1、 Price trend: The center of gravity shifts upwards, and the end is flat
| Melamine |
Entering the second week of September (September 7th to September 14th), the melamine market showed a trend of “rising first and then stabilizing”. As of September 15th, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6250.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% from the beginning of this month (6175.00 yuan/ton).
From this week’s trend, the price was 6212.50 yuan/ton on September 7th, gradually rising in the following trading days. After breaking through to 6250 yuan/ton on September 10th, it entered a stable period. From September 11th to 14th, it remained stable at 6250.00 yuan/ton for four consecutive trading days, with zero daily increase or decrease. The overall market performance is stable, and the price center has shifted upward compared to the previous period.
2、 Moving average system: Long position arrangement, clear upward signal
From the price and moving average chart, it can be seen that the moving averages of each cycle this week show a clear bullish upward divergence feature: the 5-day moving average is located at the top, and the 10 day and 20 day moving averages are arranged downwards in sequence, all maintaining an upward slope.
The current 10 day moving average continues to operate above the 20 day moving average, with a positive moving average and maintaining an expanding trend. This is a typical continuation period after the moving average crosses, indicating that the early upward signal has been confirmed and short-term bulls dominate. However, it is worth noting that in recent days, the current price moving average has been in line with and leveled off the 5-day moving average, indicating a short-term stalemate at the 6250 yuan/ton level.
3、 Position and cycle: high in the short to medium term, still in the medium to low range in the long term
From the monitoring of location data, on September 14th, melamine was at a “high” level in the 10 day, 20 day, and 30 day periods, at a “medium high” level in the 60 day and 90 day periods, and remained at a “medium low” level throughout the year.
This indicates that the current upward trend mainly reflects the strength in the short to medium term. The price has reached the upper edge of the recent range, but in a longer annual cycle, the current price has not yet reached historical highs, and there is still early bottom support below.
4、 Cost driven: urea surge provides support
The upstream raw material urea of melamine has shown stronger performance this month. On September 15th, the benchmark price of urea was 1800.00 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 4.96% compared to the beginning of this month (1715.00 yuan/ton), and the increase was significantly higher than that of melamine (1.21%).
The rapid rise of raw material urea has formed a significant driving force on the melamine market from the cost side, which is the core logic for the shift of melamine price center and the maintenance of strength this week.
5、 Future prospects
Overall, driven by the rise in urea prices on the cost side, melamine achieved a price increase this week. The bullish arrangement of the moving average system confirms a strong pattern, and the market is operating steadily as a whole.
In the short term, with cost support and the upward momentum of the moving average, melamine is expected to maintain a high consolidation level; However, it is necessary to pay attention to the changes in momentum after the continuous flattening of prices. If the difference between the 10 day moving average and the 20 day moving average narrows (the moving average shrinks), we need to be alert to the adjustment signals brought by the downward crossing of the moving average. In the medium to long term, as the market remains at a mid to low level for one year, the overall valuation of the market has not shown extreme overvaluation. The subsequent trend will rely more on the sustainability of the raw material side and the follow-up of downstream demand.
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