1、 Price trend

According to the data of Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average market price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 8383 yuan/ton, down 4.10% from the average price of 8741 yuan/ton on February 13.

According to the data of the Business News Agency, as of February 17, the average market price of 85-content wet-process phosphoric acid in China was 8250 yuan/ton, down 6.25% from the average price of 8800 yuan/ton on February 13.

2、 Market analysis

Mainstream market:

As of February 17, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan is about 8200-8600 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan is about 8500 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei is about 8000-8600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 85% wet-process phosphoric acid is about 7550-9200 yuan/ton.

Cost side:

In terms of raw yellow phosphorus, the market price of Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus was lowered this week. The manufacturer has issued many preliminary orders. At present, the devices of many enterprises are in maintenance status, and the quotation is not available for the time being. The overall market trading situation is light. Under the bearish mood of the downstream, the buying enthusiasm is not high, the high-end price is difficult to deal, the operation is cautious, and the low market price frequently depresses the market confidence. Up to now, the mainstream quotation is about 31000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is a single negotiation.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall high level of the phosphorus ore market this week was relatively strong. As of February 17, 2023, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 1050-1100 yuan/ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 950-980 yuan/ton. The reference price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1180-1250 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand side:

This week, the supply of phosphoric acid market was stable, the downstream demand was low, and there were few transactions on the market. The release of terminal demand is slow, and now it is mainly wait-and-see.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the trend of the phosphoric acid market has continued to decline recently. The price of raw yellow phosphorus fell, and the cost support weakened. Downstream demand is weak and market trading is weak. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will be weak in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average ex-factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1230 yuan/ton on February 10 and 1186 yuan/ton on February 16. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 3.52% this week.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market of ammonium sulfate was weak and the trend was mainly downward. Due to the weakening of downstream demand, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate was significantly reduced this week. The start-up load of domestic units was increased, and domestic ammonium sulfate continued to be in a weak market. This week, the export demand of ammonium sulfate was still weak, and the international market performance was poor. As of February 16, the mainstream ex-factory price of coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1100 yuan/ton, and the mainstream ex-factory price of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1150 yuan/ton. Domestic ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex-factory price in Shandong Province is 1110-1200 yuan/ton.

The market of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises was stable this week. The price of raw material urea fell and cost support weakened. At present, compound fertilizer mainly sends orders from old customers. At present, the transaction on the market is weak, and dealers are mainly cautious and wait-and-see.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Analysts of ammonium sulfate from the Business Society believe that the market price of ammonium sulfate has continued to be weak in recent days. The domestic and foreign market demand is weak, the downstream purchase is small, and the atmosphere of transaction on the market is not good. It is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will move downward in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, since February, the demand of terminal paper printing and other industries has recovered, and the market of hydrogen peroxide has risen. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 750 yuan/ton. On February 14, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 766 yuan/ton, up 2.22%.

Since February, the manufacturers of terminal paper printing and other industries have resumed work, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide has increased. In addition, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers still shut down for maintenance, and the market supply is tight. The hydrogen peroxide market was supported by a lot of profits. The mainstream quotation in Shandong was 670 yuan/ton, and the price rose by 40 yuan/ton.

According to the hydrogen peroxide analyst of the Business Agency, the positive factors have been realized in succession, and the hydrogen peroxide market in the future will gradually fall.

The market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber weakened slightly this week (2.6-2.13). According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 13, the domestic price of cis-1,40 yuan/ton was down 1.03% from 11660 yuan/ton on Monday. The raw material butadiene price is high and firm, and the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber supplier will basically stabilize the factory price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in the week. Buying sentiment weakened after the market price rose, and the offer of merchants fell slightly. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, as of February 13, the ex-factory price of butadiene rubber of Sinopec North China Sales Company was reported at 11400 yuan/ton. As of the 13th, the mainstream market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in Qilu, Yanshan, Yangzi, Dushanzi and Sichuan reported 11450-11750 yuan/ton, while the mainstream market of private cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber reported 11200-11300 yuan/ton.

The price of raw material butadiene rose slightly this week (2.6-2.13), and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber continued to be supported. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of butadiene was 9518 yuan/ton as of February 13, up 0.91% from 9432 yuan/ton on February 6.

