January 5, the Shanghai municipal government announced that the Shanghai municipal government agreed to by the Xinhua Financial Investment Co., Ltd., in 10 oil and gas companies venture Shanghai trading center. Interview with reporters, many experts believe that the establishment of natural gas spot trading center is to promote the energy system of the revolution, an important step in advancing the market price of natural gas. The next level as the market continues to improve, the natural gas trade from long-term contracts may be short-term contracts to spot trading and even transformation, but will not be completely replaced.

Forced Asian Asian premium gas trade center construction

In recent years, with the rapid economic development in Asia, especially the growing demand for oil and natural gas demand for energy. Asia is becoming the world’s major oil and gas importer, foreign dependence continues to rise. But the area has not yet formed an influential oil and gas trading center, the lack of pricing right to speak.

2013, followed by the three Northeast Asian base price of natural gas trading system – the average CIF Japan LNG per million British thermal units $ 16.17, or about Germany, the UK gas import prices 1.5 times that of the United States Henry natural gas hub price 6 times.

One reason is that in the US, Europe, the Middle East and other oil and gas consumption and production countries and regions, both oil and natural gas futures, but also oil and gas spot market, improve the market structure, rich trading system for the oil and gas trade offers a variety of channels. But it lacks a sound trading pricing system in Asia.

With rising global oil and gas production, slowing demand growth, oil and gas flows and market structure is undergoing significant change, oil and gas prices have also been falling, the right to speak importer is improving, build oil and gas trading center in Asia has become consensus and inevitable.

China International Economic and Exchange Center Research Associate Chunmei King pointed out that in recent years, Japan, Korea, Singapore are actively seeking to establish natural gas trading center, and then fight for Asian gas pricing. Construction of the natural gas trading center for the reduction of import premium pricing power and access to natural gas has an important and positive role and significance, is conducive to China for the Asian natural gas pricing, the expansion of China in the international discourse gas sector.

Natural gas trading center established to promote domestic pricing mechanism will help to improve

Increasing expensive imported gas and the increasingly high cost of domestic natural gas development, Forced gas prices accelerate the pace of reform. Currently, different sources of natural gas pricing mechanism, the price difference is also large, leading to ease gas prices is difficult, hard to the rational allocation of resources. Conduction from the correct price signals, rational resource allocation point of view, the establishment of natural gas trading center, help nurture the natural gas price discovery center, cope with the impact of natural gas supply and demand in the international market and price volatility.

Natural gas market development experience from abroad, the European tradition linked pricing mechanism and crude oil prices, but with the European countries have set up natural gas trading center, natural gas users, dealers and importers find the spot gas price changes on supply and demand, “responsive” more accurately reflect the market value, but also more to promote win-win situation, culminating with the oil-linked pricing based, spot gas prices linked to mixed pricing supplement, the proportion of natural gas consumption and gas prices in recent years linked to from 16% to 47%. We can say that the establishment and development of natural gas trading center in Europe is a catalyst for reform of the pricing mechanism.

King noted Chunmei, building natural gas trading center, will help China to further promote the reform of natural gas pricing mechanism, establish natural gas prices from different sources are interrelated, effective linkage uniform pricing mechanism. In addition, the construction of natural gas trading center, helps to break the monopoly, to attract more gas distributors and end users, expand market reach, and promote positive interaction and development of China’s natural gas the whole industry chain. “(Trading center) for the natural gas industry chain system Forced to play a role in the pipe network is an independently operated Forced on the formation of an independent transmission and distribution of gas prices is a Forced.”

Establishment of natural gas trading center will play a decisive role in favor of market allocation of resources

China’s current natural gas market mature, natural gas supply contracts and gas trading conditions for the lack of flexibility, part of the price is also subject to control, difficult to adapt because of resources, market conditions and seasonal variations caused by changes in natural gas supply and demand situation. Construction of the natural gas trading center will help solve this problem. Chunmei King pointed out that in the natural gas trading center, buyers and sellers can talk face to face direct price, which is an important step in the reduction of energy product attributes, which directly reflects the actual price of natural gas supply and demand.

Establishment of natural gas trading center for natural gas producers, distributors and end users benefit. For manufacturers, the price of the trading center to form a direct reflection of the actual supply and demand, could then arrange the production, supply, while ensuring reasonable arrangements for production. Dealers and end users, you can use a lower purchase price, to get more revenue. At the same time, natural gas trading center affordability meet strong user demand for high value-added products, and promote optimal allocation of resources.

Moreover, the natural gas market in different seasons, will form different gas prices, market participants can take advantage of arbitrage spreads. For example, natural gas use in the off-season, companies can purchase low-cost natural gas during the winter heating period, sell high profit.

In addition, the construction of natural gas trading center also helps to promote the government, gas production and transportation companies, city gas companies and large industrial users and other market players involved in gas storage investments, peaking provide a flexible infrastructure protection. In the United States, whether it is gas injection gas storage or gas production is mainly determined by the market price of natural gas. When the low market price of natural gas, natural gas operators to purchase natural gas from the market and stored in gas storage. When the price is high, and then transported from the gas storage gas production to the user. Summer and winter gas prices is poor, peaking gas prices and gas peak bargaining is the main driving force to promote the development of the North American gas storage height.

Original Gas Energy Research Center analyst Liu Yang pointed out that China, China’s natural gas truly determined by the market price, but also the need to break the industry market-oriented reforms. This requires the establishment of a sound legal rules, diverse market players, improve infrastructure and an independent regulatory body. Establishment of natural gas trading center is an important step in the development of the market, is to promote market-oriented reform of the industry cite the essay, the natural gas market will lay the foundation for the healthy development of China.(http://www.lubonchem.com)

With international oil prices continued to decline in 2015, natural gas prices are also under tremendous pressure. This would be positive for the restructuring of China Energy.

This should be a winter peak demand of natural gas prices should rise, but according to statistics data, in November 2014 China liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports an average price of $ 604 / ton, compared with $ 641.07 in October 2014 in / ton chain fell 5.77 percent, while the average price of pipeline gas imports in November 2014 compared with October also fell 11.34% MoM.

Chairman of the king Policy Institute at King’s College London, Nick Butler noted that the current natural gas prices have started to decline, the US natural gas prices during December for the first time fell below $ 3 / million British thermal units since 2012, and this is just the beginning.

Why is there such a gas price trends? Qie Jing gas analyst attributed first international crude oil prices continue to fall. She told the “China Sankei Shimbun,” told reporters that the continued decline in international crude oil prices led some countries to re-use turbine oil, reduce the demand for LNG spot, continued weak demand led to the Asian LNG spot prices fell below $ 10 / one hundred Wan Btu, the highest in nearly three years to a new low.

It is predicted that in 2015 the price of crude oil is likely to remain at low levels. Qie Jing think this will further affect spot LNG demand, resulting in LNG spot prices continue to decline.

Ampang consulting a research report points out another reason gas prices are expected to fall: There are indications that Japan is ready to accept the gradual recovery to enable nuclear power plant, the initial pace will be relatively small, but even this step is enough to weaken the natural gas prices in Asia, Prior to the Japanese were forced to import natural gas to replace nuclear power, resulting in several Asian gas prices approaching $ 20 / million British thermal units, each nuclear power plant operators have a recovery will reduce demand for natural gas; as prices soar in 2011, as now they will fall back.

Due to lower natural gas import costs, the state can enhance gas imports, now is a good time to encourage large-scale imports, cleft Jing stressed that “a good time to import natural gas is equivalent to a good time to China’s energy structure adjustment.”

Ampang Consulting also believes that China should be timely to increase gas imports to replace fossil fuels.

In the “Action Plan for Energy Development Strategy (2014-2020 years),” June 7, 2014 the State Council issued a clear will “optimize the energy structure” as a strategic task of China’s energy development, namely, “to reduce the proportion of coal consumption, increase natural gas the proportion of consumption, the safe development of nuclear power, and vigorously develop renewable energy. ”

The document also proposed that by 2020, total primary energy consumption control in about 4.8 billion tons of standard coal, coal consumption control in about 4.2 billion tons. By 2020, non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to 15% the proportion of natural gas share of more than 10%, the proportion of coal consumption control in less than 62%.

It seems that the international price of natural gas is expected to decline in silence seems to fulfill the realization of China’s energy development strategy plan. Decline in natural gas prices, the first impact is that the coal industry.

In cleft Jing view, if the future of natural gas prices, downstream users will certainly choose natural gas as a fuel, it will reduce the demand for coal, coal prices further suppress, but did not cause a severe shock to the price of coal, natural gas and coal because of the relationship between the only alternative, there is no comparability between the two economies, not because of price changes either directly affect the price of the other, there is a certain level of economic performance between the two.(http://www.lubonchem.com)

Coastal bulk shipping market under the influence of many negative factors, the demand downturn trend continues, pressure drop tariffs. January 9, Shanghai Shipping Exchange, China coastal (bulk) freight index closed at 892.58 points, compared with December 31 fell 0.9 percent. Including coal, grain, metal ore freight rates were lower, crude oil, refined oil freight rates remained stable.

With continued cooling in some areas, a slight improvement compared to the previous demand for electricity, the six coastal Japanese consumption and stable operation of the power plant to the level of about 700,000 tons. But the overall downturn in the industrial economy, coal consumption is still below the level of previous years, and coal storage rate of decline is relatively narrow, unable to effectively stimulate plant replenishment will. On the other hand, continued to increase after experiencing four months ago, in the face of relatively high coal prices and sluggish demand, the market price of coal to get down again increased concerns. Bohai thermal coal prices fall release, part of the contract agreement is not a long amount of coal pricing situation has further confirmed the significant features of the current buyer’s market. Coastal coal transportation market fundamentals to plan coal-based, market supply scarce. Ship Harbor mooring space phenomenon continues, freight continuous bottom, shipping companies operating difficulties, stopping the phenomenon further increase flight envelope.

