that the price of heavy rare earth in the rare earth market will continue to rise, and the light rare earth affected will also rise slightly.

According to statistics, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in China is stable for the time being. As of February 20, the price of phthalic anhydride by o-phthalic method is 5750 yuan / ton. Recently, the price of phthalic anhydride in China has stopped falling and stabilized, the demand of plasticizer industry has improved, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is stable for the time being.

In the near future, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable. Affected by the epidemic situation, the transportation of chemicals is limited, and some phthalic anhydride manufacturers are still in stock. However, with the gradual resumption of downstream enterprises, the shipment situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers has recovered, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is stable. The market price of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in East China is temporarily stable, the downstream factories are back to work orderly, and the inventory pressure of the factories has decreased, but the high-end transactions are blocked, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is volatile. In East China, the main flow of negotiation of neighboring method source is 5500-6000 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method source is 5400-5700 yuan / ton; in North China, the main quotation of phthalic anhydride market is 5400-5800 yuan / ton, the price trend of most manufacturers in the field is stable temporarily, and the downstream construction is improved, but the main purchase is on demand, with a strong wait-and-see mentality. The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is under normal operation, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride in the field is normal, Phthalic anhydride market is mainly stable.

In the near future, on February 20, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream products was 5800 yuan / ton. The import price of phthalic anhydride in the port area fell and the price fell. In the near future, the price of phthalic acid in the port fell and the price of phthalic acid in the external market fell. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Due to the stable trend of upstream raw material phthalic acid price, the market price of phthalic anhydride was temporarily stable.

In the downstream, the price of DOP raw material isooctanol decreased, the cost of DOP raw material decreased, DOP enterprises operated at low load, during the anti epidemic period, logistics was limited, transportation was difficult, and DOP manufacturers’ inventory increased. The price of DOP fell, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers was poor, the price of downstream PVC fell, and the equipment of PVC enterprises started at a low level. The main quotation in DOP market is about 7100-7500 yuan / ton, a small amount of market plasticizer is traded, the low price trend in the downstream is fluctuating, and the upstream ox price remains fluctuating. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will maintain fluctuating trend in the later period.