1、 Trend analysis
This week, nickel prices first rose and then fell. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 124183.33 yuan/ton, up 4.31% from the beginning of the week and up 2.84% year-on-year.
Indonesian RKAB enhances its sense of movement
The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mines has announced a global nickel surplus of 700000 to 800000 tons and is considering reducing its quota for 2027; Officials said that the tightening may expand and named Huayou and others to reduce production, causing disruptions in immediate circulation due to mining trade law enforcement. Quota management in the medium and long term, production reduction management in the present, and law enforcement as triggers have weakened bearish confidence, and policy expectations resonate with fund replenishment.
The US midterm elections have landed
The uncertain control of Congress before the election suppresses risky assets, and the strong yields of the US dollar and US Treasury suppress colored valuations. After the results were implemented, the market re priced, fiscal expansion was restricted, inflationary pressures eased, the US dollar fell, and risk appetite was restored. The external nickel market was the first to strengthen and transmit to Shanghai nickel, and the macro environment shifted from suppression to coordination.
In summary, there is a bottom of smelting loss costs and a bottom of Indonesia’s quota tightening policy. After recovering 120000 yuan, there is support for short-term strong fluctuations. However, the global surplus has not changed, with LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories of about 750000 tons. Domestic social inventories are still high, and refined nickel production is expected to remain stable in November. The reduction of HMA/HPM in the mining sector weakens cost hardness.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |