The continuous mutual attack between the United States and Iran has pushed up the dual risks of global energy channels, and international crude oil has once again risen. As of July 20th, the settlement price of the September WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $82.48 per barrel, and the settlement price of the September Brent crude oil futures contract was $89.22 per barrel, setting a new high since mid June. Moreover, with the concentrated annual maintenance of PX facilities, the Asian PX production has dropped to a low level within the year, thus providing strong cost support. In addition, the maintenance of multiple main PTA facilities has caused the industry’s lowest operating rate to drop to 57%, resulting in tight supply and continuous inventory depletion, which has driven prices up all the way.
| Gamma-PGA (gamma polyglutamic acid) |
On the demand side, boosted by the rise in oil prices, the production and sales of polyester filament have increased in stages, and the terminal stocking volume has increased month on month. Downstream polyester product inventory has been reduced, which maintains the demand for PTA procurement. Currently, July is in the traditional off-season for textiles, with frequent high temperatures and extreme weather in summer leading to low operating rates for textile enterprises. However, the peak season orders for “golden September and silver October” usually begin to be concentrated from mid August, and there is no urgent need to replenish inventory in July. Terminal orders are differentiated, and knitting orders have slightly increased, while weaving orders remain quiet.
In the future, it is necessary to observe the further evolution of the US Iran conflict, slow completion of PX maintenance, and tight PX supply, so there is still support on the cost side. The textile market will gradually enter the autumn and winter order stocking window period. It is expected that downstream polyester production will slightly increase, and the demand for replenishment will increase, which will have a positive effect on prices in the current stage. But in August, PTA plants will restart one after another, with loose supply margins and concentrated release of supply increments, which may put pressure on prices. In the short term, the PTA market is still dominated by fluctuations. Since July, the domestic PTA market has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with an average spot market price of 6036 yuan/ton in East China, up 6.15% from July 2nd.
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