1、 This week’s price trend review: first suppressed and then rose, overall firm
This week, the price of melamine experienced a process of “downward adjustment, stabilization, and slight increase”:
Adjustment at the beginning of the week: The benchmark price remained at 6075.00 yuan/ton on November 3, and slightly fell 0.21% to 6062.50 yuan/ton on November 4.
Horizontal stabilization: From November 5th to November 8th, the price remained flat at 6062.50 yuan/ton for four consecutive days, indicating a clear bottoming feature in the market.
Weekend rebound: On November 9th, the price increased by 0.21% again to 6075.00 yuan/ton. As of November 10th, the overall market has risen by 0.21% compared to the beginning of the week, showing a strong and small upward trend.
Cost side:
On November 10th, the benchmark price of urea was 1752.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.43% from the beginning of this month. The slight increase in the price of urea, as the core upstream raw material of melamine, provides some cost support for melamine. This is also an important reason for the increased willingness of melamine manufacturers to raise prices in the second half of this week and the market no longer continuing to decline.
Comprehensive analysis and future prospects
Summary: This week, the melamine market is in a resonance period of “historical long-term low”+”cost side urea small rise support”+”short-term price technical rebound”. The market shows strong resistance to decline around 6060 yuan/ton.
Future outlook:
In the short term, the melamine market may continue to maintain a pattern of “firm consolidation and narrow fluctuations”. Focus on the following signals:
1. Key indicator: Pay close attention to whether the 10 day moving average can substantially cross the 20 day moving average upwards. If this signal is formed, it represents the start of a true upward trend.
2. Demand follow-up: Currently at a low level with a small increase, it is necessary to observe whether the downstream terminal’s willingness to receive goods improves with the mentality of “buying up, not buying down”. If the demand cannot be effectively amplified, the rebound space may be limited.
3. Raw material fluctuations: Continue to track the trend of urea prices. If the raw material continues to rise, it will further raise the bottom line of defense for melamine.
