PA66 weakened again this week (July 1-7). On July 1st, the market reference price was 18366.67 yuan/ton. From July 1st to 6th, the price remained stable, and on July 7th, the market fell again to 18033.33 yuan/ton, with a cumulative weekly decline of 1.81%. Since the high point of 20766.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of June, the cumulative decline this year has exceeded 11.56%, showing a weak downward trend of “week beginning stalemate, weekend breaking and weakening”, and the price has once again broken through the stage low.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
influencing factors
Cost side: Upstream adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine continued to operate weakly this week, with no significant rebound momentum in raw materials. The comprehensive production cost of PA66 continued to decline, and the bottom support strength continued to weaken. International crude oil prices have fluctuated downward, with geopolitical premiums continuing to sell. OPEC+announced an increase in production in August, coupled with Saudi Arabia’s reduction in Asian crude oil prices. Long term weak energy expectations have suppressed upstream raw material prices such as pure benzene, and the cost side continues to form a negative drag. The current industry’s processing profits have turned from profits to losses, with some manufacturers slightly reducing their losses. However, the overall supply contraction is limited, and the cost side is only temporarily supported by a small bottom, which cannot reverse the downward trend.
Supply and demand side: The market maintains a pattern of loose supply and sustained low demand. The continuous release of new production capacity of hexamethylenediamine in the upstream of the supply side, the overall operation of aggregation enterprises remains at a moderate level, the inventory of factories and traders continues to accumulate, the pressure of shipment intensifies, and the phenomenon of cargo holders actively lowering quotations and giving discounts to promote orders increases. The traditional off-season of the demand side industry has not passed, and the recovery of downstream terminal orders for automotive parts and electronic appliances is not as expected. Downstream factories only maintain rigid small order replenishment, and the willingness to stock up in large quantities is low. Market trading is light, and it is difficult to drive price recovery through essential procurement.
Future forecast
The weak and volatile pattern of the PA66 market in the short term is difficult to change, and there is still room for a slight downward trend in prices, making it difficult to see a sustained rebound. The short-term price operating range refers to 17600-18600 yuan/ton, with a continuous low-level bottoming out. Market reversal requires waiting for clear positive signals such as a significant strengthening of crude oil, concentrated price increases of adipic acid/hexamethylenediamine, or concentrated replenishment of downstream terminals.
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