The natural rubber market fell slightly this week (2.6-2.13), which was negative for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, the price of natural rubber was 11980 yuan/ton as of February 13, down 1.02% from 12104 yuan/ton last Monday.

After the Lantern Festival, the construction of downstream tire enterprises increased significantly. Because the tire factory had sufficient stock before the festival, the purchase of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is still small, and the negotiation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is mainly small.

Aftermarket forecast: analysts from the Business Agency believe that the price of natural rubber will fall in the short term, and the impact on polybutadiene rubber will be short; The supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is stable, and the inventory of downstream raw materials is gradually consumed. The demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will increase in the later stage. It is expected that the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will rise again in the later stage.

The aluminum price fluctuated widely

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on February 10, 2023 was 18583.33 yuan/ton, down 2.09% from the aluminum price of 18980 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (February 1). After the aluminum price recovered in January, it was basically in a long and short position in February, with a wide range of sideways shocks.

In the long term, the current price has retreated significantly, with an increase of 6.49% compared with the average market price of aluminum ingot of 17450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the recent recovery (July 14, 2022). The recent high price of aluminum appeared on December 5, and the average market price of aluminum ingots was 19536.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.88%.

The aluminum price fluctuated widely in February, and the main factors for the decline on the 10th were:

1. Expected strengthening of supply increase

The supply increase is expected to strengthen, and the production resumption plan of Guizhou Province to reduce production capacity has been put on the agenda. The time for enterprises to resume production varies from late February to early April. The electrolytic aluminum production in Sichuan Province has resumed to nearly 70%, and Linfeng Aluminum Power has also resumed production; The news of production reduction in the early stage has not come to the ground yet, and the previously rumored power shortage in Yunnan will drive the electrolytic aluminum enterprises to increase the scale of production reduction by 60-8 million tons has not been fulfilled in time.

2. Weak cost support

The cost support is weakened, the price of alumina is basically stable, the price of anode in February is reduced by 660 yuan/ton month on month, and the price of steam coal is down.

3. There are many factories and warehouses

The accumulated inventory before and after the Spring Festival is in line with market expectations, but there are many factories and warehouses; As of February 9, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 173000 tons to 1188000 tons from the end of January, which is in the normal accumulation range; However, compared with the end of January, the factory warehouse increased by 35000 tons to 233000 tons, higher than the previous year’s level. Delivery pressure is concentrated on the manufacturer.

4. Downstream consumption is less than expected

After the Lantern Festival, the consumption was less than expected, the terminal construction was average, and the relevant new orders were average.

Aftermarket forecast

After the wide fluctuation of aluminum prices, there is a trend of jumping out of the operating range. It is expected that there will be little room to continue to decline in the short term. In the evening trading today, affected by the factors of the reduction of Russian crude oil production, we will wait and see whether the exploration of crude oil prices can drive the enthusiasm of futures speculation.

The domestic cobalt price fell slightly on February 9

According to the data monitoring of the Business Agency, as of February 9, the domestic cobalt price was 290000 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from 290700 yuan/ton on February 8 of the previous trading day. The domestic cobalt price fell slightly on February 9.

Analysis points

The cobalt price in LME market is weak and stable, the decline of MB cobalt price slows down, and the decline of international cobalt price slows down; The recovery of domestic economy is slow, the production and sales of new energy vehicles are higher than expected but lower than reality, the sales of mobile phones are low, and the recovery of cobalt market demand is less than expected. The import of cobalt raw materials has increased greatly, and the supply of cobalt is sufficient.

Aftermarket expectation

The decline of the international cobalt price slowed down, the demand recovery was less than expected, and the supply of cobalt market was sufficient. It is expected that the cobalt price will fall slightly in the future.

Analysis: On February 8, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose slightly. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the daily increase in Shandong, the main production area, was 1.65%. Due to the increase of downstream orders and the decrease of enterprise inventory, large factories generally raised the ex-factory price by around 100 yuan/ton. The downstream urea operates at a high level, the agricultural demand increases, the industrial end just needs support, and the ammonia market rebounds at a low level. At present, the mainstream quotation is 4000-4200 yuan/ton.

Forecast: the downstream urea market is improving, the conversion of enterprise units to urea is gradually increasing, the later liquid ammonia production is limited, and the superimposed demand is moderately rising. It is expected that the ammonia market will still rise.

