Market Overview:

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business association, after March, the dichloromethane market in Shandong Province has been in a weak and stable operation. As of March 10, the average price of dichloromethane has remained around 2500 yuan / ton.

Market analysis:

Product: after entering March, due to the influence of enterprise overhaul, the supply of dichloromethane in the market is relatively soft. However, due to the fact that it is in the off-season of dichloromethane, and the commencement of downstream market is delayed, the market demand is poor, and the overall supply and demand are weak. At present, Jinling and Dongyue units in Shandong Province have resumed production, and the market will present a situation of supply exceeding demand. At present, the quotation in Shandong Province is about 2500 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Province Liwen’s quotation is about 2850 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu’s quotation is about 2900 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: in the upstream, the trend of domestic methanol market is narrow and low. Some enterprises have adjusted prices for many times, but the reduction is not large. At present, about 1980 yuan / ton; the overall production of liquid chlorine market is relatively stable, and the downstream market intends to reduce the purchase price, currently about 100-300 yuan / ton. In the downstream, the domestic refrigerant market has gradually recovered, and the terminal demand is still weak, at present, about 17500-19000 yuan / ton; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry are not well started, the demand is just flat, and the price support for chloroform is insufficient.

Future forecast:

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, the dichloromethane production enterprises that shut down in the early stage in Shandong Province have resumed production in succession, the market supply has increased substantially, and the downstream demand has not improved significantly, which is expected to fluctuate downward in a short period of time.

On March 9, the PX commodity index was 49.60, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.56% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 8.89% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China has declined significantly, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi has been started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai has been started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant has been overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical has been put into operation, other units have been operated stably temporarily, and domestic p-xylene plant has been opened The working rate is about 70%, and the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. However, the price of crude oil has plummeted recently, and the market price of p-xylene has been affected. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 9, the closing price of PX market in Asia dropped by 100 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 562-564 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 582-584 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. The sharp decline of external price has a certain positive impact on the market price of PX in China, and the market price trend of PX is significant Fall back.

WTI crude oil futures market prices plummeted in the US, with major contracts down $10.15 to 31.13 yuan / barrel. Brent crude oil futures market price plummeted, the main contract was 34.36 US dollars per barrel, a drop of 10.91 US dollars. At present, the collapse of OPEC + cooperation has led to a punitive drop in oil prices. The sharp drop in crude oil prices is bad for domestic chemical prices, and the trend of domestic p-xylene prices has declined sharply.

In terms of downstream PTA, the price has dropped sharply to 3900-4000 yuan / ton in the near future, and the social inventory of PTA has increased sharply in the near future. It is understood that the current social inventory has exceeded 2 million tons, an increase of about 500000 tons compared with that before the festival. In recent days, crude oil price has plummeted and PTA period price has fallen again. At present, terminal weaving enterprises are not expected to return to work. Inventory pressure is transmitted to all links of the industry chain from bottom to top. PTA supply and demand contradiction is more prominent. In the later stage, it will still present a weak pattern. The downstream construction is generally delayed. In addition, PTA supply remains relatively resilient, resulting in the market accumulation exceeding expectations and PTA market price falling sharply Benzene prices have declined.

In recent years, the trend of crude oil price has declined sharply, which has a certain negative impact on the xylene market. In addition, the demand at the downstream of the terminal has not improved significantly. Business analysts believe that PX market price may continue to decline.

Although the polypropylene market is still in a pattern of oversupply, the pattern of oversupply has not deteriorated, but shows signs of improvement in the context of active production reduction of production enterprises and centralized resumption of downstream enterprises. It can be judged that yesterday’s decline of polypropylene period price was mainly affected by the cost side.

The price of raw materials fell sharply

OPEC 2 monthly report estimates that in 2020, global crude oil demand will be 100.73 million barrels / day, non OPEC supply will be 66.6 million barrels / day, OPEC unconventional oil and gas and NGL production will be 4.83 million barrels / day, then OPEC crude oil production will be 29.3 million barrels / day, and global crude oil supply and demand will be balanced. In December 2019, OPEC announced another 500000 B / D reduction based on the previous production reduction agreement, and then Saudi Arabia announced an additional 400000 B / D reduction, i.e. OPEC reduced its production by 772000 B / D, with the production no more than 3038600 B / d. In January 2020, OPEC’s crude oil production was 28.859 million barrels / day, exceeding the production reduction task. If OPEC can maintain production at this level, the global crude oil supply will not be excessive, but will be in short supply. However, the decline in OPEC 1 crude oil production was largely caused by the decline in Libyan production, which is not the normal situation.

