According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fell today (November 3). The average price in the spot market was 5057 yuan / ton, down 2.09% from the previous day and up 55.49% year-on-year. The main force of PTA futures 2201 closed at 5088 and settled at 5152, down 134, or 2.57%.

In terms of supply and demand, Sichuan energy investment 1 million tons and Hengli Petrochemical 2.2 million tons of units have been overhauled successively, and the industrial starting load is around 82. However, at present, PTA stock is sufficient, and there is not much device maintenance before the end of the year.

On November 2, the international oil price closed slightly lower. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $83.91/barrel, down US $0.14, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $84.72/barrel, up US $0.01. The market is waiting for the outcome of the meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies on Thursday. In addition, the rise of US commercial crude oil inventories is expected to heat up and curb the upward pace of oil prices.

At present, the power restriction of the industrial chain is relaxed, and the operating rate of the downstream polyester plant has slightly rebounded to more than 80%. However, due to the impact of terminal demand, it is still difficult for the operating rate to return to the previous high.

Business analysts believe that the current pattern of crude oil supply and demand is good, and the cost side still has good support. However, the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream factories is aggravated, and the purchase enthusiasm is not high, which aggravates the speed of PTA inventory accumulation. Therefore, in the short term, PTA price shock is likely to weaken slightly.

The latest p value price of ethylene glycol on November 2 was 5900 yuan / ton.

In terms of units, the 400000 T / a ethylene glycol unit of Fulian refinery is planned to be shut down for maintenance in November 6, and it is expected to be shut down for 30-35 days; The 500000 T / a ethylene glycol unit of Fude energy was originally planned to be shut down for maintenance in early November. At present, the planned shutdown time has been delayed; A 300000 t / a syngas to ethylene glycol unit in Anhui was originally planned to start in October. Considering the benefit factors, its start-up plan is further postponed, and the specific time is to be determined.

In the afternoon, MEG was dominated by external consolidation, the downward trend of coal price at the cost side continued, the commencement of ethylene glycol fell slightly, the commencement of polyester and loom at the downstream increased, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the port accumulated for two consecutive weeks, there was no significant fluctuation in arrival expectation, and the import increment was slow.

Forecast: maintain a wide range of shocks.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (November 1): 2792.00 yuan / ton

On November 1, the domestic urea market price fell, down 258 yuan / ton compared with October 29, down 8.46%, and up 57.15% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Upstream coal prices have fallen sharply recently and cost support has weakened. From the perspective of demand: the peak of agricultural demand has passed, sporadic fertilizer supplement in some areas, industrial demand is just the main demand, the demand for urea in downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is general, the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains at a high level, and most of them follow up with the appropriate amount. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, and the supply decreases. On the whole, the urea cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is insufficient.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price may decline slightly: the average price quoted by the manufacturer is about 2700 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 16050 yuan / ton on October 1 and 16175 yuan / ton on October 31. The price of caprolactam rose by 0.78% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The price of caprolactam rose first and then fell this month. In the first half of October, the price of raw materials rose after the national day, with strong cost support. Some enterprises have not resumed supply due to the impact of dual control, and the supply of goods is relatively tight. Some caprolactam plants were shut down. In the second half of October, the price of raw materials began to fall, and the caprolactam market tended to be stable and then operated downward. As of October 31, Sinopec’s quotation for liquid caprolactam was 16450 yuan / ton. Fujian Tianchen has a production capacity of 350000 tons and a load of about 90%. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 16450 yuan / ton, which will be accepted and withdrawn within six months. Baling Petrochemical’s caprolactam liquid price is 16450 yuan / ton, and the production capacity is 300000 tons. It will be accepted and withdrawn within six months. Shandong Luxi Chemical has no quotation for caprolactam, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. Shandong Haili plant is in shutdown and will not be restarted temporarily.

The price of raw material pure benzene rose first and then fell this month. In the first half of October, pure benzene rose continuously and the price rose broadly. In the second half of the month, prices began to fluctuate downward and fell deeply at the end of the month. The average price was 7880 yuan / ton on October 1 and 7600 yuan / ton on October 31. This month’s decline was 3.55%, an increase of 111.11% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest prices in the month was 980 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that the current cost market is weak, the prices of coal and pure benzene fall, and the trend is weak in the short term. Some caprolactam plants are planned to restart, and the supply will increase next month. The downstream construction started at a low level, the price fell, and the confidence in the field was insufficient. It is expected that the caprolactam market price will run steadily and downward in the short term.