The domestic acetic acid market is relatively strong in consolidation and operation. After the festival, the downstream replenishment and the enthusiasm for entering the market are relatively high. In addition, the main factory devices in North China and Northwest China are short stopped and negative, and the supply on the market is reduced. The market is bullish, and the price of acetic acid is rising all the way under the mood of buying up or not.

According to the monitoring of bulk data of Business News Agency, as of February 3, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3295 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.83% compared with the price of 3000 yuan/ton on January 27, and a year-on-year increase of 12.65%. As of February 3, the market price of acetic acid in various regions during the week was as follows:

Region/ January 28, February 3/ Price rise and fall

South China/ 3075 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ +100

North China/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ +200

Shandong region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3200 yuan/ton/ +150

Jiangsu Province/ 2900 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ +175

Zhejiang Province/ 3000 yuan/ton/ 3175 yuan/ton/ +175

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuated widely. As of February 3, the average price in the domestic market was 2704 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.52% compared with the price of 2690 yuan/ton on January 27. After the holiday, the demand was stimulated, and the methanol market rose sharply. However, because the price rose too fast, the acceptance of the downstream was not high, and some of the downstream had the demand for inventory discharge. The market bought gas generally, and the price of methanol fell in a narrow range.

The downstream acetic anhydride market was up. As of February 3, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5475 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.82% compared with the price of 5325 yuan/ton on January 27. The upstream acetic acid price rose sharply, the acetic anhydride cost support was good, the downstream replenishment after the festival, the demand was stable, the market negotiation atmosphere was good, and the acetic anhydride market rose and operated.

The downstream butyl acetate market fluctuated and went up. As of February 3, the average ex-factory price of ethyl acetate in East China was 7450 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.24% compared with the price of 7287 yuan/ton on January 27. The raw material acetic acid market went up, and the downstream products were replenished in succession. The market profit was mostly good, and the market was strong.

According to the aftermarket forecast, the acetic acid analyst of the business agency believes that the downstream stock is active after the holiday, the supply of acetic acid in the field is less, the price of acetic acid continues to rise under the multiple benefits, the later maintenance device recovers, the utilization rate of acetic acid capacity increases, the supply of acetic acid in the field increases, and the downstream demand gradually returns to rationality. It is expected that the acetic acid market will operate on a wait-and-see basis, and the price will fluctuate in a small range. Pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

According to the data of the Business News Agency, the spot market price of gold on February 2, 2023 was 424.66 yuan/g, up 0.7% per day, up 3.60% from the early average spot market price of 409.89 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (January 1); Compared with the early average spot market price of 389.84 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), the increase was 8.93%.

According to the data of Business News Agency, the average price of silver market on February 2, 2023 was 5293.67 yuan/kg, up 2.13% per day, down 0.96 from the average price of spot market at the beginning of the year (January 1) at 5345 yuan/kg; Compared with the early average spot market price of 4368.33 yuan/kg at the beginning of October 2022 (October 1), the increase was 21.18%.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in the past year

In 2022, the rise and fall trend of precious metal gold and silver will converge, but in April and August, silver will fall deeper, and the recent recovery will be more obvious. In December, silver will continue the strong market of last month, and gold will start to consolidate at a high level. In 2023, the price of precious metal gold will improve and silver will consolidate at a high level.

Macro fundamentals

The first rate increase by the Federal Reserve in 2023 met expectations

In 2023, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point interest rate increase at its first interest rate meeting, raising the target range of the policy interest rate, the federal funds rate, from 4.25% to 4.50% to 4.50% to 4.75%. At the subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell said that it would take time to tighten the financial situation after considering raising interest rates for about two more times and then suspending it. Powell remained confident in the soft landing of the US economy and believed that the US Congress would raise the debt ceiling, saying: “This is necessary”.

The first rate increase by the Federal Reserve in 2023 is basically in line with expectations, and the current rate increase by the United States is indeed coming to an end.

2. The European Central Bank has a high probability of following up the interest rate increase

In the UK, in view of the fact that the domestic inflation rate is still at the highest level in the past 40 years, the market expects the Bank of England to continue its most aggressive interest rate increase path in the past 30 years, by 50 basis points. In the euro area, President Lagarde of the European Central Bank recently made it clear that the European Central Bank will continue to raise interest rates and fight against high inflation. It is widely expected that the European Central Bank will cut its balance sheet while raising interest rates by 50 basis points.

