On August 1, 2026, the electrolytic manganese market saw a slight increase. The spot market price in East China was at 18000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 18150 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.83%. In the first half of the year, the market remained sideways and watched, while in the middle half, prices rose slightly supported by enterprise production control and low inventory. In the second half of the year, prices stabilized and operated.
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There is rigid support on the cost side, and the slight decrease in manganese ore prices has eased the pressure on raw materials, but the prices of electricity, sulfuric acid, selenium dioxide and other auxiliary materials in the southwestern production area remain stable. The structural contradiction between supply and demand runs through the whole month, with supply side enterprises actively limiting production, tight supply of goods, and a strong mentality of raising prices; On the demand side, stainless steel is in the traditional off-season, with steel mills only purchasing for immediate needs and having a strong willingness to lower prices. The stable demand for lithium manganese materials only serves as a bottom line, and the market is mostly replenished as needed, resulting in overall low transaction volume. As the overseas summer break approaches its end, export inquiries have increased month on month, but there is insufficient follow-up on actual orders, which only slightly boosts market sentiment and fails to substantially boost the market.
In terms of manganese ore: In July, the overall import volume of manganese ore in China increased both month on month and year on year, and the cumulative import volume during the year was significantly higher than the same period last year. Overseas mineral sources continued to increase, and domestic port raw material inventories remained high. The overall supply environment of the mining end was loose. In August, mainstream overseas mining companies lowered their shipping quotes to China, while South African semi carbonate and Australian block shipping quotes decreased month on month. In September, forward shipping quotes continued to weaken, and long-term low-priced ore expectations continued to suppress the upper limit of electrolytic manganese raw material costs. In terms of supply structure, South African mines are still the main source of domestic imports, but the corresponding shipping schedule and arrival in August have declined compared to the previous month. Australian and Gabonese mines have received stable shipments, and there has been no significant adjustment in the supply structure.
The spot price of manganese ore in mainstream domestic ports fluctuates narrowly, and the trend is differentiated between grades: the spot price of high-grade Australian blocks remains firm, South African semi carbonate slightly strengthens, and low-grade high-speed iron manganese ore continues to fall; The high priced manganese ore at the port continues to accumulate inventory, traders are lowering prices to sell and recoup funds, smelters are purchasing sporadically according to demand, and there is no large-scale hoarding operation, resulting in a lack of sustained upward momentum in mineral prices. The overall production of domestic Yunnan Guizhou and Hunan local mines is stable, with only a small number of small-scale mines experiencing slight production reductions due to environmental protection and equipment maintenance, which has a weak impact on the overall raw material supply. The manganese price ratio in the field has been at a low level for a long time, and the purchasing pace of smelters is conservative, making it difficult for the mining end to continue raising prices.
On the supply side, the three core production areas of Guangxi, Guizhou, and Hunan generally implement staggered production and phased shutdowns. In August, the overall production capacity release rate of the industry was at a low level for the year, and most small and medium-sized smelters maintained half load production. The pace of resuming production for shutdown and maintenance enterprises was slow, and only the top large factories were operating at full load. The incremental increase brought by the new production line was limited, and the monthly total output of the industry slightly declined compared to July. Among them, less than half of the production enterprises in Hunan production area were in production, and the output increment further contracted. Combined with the regional quotation tracking of Shengshe, the ex factory price of the main production area has been lower than that of the East China circulation market for a long time; The industry generally adopts a sales based production model to control the pace of shipments. The inventory of finished products in smelters continues to be depleted and has fallen to a low level within the year. The market has a scarcity of low-priced circulating goods, coupled with the synchronous low inventory of traders in transit. There is no condition for a large amount of selling to suppress prices in the market, and manufacturers are reluctant to sell and maintain prices. Orders below the comprehensive cost are mostly not accepted, and there is very little room for spot discounts; Although the purchase price of manganese ore has slightly eased the pressure on raw material costs, the industrial electricity prices in the main production areas of Southwest China are running at a high level, and the prices of auxiliary materials such as selenium dioxide and sulfuric acid have not fallen back. The low operating state has also pushed up the fixed production cost per unit, and most small and medium-sized smelters are in a break even or slightly losing state, further suppressing the industry’s concentrated resumption of production. The short-term supply increment is difficult to release.