Not only that, at the end of February, social public events gradually spread from China to Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran and even the whole world. Its impact on the global economy is inevitable, which is bound to curb the consumption of crude oil, and the problem of global crude oil supply surplus is further intensified. This means that if the global crude oil supply needs to be balanced, OPEC must extend the production reduction agreement and further increase the production reduction. It was widely believed that OPEC would probably extend the period of production reduction for its own benefit.

However, at last week’s ministerial meeting, OPEC’s crude oil production will no longer be limited in April because of Russia’s opposition and the final failure to reach a production restriction agreement. Affected by this factor, the global crude oil price fell by about 30%, breaking through the $30 / barrel threshold, and the energy and chemical sector fell accordingly. Considering that the price limit of polypropylene is only 4%, which is far from releasing the negative effect of deep oil price drop, it is expected that in the next few trading days, on the premise of no obvious improvement in international oil price, the period price of polypropylene will continue to decline.

Enterprises need to return to work gradually

Affected by social public events, the resumption of downstream polypropylene production enterprises is limited, and the operating rate is at a low level for a long time. However, with the improvement of the situation, it is a fact that the supply and demand pattern of polypropylene is getting better. First, as of March 6, the operating rates in the fields of plastic knitting, CO injection molding and BOPP were 45%, 63% and 51.9% respectively, 13, 14 and 39.6 percentage points higher than that on February 7, respectively, and the downstream demand improved. Second, due to poor profits, polypropylene production enterprises have been shut down in the near future. In the week of March 8, the capacity involved in the overhaul of polypropylene production enterprises reached 4.44 million tons / year, and the operating rate fell 13.36 percentage points month on month. Third, with the decline of supply and the rise of demand, the inventory of two barrels of oil fell slightly.

The supply and demand pattern of polypropylene improved, but the upstream crude oil price fell sharply, and the cost collapse became the leading factor for the price drop of polypropylene yesterday. Considering that the decline of oil price is much higher than that of PP, PP will continue to decline in the future. After the bad situation is digested, more single bottoms will be selected.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agencies, as of March 9, the average price of domestic aggregate MDI market was 12075 yuan / ton, down 7.29% month on month and 21.08% year on year. The overall market fell significantly.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Poly MDI many traders reduce the factory price. Affected by the drop in international crude oil prices, the general mood of the industry is pessimistic. However, at the beginning of this week, Cisco’s guidance price was stable, no shipment was required, and its market stabilizing attitude was obvious, and traders’ quotations were also more stable. Some agents, considering the settlement price at the end of this month, cautiously quoted prices, and no longer continued to smash offers. However, the atmosphere of inquiry continued to be quiet and there was little negotiation.

In terms of market, South China aggregate MDI market is in a weak shock. Kostrong’s guiding price is stable and the attitude of stabilizing the market is stable. At present, the quotation of traders is more stable, and the downstream demand side has not changed significantly, so we will continue to wait and see the market change. The price of aggregate MDI market in East China is weak and volatile. At the beginning of the week, the guiding price of covestro was stable, the quotation of traders was more stable, and the downstream inquiry continued to be rare, so we continued to wait and see the market trends. The price of aggregate MDI in North China fluctuated. At the beginning of the week, the news was light. Kostrong’s guidance price was stable this week. It didn’t require shipment. Its attitude was stable. At present, there is no new change in downstream demand. Downstream operators are cautious to wait and see with goods, and traders’ quotations are somewhat extreme and conservative.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, pure benzene and crude oil plummeted, while spot buying of pure benzene in East China fell to 4500 yuan / ton. However, due to the low inventory of Shandong Delian, part of the offer was firm at 4900-5100 yuan / ton. But inquiry is rare, the mentality of the business is poor, and the market is mainly wait-and-see.