January 9, cargo types coal freight index of Shanghai Shipping Exchange closed at 918.44 points, compared with December 31 (below) fell by 1.0%. Shanghai Shipping Exchange, China’s coastal coal freight index, the number of freight routes reaching the lowest price since the release, which, Qinhuangdao – Shanghai (40,000-50,000 dwt) route tariffs for 20.4 yuan / ton, down 0.7 yuan / ton; Qinhuangdao – Nanjing (30,000-40,000 dwt) route tariffs for 28.1 yuan / ton, down 0.3 yuan / ton; Huanghua – Shanghai (30,000-40,000 dwt) route tariffs for 22.7 yuan / ton, down 0.5 yuan / ton. Southern route: the Qinhuangdao – Guangzhou (50,000-60,000 dwt) route tariffs for 28.9 yuan / ton, down 0.8 yuan / ton.

Currently, the contradiction between supply and demand of steel is still relatively “sharp” the face of approaching Spring Festival holiday, the downstream infrastructure projects, production enterprises will gradually leave, steel traders bearish mentality obviously, procurement will be reduced. Steel is still insufficient power increase, significantly boosted demand for iron ore difficult, tariffs pressure drop. January 9, metal ore cargo types coastal freight index closed at 760.29 points, compared with December 31 fell 1.4%.

Opened in 2015, is still a continuation of the decline in international oil prices, WTI has fallen below 50 yuan / barrel, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices will usher in a January 12 2015, the first fall. Given weak oil prices will continue to run in the short term, the domestic refined oil wholesale market once again into a strong bearish atmosphere, the lack of positive factors to boost demand for transport, tariffs low levels. January 9, crude oil cargo types freight index of Shanghai Shipping Exchange was 1597.14 points, refined oil cargo freight index was 1215.40 points species, were flat with the previous year.(http://www.lubonchem.com)

January 12 Inner Mongolia trichlorethylene market consolidation, bottled mainstream market around 4900-5000 yuan / ton, the market supply is stable, can still take the goods.(http://www.lubonchem.com)

Last week, the domestic market trading atmosphere butyl acrylate gradually rise, prices rose steadily. Butyl acrylate raw material prices partially stabilized market sentiment stabilized, with the current factory operating rate is low, the market supply pressure to reduce conducive to the stable operation of the short-term market butyl acrylate.

East market trading intent smooth, spot stocks in general, downstream buyers demand pick-up, dealers normal shipping, offer a steady increase, the primary market price in 7600 ~ 7800 yuan.

South China market has some initiative to discuss, moderate turnover of the atmosphere, the dealer attitude to good, prices were slightly elevated level of market prices in 7600 ~ 7800 yuan.

North China market trading atmosphere is better, more active exercise goods buyers, dealers and smooth, prices rose significantly, the primary market price in 7600 ~ 7800 yuan.(http://www.lubonchem.com)

Crude News: Goldman Sachs lowered oil price forecast, four major US refinery outages, international oil prices plunged 5 percent. At the close, the New York Mercantile Exchange, February futures WTI15 $ 46.07 a barrel on Monday (January 12), down $ 2.29. London Brent futures on February 15 $ 47.43 a barrel, down $ 2.68.

PP tablets: 12 100-200 yuan market fell again, poor performance venue. With the price of oil again Zoudie and bearish impact on the petrochemical policy is expected, the market is expected to be maintained throughout the 13th Zoudie situation, to talk about the phenomenon maintained. In addition, rumors Sinopec North China price instability, does not rule out the possibility of a downward, this message has not been confirmed for reference only.

Petrochemical sales: sales of petrochemical companies and all sales regions shipping in general, inventory is on the middle level, poor sales. With the impact of the market decline, the price does not rule out continuing sporadic phenomenon.

Outlook forecast: Overnight prices Yindie worsening atmosphere inside. 12th Sinopec offer becoming soft in some areas, the venue enriched bearish sentiment. Market turnover fell into the woods on the 12th, rumors petrochemical prices are still intent. Multiple effects, film factory Yindie offer a few hundred dollars, all regions of the retail market increasingly soft shock, the recent lack of positive market guidelines, according to the business community is expected to price the 13th film or continue Budie.(Related: http://www.lubonchem.com)

At 0:00 on the 30th, went to the oil price adjustment window, a further drop in oil prices, gasoline 92 will be lowered 0.08 yuan / liter. This is the ninth year of refined oil prices, domestic oil prices over the past decade the first five-day losing streak.