According to the data of business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market fluctuated at a high level on October 28. As of October 28, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 16666.67 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with October 27 and increased by 23.46% compared with the same period last month.

The downstream unsaturated resin market is operating at a high level and mainly needs to be purchased. Upstream, pure benzene negotiation weakened and the market was bearish. On the 28th, the price of pure benzene was 7500-7850 yuan / ton. On October 28, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong fell, and the price was about 8120 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane remained stable, with 6380 yuan / ton in Shandong. At present, the supply of maleic anhydride in the domestic market is limited. Some factories execute early orders. The factories have no inventory pressure. The price is high. The crude oil falls and the high level of hydrogenated benzene falls. The market operation is cautious and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may have a downward trend in the near future.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (October 27): 15500.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the domestic TDI market trend is strong, the spot on the site is tight, the offer of the cargo holder is increased, and the market price rises. The quotation of TDI domestic goods in the distribution market is about 15000-15500 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods is about 15500-16000 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The guidance prices of many factories have been raised, and the attitude of cargo holders is obvious. However, in the downstream, the acceptance of terminal products to high prices is not high, the overall just need procurement is the main, and the market transaction is general.

Future forecast: from the perspective of supply and demand performance, the future TDI market is dominated by stalemate, consolidation and operation, and the short-term market or upward operation trend, with specific attention to market supply and downstream follow-up.

Trade name: sulfur

Latest price (October 26): 2123.33 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the price monitoring of business society, the price of sulfur in East China rose on the 26th, up 1.92% from yesterday. The domestic sulfur market is stable and small. Refineries in various regions offer stable or increased prices according to their own shipments. Except for individual enterprises, the prices of manufacturers in other regions remain unchanged, and the price of sulfur fixation increases slightly, with an increase of 20-50 yuan / ton. The sulfur market continues to operate strongly, the refinery inventory in China remains low, the manufacturer’s quotation is high, the downstream traders purchase on demand, the enterprise shipment is stable, and the market is high and strong.

Future forecast: at present, the domestic sulfur market is at a high level, and the refinery has a smooth shipment. In addition, it is difficult to find low prices in the port and the yard to provide market support. It is expected that the future sulfur market will be at a high level and wait-and-see, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (October 25): 7000.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the acetic acid market continued to decline on the 25th. The average price of acetic acid in East China decreased by 240 yuan / ton compared with the previous working day, down 3.31%. The downstream demand is general, the market purchase is light, the downstream purchase is rational, the transaction of new orders in the market is not smooth, and the inventory of acetic acid manufacturers is accumulated. In order to maintain the shipment, the enterprise quotation continues to be reduced, and the market mentality of the field operators is weak.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream demand continues to be weak, the inventory in the domestic acetic acid market continues to accumulate, and the oversupply situation cannot be improved for the time being. It is expected that the future acetic acid market will continue to be weak, and the specific attention will be paid to the downstream transaction.

According to the data of business agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market fluctuated at a high level on October 22. As of October 22, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 16166.67 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with October 21 and increased by 21.28% compared with the same period last month.

The downstream unsaturated resin market is operating at a high level and mainly needs to be purchased. Upstream, the pure benzene market negotiation is weak, and the price range in Shandong province fluctuates in a narrow range. On the 22nd, the price of pure benzene was 8200-8550 yuan / ton. On October 22, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong was temporarily stable, and the quotation range was 8000 ~ 8100 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane remained stable, with 6360 yuan / ton in Shandong. At present, the supply of maleic anhydride in the domestic market is limited, and some factories execute early orders. The factories have no inventory pressure, the price is high, and the market is mostly on the sidelines. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price October 21: 46666.67 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on October 21, the price focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market was upward. Affected by power rationing in Guizhou, the market price of yellow phosphorus stopped falling and rebounded. At present, most manufacturers do not offer foreign prices, and traders wait and see. As most downstream enterprises are also affected by power restriction, the demand for yellow phosphorus is relatively limited. The price of yellow phosphorus is expected to be upward in the short term, but the range is limited.