Aniline: aniline Market is mainly weak and stable, it is reported that some factories secretly reduce the shipment. Two sets of 100000 ton aniline plants in Jinling were restarted, and the supply of aniline is expected to increase in the current load lifting. In terms of price, the mainstream price of Shandong aniline is 6700 yuan / ton spot exchange and 6840 yuan / ton acceptance. For East China market, 6800-7000 yuan / ton will be accepted.

3、 Future forecast

Business Club view: Business Club aggregation MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic aggregation MDI market will continue to be weak, and pay attention to the manufacturer’s dynamic and downstream demand changes at any time.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, today’s domestic copper price fell sharply, offering 43520 yuan / ton, down 2.68% from the previous day, down 12.36% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

Spot copper prices fell sharply today. As oil prices plummeted and public health events hit market risk sentiment, China’s demand recovery was slow, metal inventories hit new highs and copper prices fell. According to the General Administration of customs, China’s foreign trade import and export from January to February 2020 decreased by 9.6% year on year. Copper inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange increased to 345000 tons, with a cumulative increase of 158.05% in the last seven weeks. Inventory exceeded expectations. However, there is a strong wait-and-see willingness in the downstream, and the overall trading performance is still average.

3、 Future prospects

Based on the above situation, the copper analysts of the non ferrous branch of the business society believe that: inventory accumulation, low consumption, high pressure on copper price, and weak in the short term.

According to today’s oil price news, the United States became a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products last month. In the last week of February, the average net import of crude oil and petroleum products was 907000 barrels / day. According to the weekly net import data of crude oil and petroleum products of the United States Energy Information Agency (EIA), this is the lowest “import” level in the EIA data since 1973.

According to EIA data, the United States has been a net exporter of crude oil and oil products every week since the beginning of 2020, in January and February.

The EIA said at the end of last year that the US exported more crude oil and oil products than it imported in September 2019, the first time the US has become a net exporter of oil since monthly records began in 1973.

The EIA said in December 2019 that due to the surge in US crude oil production and the lifting of export restrictions in 2015, as well as the continued growth in oil product production and exports, the US crude oil and oil product exports in September 2019 were 89000 barrels / day higher than imports.

In its energy outlook 2020, released in January this year, the EIA said that the United States will become a net exporter of oil and oil products this year due to continued growth in production and weak domestic demand.

Although it has the status of “net exporter of oil”, the United States is still a net importer of crude oil, and its crude oil import is still higher than its export.

According to the latest monthly data, the EIA said last month that in November 2019, US crude oil imports were 5.8 million barrels / day and exports were 3 million barrels / day.

In addition, the EIA points out that although the United States as a whole is a net exporter of oil at present, most other regions are still net importers of oil except the Gulf Coast region of the United States.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic methanol market this week fell in a narrow range. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2002 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, it was 1980 yuan / ton, down 1.12% in the week, 10.20% on month, 22.29% on year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the domestic methanol market trend is narrow and low. Some enterprises have adjusted prices for many times, but the reduction is not large. Due to the current low freight, the consumer market has little resistance to the market. Affected by the decline of futures prices, the port market fluctuates and falls, and the shortage of storage capacity is unfavorable to the port trend. At present, the resumption of traditional downstream products is slow, and the start-up of formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE and other products is lower than before the Spring Festival, so it will take time for the market to recover slowly.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: this week, the domestic formaldehyde market is in light and stable operation. Only a few of the enterprises resumed the construction, and the overall construction was at a low level. The upstream methanol market was in a narrow range. Some formaldehyde enterprises purchased a small amount at a low level. The cost of the formaldehyde market has no impact. The downstream market is still at a low level. The overall recovery of the demand side is slow, and the transaction is light.

Acetic acid: after the previous period of continuous decline, the profit of acetic acid itself is small, and the short-term downstream substantial demand continues to be weak. It is expected that there will be signs of load increase after the start of acetic acid ester industry in the middle of the month. PTA industry starts to be stable in the short term, the short-term negative situation of acetic acid market is difficult to ease, and the passive weak situation continues, but the expected decline is narrow.