On the demand side: In August, the stainless steel industry entered the traditional off-season for consumption, with downstream end product orders weakening and processing plants contracting. Major steel mills completed the bidding for electrolytic manganese for the month, with top steel companies bidding prices remaining the same as last month. Local small and medium-sized steel mills lowered their bidding prices, and overall only maintained rigid demand procurement and obvious willingness to reduce prices. There was no pre concentration replenishment behavior. Although the spot price of 200 series stainless steel slightly rebounded, downstream pursuit of price was weak, and finished product transactions were sluggish, which in turn suppressed the purchasing power of electrolytic manganese; The demand for lithium manganese oxide and high-purity manganese sulfate in the lithium battery industry chain is stable, with leading precursor companies receiving monthly orders in a fixed quantity. The order scale is stable but without any increase, and can only support the basic market demand. The procurement rhythm of special alloy and electronic new material enterprises is normalized, mostly small batch scattered orders, with low sensitivity to manganese price fluctuations; In terms of overseas markets, the gradual end of the summer break in Europe and America has led to an increase in inquiries from overseas alloy factories and traders compared to the previous period, and the mentality of export merchants to support prices has rebounded. However, the recovery of overseas terminal orders lags behind, and the increase in actual transactions is limited. Overseas buyers have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and exports only play a role in boosting sentiment, unable to reverse the overall pattern of weak domestic demand.
In August, the domestic spot price of manganese silicon showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a low benchmark quotation at the beginning of the month and a significant increase in price at the end of the month, with a full month increase of nearly 4.8%. At the beginning of the month, the market was suppressed by low prices from steel mills during the off-season and high inventory from enterprises, resulting in low prices. In the middle of the month, the overall sentiment of the black series rebounded, coupled with a slight increase in manganese ore costs, driving the gradual rebound of manganese silicon spot prices. In the latter half of the month, the monthly bidding of steel mills was launched, and the bidding prices in various regions were raised compared to the middle of the month. The market transaction center continued to shift upward. The smelting plants in the main production areas of the supply side have continued to reduce production and the number of furnaces has decreased in the early stage, and the market circulation of goods has shrunk to some extent. However, the overall inventory in the plant is still at a high level, which limits the increase; The steel industry on the demand side is in a traditional off-season, with weak iron production from steel mills, only maintaining essential procurement, and no centralized replenishment actions. Price increases are more driven by costs and market sentiment. The narrow range strength of manganese ore at the raw material port, coupled with stable electricity and coke costs, provides support for the bottom of manganese and silicon. However, downstream actual consumption has not improved synchronously, and the sustainability of market growth is weak. The operation pattern of low-level repair and narrow range oscillation and uplift has been maintained throughout the month.
Market forecast: Based on comprehensive industry chain and business monitoring data, the overall expectation for the electrolytic manganese market in September is expected to fluctuate strongly and experience a slight recovery. Positive support comes from the arrival of the traditional peak season for stainless steel, the increased willingness of downstream terminals to stock up, and the expected improvement in purchasing demand from steel mills. Coupled with the continuation of supply side production control policies and overall low industry inventory, the rigid bottom of electricity and auxiliary material costs has limited risk of a significant decline in the market. On the negative side, the weakening of overseas forward manganese ore quotations will weaken raw material support, slow the recovery of terminal orders, or delay the release of peak season demand. If the market continues to improve and drives smelters to turn losses around, the resumption of idle production capacity in the early stage will suppress upward space. The core driving force of the future market trend will shift from cost support to peak season demand expectations, making it difficult to break out of a unilateral surge. The overall trend will maintain a gradual and moderate recovery, with a focus on tracking the pace of resumption of production in major production areas, monthly bidding by steel mills, changes in port manganese ore inventory, and actual overseas export transactions.
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