Supply and demand fundamentals

According to the data of the World Gold Association, the annual gold demand (excluding OTC trading) in 2022 increased by 18% to 4741 tons year-on-year, which is the highest annual total demand since 2011. In 2022, the global central bank’s annual demand for gold purchase reached 1136 tons, more than double the 450 tons of the previous year and hit a new high in 55 years. In the fourth quarter of 2022 alone, global central banks purchased 417 tons of gold, and the total amount of gold purchased in the second half of the year also exceeded 800 tons.

On the supply side, in 2022, the global total supply of gold continued a mild upward trajectory, with a year-on-year increase of 2% to 4755 tons, which remained above the pre-epidemic level. It is worth noting that the output of gold mine reached a new high in four years, increasing to 3612 tons.

Domestically, according to the latest statistics of the China Gold Association, in 2022, the domestic raw material gold output was 372.048 tons, an increase of 43.065 tons compared with the same period in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 13.09%, including 295.423 tons of gold minerals and 76.625 tons of non-ferrous by-products. In addition, the gold production of imported raw materials in 2022 will be 125.784 tons, up 9.78% year on year. If this part of the gold production of imported raw materials is added, the country will produce 497.832 tons of gold, up 12.24% year on year. In 2022, the national gold consumption was 1001.74 tons, down 10.63% from the same period in 2021. Among them: 654.32 tons of gold jewelry, down 8.01% year on year; 258.94 tons of gold bars and coins, down 17.23% year on year; Industrial and other gold consumption was 88.48 tons, down 8.55% year on year. The People’s Bank of China continuously increased its gold holdings in November and December, with a total increase of 62.21 tons. By the end of 2022, China’s gold reserves had reached 2010.53 tons.

Precious metal aftermarket

Precious metals are relatively sensitive to macro fundamental factors due to their strong monetary attributes. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 points for the first time in 2023, basically in line with market expectations. At the same time, the market’s expectation of the gradual end of the current interest rate increase cycle began to be strong. The US dollar index and the US bond interest rate both fell sharply, which also contributed to the short-term rise of precious metals. However, the signal released after the meeting that the interest rate will not be cut this year and the economy will maintain moderate growth will also have some pressure on the continued rise of precious metal prices, including the upward energy. In the short term, it is expected that the price of precious metals will be mainly stable and strong.

Glycol prices rose slightly in January

In January 2023, the price of ethylene glycol moved up. According to the data of Business News Agency, on January 30, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4375 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the beginning of the month was 4050 yuan/ton, up 8.02%.

On January 30, the spot price of ethylene glycol in the East China market was basically stable, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in East China was 4240-4350 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is basically stable, and the spot price range of mainstream manufacturers in South China is 4250 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the North China market was basically stable, and the spot price of mainstream manufacturers in North China remained at 4350 yuan/ton.

Downstream polyester market is good, which is good for ethylene glycol price. The spot center of gravity of ethylene glycol has moved up, and the production of large units has been reduced and changed, which has boosted market confidence and superimposed market expectations for demand recovery. As of January 29, 2023, the overall starting load of ethylene glycol in China was 59.6%, down 4.3 percentage points on a month-on-month basis, and the coal load remained about 57%, relatively stable. The integrated device stopped unexpectedly and the device load decreased.

Overview of fundamentals

In terms of inventory, as of January 29, 2023, the inventory of the main storage area of ethylene glycol in East China was 1.0327 million tons, with seasonal accumulation.

In terms of supply, affected by the shutdown and decline of some large plants during the Spring Festival, the EG operation rate has dropped to 60%, and will be gradually restored after the festival. At present, the output of domestic stock devices is expected to continue to increase in the near future, and the total supply of EG may continue to increase.

Aftermarket forecast

In January, the price of ethylene glycol recovered, on the one hand, due to the impact of oil price driving and low valuation of itself, on the other hand, due to the reduction and conversion of large units, which boosted market confidence, the price may rebound. However, the supply and demand structure of medium and long term fundamentals is still weak, and it is expected that the volatility probability of glycol price platform will increase.