According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the overall price of polyester filament yarn has shown a downward trend this month. As we enter the end of the month, the rebound in international crude oil prices has strengthened the cost support for PTA. Coupled with the announcement of major factory equipment maintenance plans, the supply side is expected to tighten, and the discount has narrowed. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on April 30th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6300-6500 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 7500-8000 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 6500-6800 yuan/ton.
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Price trend: The price fell sharply in the first half of the year, and due to the “cliff like” drop in international crude oil prices, the cost side support for polyester filament collapsed. The price of POY 150D/48F fell from 6400-6700 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6300-6600 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1.6%. Mid month weakness continued, crude oil prices fluctuated and adjusted, PTA spot prices fell 12.04% compared to the beginning of the month, and the cost side remained bearish. The price of polyester filament continues to decline, with POY quotes dropping to 6300-6600 yuan/ton. The factory has a strong desire to reduce inventory, but the production and sales rate remains low. In the latter half of the year, the rebound in international crude oil prices led to an increase in PTA cost support, coupled with the release of mainstream factory equipment maintenance plans, and the expectation of tightening supply side is heating up. Starting from April 25th, POY prices rebounded first to 6350 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 0.70% in weekly average prices; FDY and DTY also saw a slight increase.
In terms of cost, fluctuations in crude oil prices directly affect the cost of upstream raw materials PTA and MEG for polyester filament. The sharp drop in crude oil prices in April resulted in PTA processing fees being compressed to 296 yuan/ton, MEG coal to gas losses expanding to 239 yuan/ton, and the collapse of cost support triggering a chain decline in polyester filament prices. After the stabilization and rebound of crude oil in the latter half of the year, the rebound of PTA prices provided short-term cost support for polyester filament, but in the long run, it is still suppressed by the expectation of global economic recession and the high interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve.
On the demand side, the downstream weaving industry’s operating rate continues to be sluggish (with a weaving machine operating rate of 68% -70% in Jiangsu and Zhejiang), and the inventory of raw fabrics has risen to 24.14 days, with enterprises only maintaining a procurement of 4610 for essential needs. The uncertainty of US tariff policies has led to orders shifting to Southeast Asia, resulting in a 5.2% year-on-year decline in textile exports in April, directly affecting demand for polyester filament.
Overall, in the short term, due to the fluctuating upward trend of international crude oil prices, the support for PTA raw material costs has been strengthened. Coupled with the announcement of maintenance plans for some mainstream factories, the supply side is expected to tighten. It is expected that the price of polyester filament will maintain a narrow range of fluctuations, or remain stable with a slightly strong trend.
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