1、 Price trend this month (May 2026)
Futures (Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange’s main bottle tablet PRZL2)
At the beginning of the month (5.6), the price was about 8892 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, it fluctuated at a high level and dropped sharply to 7906 yuan/ton on 5.22. At the end of the month (5.27), it slightly rebounded to 7790 yuan/ton; The overall high-level decline and wide range oscillation throughout the month, with an amplitude of about 12%.
• In stock (East China water bottle grade including tax factory)
At the beginning of the month, the price ranged from 8500 to 8700 yuan/ton. In the middle of the month, it surged to 8900 yuan/ton, and then fell back to 8150-8400 yuan/ton in the second half of the month. At the end of the month, the price was partially 8000-8300 yuan/ton, with weak trading volume.
2、 Core driving factors
1. Cost side: Crude oil and PX/PTA fluctuations dominate
The geopolitical stalemate in the Middle East, restricted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, strong crude oil prices, firm PTA processing fees, and strong bottom support for bottle chip costs.
In mid to late May, crude oil experienced a pullback and PTA weakened, leading to a drop in bottle chip prices.
2. Supply and demand side: peak season demand+export support, supply slightly rebounds
• Demand: During the peak season of beverage consumption in May, the production of soft drinks increased by 3.7% year-on-year, and the consumption of bottle slices increased by 17.6% year-on-year; Strong exports (with a year-on-year increase of 1.7% from January to March), high price differences between domestic and foreign markets, FOB exceeding $1500/ton, and obvious spot support.
Supply: The operating rate is 72.8% (month on month+0.6%), with the restart of the 120000 ton plant at Yipu and the commissioning of the 200000 ton new plant at Shaoxing Tiansheng, leading to a marginal easing of tight expectations; The inventory in the factory has been 8.86 days and is still at a low level.
3. Processing fees and basis differences
The spot processing fee is about 1600 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee is 1000-1100 yuan/ton, which is strong in the short term but under pressure at a high level.
High basis (+500 yuan/ton or more), with spot prices stronger than futures, supporting prices in recent months.
3、 Technical analysis
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, when the 10 day moving average is above the 20 day moving average, the probability of an increase is relatively high. On the contrary, the probability is smaller. Starting from May 7th, the 10 day moving average turned downwards and approached the 20 day moving average. On May 14th, it crossed the 20 day moving average and the probability of further decline continued to increase.
This week’s decline also confirms the accuracy of the core principles of Business Society’s spot market analysis method.
4、 Market Summary and Outlook
Summary of this month: Driven by cost, high demand during peak season, and supported by exports, the stock surged at the beginning of the month, fluctuated in the middle of the month, and fell back with the pullback of crude oil in the middle and late of the month. Overall, it fluctuated widely at a high level, and the resilience of spot stocks was stronger than that of futures.
Short term (June) outlook:
Range: Futures at 7500-8500 yuan/ton, spot at 8000-8500 yuan/ton.
Logic: There is still support on the cost side, the peak season demand continues, and exports remain stable; New production capacity released, high prices suppressed procurement, high volatility, and a slight shift in focus.
Key focus:
The situation in the Middle East and fluctuations in crude oil prices.
The pace of domestic beverage factories’ urgent replenishment needs.
• Changes in bottle export orders and price differentials.
Progress of new production capacity being put into operation.
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