Dimethyl ether: this week, the trading atmosphere of domestic dimethyl ether changed from weak to strong, and the main price showed signs of rising, but prices in some regions were adjusted flexibly. With the gradual return to work of the enterprise, the overall supply increases, while it is difficult to follow up the terminal demand, and the market supply is unbalanced, resulting in weak prices.

3、 Future forecast

From the perspective of business community: on the positive side, the traditional downstream gradually recovers; the domestic freight price is low, which is favorable for the price of the production area; the northwest MTO enterprise has the intention to store methanol which is currently lower than the cost price. On the negative side, the pace of factory resumption is significantly faster than that of downstream, and there is still pressure on market supply and demand; the pace of domestic infrastructure recovery is slow, and terminal demand is still weak. At present, the resumption of traditional downstream products is slow, and the commencement of formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE and other products are lower than before the Spring Festival, so there is limited space for methanol to rise. Based on the shutdown of most enterprises last week, the methanol analysts of the business club predict that the short-term domestic methanol market still has an inertial rise, and later needs to pay attention to the change of demand.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the market price of domestic ammonium nitrate is 2380 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price at the beginning of the week, up 15.16% year on year. On February 20, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 125.26, unchanged from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 61.90% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. The operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices is general. Affected by the epidemic situation, some ammonium nitrate enterprises have not yet started construction. The on-site supply is stable, and the price of manufacturers is mainly stable. In the near future, the on-site supply of goods is normal, but the recent transportation is subject to certain restrictions, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable. In the near future, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is general, the downstream is purchased on demand, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are limited to start work, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high. Up to now, the negotiation mainstream in Shaanxi is 2300-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2600 yuan / ton.

This week, the price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China was temporarily stable. The weekend price was 1500 yuan / ton. This week, the price trend was stable. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1500 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1450 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1550 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1780 yuan / ton. In the near future, the parking rate of domestic maintenance equipment is relatively high, the supply of concentrated nitric acid market is less, the situation of goods in the field is general, the price trend of nitric acid market is stable, the stable price of nitric acid is the good influence of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the market price of ammonium nitrate remains high.

The overall supply of liquid ammonia in the upstream market is normal, the unit operating rate of the enterprise is slightly higher, and the market price of liquid ammonia remains high. The main problems in Shanxi are peak load shifting, limited production and poor transportation. The transportation of liquid ammonia has also entered a bottleneck period. The long-distance and high-speed transportation has been restricted, with multiple factors superimposed, and the price of liquid ammonia has remained high this week. In addition, in the near future, part of the downstream continued to restart, the demand for liquid ammonia increased, and the price of liquid ammonia remained high. The overall price of liquid ammonia Market in the upper reaches fluctuated higher, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market was temporarily stable.

In the near future, the downstream demand is limited, but the raw material market price rises slightly, which has certain cost support for the market price of ammonium nitrate. Ammonium nitrate analysts of the business association believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain high volatility in the later period.

1、 Price trend

This week, the domestic market of cyclohexanone is weak. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic producers of cyclohexanone at the beginning of the week is 7350 yuan / ton, and the price of cyclohexanone at the end of the week is 7316 yuan / ton, down 0.45% in the week. The price is 0.90% lower than that of the same period last month and 34.08% lower than that of the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the cyclohexanone market is weak, the upstream and downstream markets are down, the narrow range of cyclohexanone is down, the mainstream factory is 7200-7300 yuan / ton, cash ex factory. Sinopec’s listing of pure benzene was reduced by 200 yuan / ton to 5150 yuan / ton, with insufficient cost support. Sinopec’s listing of caprolactam was reduced by 450 yuan / ton to 10800 yuan / ton. The load of caprolactam was low and the basic supporting cyclohexanone device was provided. The enthusiasm for market procurement was not good, the starting load of solvent plant was low, and the market delivery was light. In terms of price, 7400-7500 yuan / ton of peripheral cash in Shandong market, 7600-7800 yuan / ton in East China market, 7900-8000 yuan / ton in South China market.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: within the week, pure benzene rebounded after falling. Crude oil and pure benzene US gold market fell sharply, driving the focus of Shandong market to 4900 yuan / ton. The downstream factories began to bargain hunting, the pure benzene inventory of the refining plant was released, the pressure was reduced, and the price rebounded to 4950-5000 yuan / ton.

