1、 Market price overview:
As of June 3rd, data shows that the benchmark price of propylene is 9004.33 yuan/ton. Looking back at this week’s trend, propylene prices have shown a fluctuating downward trend, with a decrease of about 1.42% compared to the beginning of the month (9134.33 yuan/ton). Based on recent data, the price has been fluctuating within the range of 9000-9150 yuan/ton, with the center of gravity slowly shifting downwards.
Fundamentals and Macro Environment:
Despite the weak performance of spot prices, this may indicate that national level economic stimulus policies or industry expectations are brewing, providing some bottom support for the commodity market and limiting the potential for deep price declines.
The repeated fluctuations of prices around the 9000 yuan mark reflect the game between upstream and downstream. On the one hand, insufficient follow-up of downstream demand may lead to price pressure; On the other hand, cost support or macro expectations make holders unwilling to ship at low prices, leading to a stalemate in the market.
Future outlook:
Overall, the propylene market has shown a “macro bottoming out and weak technical performance” this week.
Short term trend: It is expected that propylene prices will continue to maintain a consolidation pattern. Due to the still negative and low average deviation index, the market lacks significant upward momentum and is likely to seek support around 9000 yuan/ton.
Summary: The propylene market is currently in the bottom grinding stage, and technical indicators show that the adjustment has not yet ended. However, strong macro guidance provides a safety cushion for the market. Next week, we need to focus on whether the 10 day moving average can turn upwards as an observation window for the market to warm up.
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