This week, copper prices fluctuated with a bias toward strength (7.6-7.10)

1、 Trend analysis
This week, copper prices first fell and then rose. As of July 10th, copper prices were reported at 104223.33 yuan/ton, up 0.86% from the beginning of the week and up 32.47% year-on-year.

LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 307750 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 2.29% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the overnight US dollar index fell slightly by 0.09%, closing at 100.904, providing price support for non-ferrous metals denominated in US dollars. The three major indexes of the US stock market all rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.27% to 52487.41, the S&P 500 rising 0.81% to 7543.64, and the Nasdaq rising 1.30% to 26206.89, indicating a rebound in market risk appetite. However, international oil prices have fallen, with WTI crude oil dropping $1.44 to $72.08 per barrel in August (a decrease of 1.96%), and Brent crude oil falling $1.72 to $76.30 per barrel in September (a decrease of 2.20%), exerting some pressure on commodity inflation expectations.
Supply side: The global shortage of copper concentrate is difficult to change, and the import spot TC has fallen to a historical freezing point of -128 US dollars/ton. Coupled with Kazakhstan’s suspension of sulfur exports, the profits of the smelting side have been compressed to the extreme.
On the demand side: July is the traditional off-season for consumption, and cable and air conditioning production has weakened compared to the previous month. Although the power grid and new energy orders provide bottom line support, copper consumption in the real estate chain is still at a low level. The main demand for spot purchases is due to insufficient willingness to chase after high prices, which restricts the upward potential of copper.
In summary, the fundamentals of copper varieties are relatively strong at present, such as the sustained low TC, continuous supply disruptions from the mining sector, favorable AI narratives on the demand side, and relatively stable output from the power grid. However, there is uncertainty in the macro aspect (such as the market’s rebound in expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike), which makes it impossible to form a unilateral strengthening market. It is expected that copper prices will show a fluctuating and strong pattern at present.