National Development and Reform Commission announced a reduction in the retail price of refined oil products, ranging from gasoline 100 yuan / ton, diesel 95 yuan / ton, equivalent to No. 0 diesel 0.08 yuan / liter. Beijing Youth Daily reporter learned from Sinopec Beijing Branch, Beijing No. 92 gasoline retail price 7.36 yuan / liter, decrease 0.08 yuan / liter; No. 95 gasoline retail price of 7.83 yuan / liter, decrease 0.09 yuan / liter. Beijing marked No. 0 diesel 7.29 yuan / liter, price 0.08 yuan / liter.

Since July 21 price cut, the domestic refined oil prices hit five-day losing streak, after the price adjustment, an ordinary private car traveling an average of 1,000 km per cost savings of about 50-60 yuan from the previous month. Large transport vehicles traveling 10,000 kilometers per cost reduction of about 2,000 yuan.

Weak global economic performance, adequate supply of petroleum resources, since August, the international oil prices continue to fall, the data show that as of September 26, September WTI average price of 93.06 U.S. dollars / barrel, down 12.6 percent from a year earlier. Under the shadow of the international oil price downturn situation, the domestic refined oil prices falling.

The industry believes that the current round of oil price down cash for domestic transport and aviation logistics industry, is a big plus. Golden Week free high-speed access, the price of oil down to private owners National Day travel is undoubtedly a major positive. In addition, the domestic refining industry, will be in the petroleum, petrochemical performance impact.

So far, 12 times during the year 2014 the cumulative price adjustment gasoline rose 595 yuan / ton, diesel rose 575 yuan / ton; cumulative decline in gasoline 1220 yuan / ton, diesel decline in 1175 yuan / ton. Overall, gasoline overall fell 625 yuan / ton, diesel overall fell 600 yuan / ton. The price of oil down to cash, the overall rate of decline is further widening.

Oil analyst Pan Haiping business community believes that the beginning of the fourth quarter, international crude oil prices remain low, hard to find positive factors, mainly crude oil weak consolidation. But the already low prices, without significant negative event occurs, continue down the space or more limited. With the advent of winter peak oil, early November or inflection point, so the October 20 price adjustment “six-day losing streak,” or aground.(related: organic chemicals)

Due to rising raw material prices, production quotas tightening and other factors, the recent R22 refrigerant prices rose

slightly, the manufacturer gave traders also fewer concessions, analysts agree that the second half of R22 to maintain the current

13,700 yuan / ton price level is no problem, as the shut down of production capacity next year, the market supply is reduced, R22

prices will continue upward.

According to the business community branch refrigerant chemical analyst Gao Zhai said that the current R22 manufacturers offer at

14,000 yuan / ton, the actual transaction price 13,700 yuan / ton, compared with prices in late August, up about 3%. He said the

reason is that the rise in prices of raw materials prices and chloroform tense due to quota factory operating rate fell, “like

Dongyue Group’s current operating rate is only about 50%.”

“The second half, it is estimated that the price is now, because the downstream demand is not good, the possibility of R22

continue to rise sharply, to officially begin production next year out, the price will continue to rise.” Gao Zhai said.

Zhuo record information refrigerant analyst Xu Yanbin said, from the current situation, the production quota to November will be

very tight, to December could basically run out of words. But because the current R22 at high prices, so the market is mainly

dependent on the second half of October after the downstream market, if the downstream demand is good, then the price or may also

rise. In addition, he is more optimistic about the same price next year’s R22.

On the 16th, the ministry held in Beijing in 2014 the International Ozone Layer Protection Day celebrations, and published the

first batch of Chinese HCFCs (HCFCs) production line shut down enterprises list items. The first batch of a total of five

companies closed five HCFCs production line, out of HCFCs production quotas totaling 58,864 tons, corresponding HCFCs production

capacity of 88,000 tons / year. Five companies, Jiangsu Blue Planet Environmental Science and Technology Co., Ltd., Hangzhou FTSE

Chemical Co., Ltd., Yantai Swiss Chemical Co. all off HCFC-141b production line, a total amount of 25,627 tons out of production

quotas; Ying Peng Chemical Co., Ltd. and Zhejiang Dongyang Chemical Co., Ltd. were off an HCFC-22 (R22) production line, the

amount of 33,237 tons out of production quotas.

According to the requirements of Article 19 Conference of the Parties “Montreal Protocol” No. 6 of the resolution, China needs in

2013 will HCFC production and consumption freeze in 2009-2010 the average level of 2015 level of 10 freeze-out %, in 2020

eliminated 35 percent, eliminated 67.5% in 2025, to 2030 HCFC phase-out of all manufacturing production and consumption. HCFC

phase out mainly around R22, R141b and R142b launched three products.(Related: chemicals)

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