Copper prices fluctuated upward this week (May 18-22)

1、 Trend analysis

This week, copper prices fluctuated and rose. As of the 22nd, copper prices were reported at 104575 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 33.82%.
The weekly chart shows that in the past three months, copper prices have fallen 4 times and risen 8 times, with a slight increase this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 393100 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.076% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the minutes of the April FOMC meeting released on Wednesday were “hawkish”, with multiple officials calling for the removal of the phrase “loose leaning”. Some officials even believe that if inflation continues to exceed 2%, raising interest rates may become a suitable option. The market’s divergence on monetary policy has intensified, leading to an increase in US bond yields and overall suppression of commodity prices.
Supply side: Supply side support remains strong. The domestic copper concentrate spot processing fee (TC) has accelerated its decline and has fallen below -100 US dollars per dry ton, continuing the shortage situation at the mining end. According to customs data, the import volume of copper ore and concentrate in China decreased by 10.59% month on month in April, and the transportation volume of major producing countries such as Chile and Peru also fell.
On the demand side: WBMS data shows that there was a global surplus of 451400 tons of refined copper supply in the first quarter of this year, and the fear of high domestic downstream consumption spread. The widening price difference between Guangdong and Shanghai triggered arbitrage, and the spot price premium performance was weak. Although traditional cable and enameled wire orders have been slightly suppressed by high prices, the driving force of new energy and AI infrastructure cannot be underestimated. Recently, over 10 car companies have increased their prices due to rising raw material costs, indicating a shift towards value competition in the automotive market. The accelerated implementation of technologies such as 800V high-voltage platforms continues to solidify copper demand. At the same time, Zhongkuang Resources plans to raise 5.2 billion yuan for cross-border layout of copper mines in Zambia, which also confirms the high recognition of the long-term strategic value of “copper+lithium” by industrial capital.
In summary, copper prices are likely to remain high and fluctuate widely in the tug of war between macro headwinds and industrial reality. However, the contradiction of tight supply and demand in the global copper market due to prolonged cycles will still remain unresolved in 2026. With the decline in mining grade, scarcity of new projects, and reshaping of strategic metal properties, a central upward trend in copper prices is highly probable.