Caprolactam: the overall activity of the adipic acid market is not high this week, among which the latest hanging settlement is only slightly lower than that of last month, and it is still at a high level. The factory’s attitude to support the market is still the main constraint at present. The middle and lower reaches are still relatively resistant to high prices, the willingness to make up positions is not high, the direct supply of contracts is steadily promoted, the enthusiasm of the spot market is not high, and the lower reaches just need to make up positions, and the middlemen have won Under the interest will, the offer is obviously cautious, and a small amount of negotiation goes with the market.

Adipic acid: this week, adipic acid is in a chaotic downward trend. It is worth noting that most industries and enterprises in the downstream have been recovering in succession, and the logistics and transportation situation has basically improved. However, the overall load in the downstream is not high, the rigid demand for raw materials is small, and the purchase is cautious, and the production and sales are gradually weakening. And the weak raw material end, peripheral bad news more obvious hit market confidence

3、 Future forecast

From the cost point of view, pure benzene is in weak operation, with insufficient cost support, and there is a small profit margin for cyclohexanone; on the demand side, due to the low demand of the terminal market, the downstream caprolactam maintains low load operation, and the demand for solvent is relatively small. Shenyuan has newly added a supporting 250000 ton cyclohexanone unit, and it is expected that the downstream demand for cyclohexanone procurement is still low, but the recent shipment of cyclohexanone is not smooth, and it is available from stock Should be abundant, business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the short-term market weakness of cyclohexanone finishing.

On March 3, the PX commodity index was 49.60, unchanged from yesterday, down 51.56% from 102.40 (2013-02-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 8.89% from 45.55, the lowest point on February 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

According to statistics, the market price trend of p-xylene in China is temporarily stable, the operation of new 600000 ton plant in Hongrun is stable, the operation of petrochemical plant in Pengzhou is stable, 50% of petrochemical plant in Urumqi is started, one line of aromatics plant in Fuhai Chuang is started, CNOOC Huizhou refining and chemical plant is overhauled, the PX plant in Hengli Petrochemical is put into operation, other units are temporarily stable, and the operation rate of domestic p-xylene plant is stable About 70%, the domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal, but the recent crude oil price trend is rising, and the market price of p-xylene is affected by the price stability. The operating rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 3, the closing price of PX market in Asia increased by 12 US dollars / ton, and the closing price was 690-692 US dollars / ton fob in South Korea and 710-712 US dollars / ton CFR in China. More than 40% of PX in China needs to be imported. The rising price of external market has a certain positive impact on the domestic market price of PDT, and the market price trend of PX is temporarily stable.

WTI crude oil futures market rose in the US, with major contracts at 47.18 yuan / barrel, or 43 US dollars. Brent crude oil futures market price fell, the main contract was $51.86/barrel, down $0.04. Leonid fedun, vice president of Lukoil, Russia’s second largest oil producer, said that OPEC’s proposal to reduce production by 1 million barrels per day was enough to balance the market and push the oil price back to $60 per barrel. The rise of crude oil price is good for domestic chemicals price, while the domestic p-xylene price trend is stable for the time being.

In terms of downstream PTA, the recent price rose slightly to the level of 4250-4350 yuan / ton. The market expected OPEC production reduction and domestic stimulus policy, and crude oil rebounded, boosting chemicals. In terms of PTA supply, PTA plant restart and load reduction coexist, and the market supply increment is limited. At present, the overall operating rate is 81.54%. Due to the lack of downstream demand follow-up, the inventory continues to accumulate. In terms of demand, due to the impact of public health events, the downstream polyester and terminal textile industry resume slowly. The overall operating rate of polyester is at a low level of 63.32%, and the operating rate of terminal textile industry rises to 38%. The overall demand is strong Degree is still weak, PTA market price range shocks, p-xylene price trend temporarily stable.

Recently, the trend of crude oil price is rising, which has a certain positive support for the market of p-xylene, but the downstream demand of the terminal is not significantly improved, and the business analysts believe that PX market price may remain stable.