This week, the price of raw material propylene remained relatively high, and the price of acrylonitrile increased significantly driven by costs. As of November 5th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market is 12800-13000 yuan/ton, an increase of 900 yuan/ton from last week; The mainstream negotiated price for delivery within the Shandong market area is 12550-12700 yuan/ton, an increase of 900-950 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Loose supply:
According to statistics, this week (October 30th to November 5th), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 72.95%, unchanged from the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 87100 tons, which is the same as the previous cycle. Supply continues to be loose, but local production reduction plans will gradually be implemented, and buying follow-up has also driven the recent decline in spot inventory. As of November 4th, the total inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China is about 42000 tons, which is 0.7 million tons compared to last week.
Average demand:
There was little change in the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries this week, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 55.5%, an increase of 1.3% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 70.38%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 57.76%, which was -0.91% compared to last week.
High cost:
The raw material prices remained high during the week, but at the same time, the price of acrylonitrile increased significantly, which improved the theoretical production loss situation of acrylonitrile. According to statistics, as of November 4th, the mainstream closing average price of the propylene market in Shandong was 11290 yuan/ton, and the average production cost of acrylonitrile was 14266 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 3.50%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -1506 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 857 yuan/ton.
Post forecast: As the international oil price drops significantly near the weekend, the cost support for acrylonitrile has weakened, and downstream buyers are resistant to high raw material prices, with low purchasing enthusiasm. The trading atmosphere in the spot market is average, but there is currently no pressure on industry inventory, and the cost side is unstable. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will follow the cost adjustment in the short term.
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