The domestic acetic acid market is stable and wait-and-see, with no pressure on corporate inventory. We maintain active shipments and follow up on demand when entering the market downstream. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable, and the industry has a wait-and-see mentality. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and the price trend of acetic acid is stable and operating.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 21, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 3300.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 3300.00 yuan/ton on May 15 and an increase of 2.06% compared to the beginning of the month. As of May 21, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions in the week were as follows:

The upstream raw material methanol market has fluctuated and declined. As of May 21, the average price in the domestic market was 2282.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.28% compared to the price of 2335.83 yuan/ton on May 15. Futures prices fell, raw coal remained weak, downstream demand remained weak for a long time, social inventory accumulated in the methanol market, and imported goods also continued to pour in, so the price of methanol spot market declined.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is on the rise. As of May 21, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5480.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 5480.00 yuan/ton on May 15. Upstream acetic acid prices have stabilized, and the supply of acetic anhydride costs has remained stable. Downstream procurement of acetic anhydride follows up on demand, and market negotiations have been conducted. The price of acetic anhydride is mainly stabilizing.

In the future market forecast, acetic acid analysts from Business Society believe that the current supply of acetic acid in the market remains rational, enterprises maintain a pace of shipment, and downstream parties follow up on demand. The market trading atmosphere is acceptable, and the industry is expected to have a wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the acetic acid market will consolidate and operate in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of the business agency, the price of neopentyl glycol in the domestic market fell slightly this week. This week, the average price of the mainstream market of neopentyl glycol in China dropped from 10766.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10633.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.24%. Weekend prices fell by 36.83% year-on-year. On May 21, the new pentanediol commodity index was 51.24, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 50.55% from the cycle’s highest point of 103.61 points (2021-09-22), and an increase of 19.02% from the lowest point of 43.05 points on November 28, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

The price of neopentyl glycol in the mainstream market fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of neopentyl glycol upstream raw material market, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of domestic isobutyraldehyde mainstream market fell from 9200.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8533.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 7.25%. Weekend prices fell 47.65% year-on-year. The price of upstream raw material market fell sharply, and the cost support weakened. Affected by the supply and demand, the price of neopentyl glycol was negatively affected.

3、 Future prospects

In late May, the trend of the new pentanediol market may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has significantly declined, and cost support has weakened. The downstream paint market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the short term, the market for new pentanediol may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand, as well as raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, the average price of PS at the beginning of this week was 9566 yuan/ton, and the average price of PS at the weekend was 9500 yuan/ton. The price decreased slightly by 0.70%, a decrease of 11.63% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The international crude oil market closed down, styrene prices rose and explored, while downstream buying followed up poorly, making it difficult for merchants to boost their confidence. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is between 8400 and 10050 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is between 9000 and 10400 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The downstream purchasing interest of PS is not good, and it is expected that the PS (polystyrene) market will be mainly volatile and weak in the short term.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China showed a slight downward trend in the first half of May 2023. Among them, on the 1st, the market reported around 14728 yuan/ton, and on the 15th, the market reported around 14528 yuan/ton, a half month decline of 1.36%.

As shown in the figure, the polyacrylamide market in China has been weakening for several weeks since 2023. The weekly decline in April has expanded, and the decline in the first half of May has slightly narrowed. From the market, it is known that the demand in the water treatment industry has been unfavorable, with normal production from manufacturers in the main production areas and sufficient spot supply in the market. The situation of weak supply and demand has not been improved, resulting in the market not being able to rise and “business is difficult to do”. The polyacrylamide market has not shown any signs of improvement.

Raw material acrylonitrile: According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the acrylonitrile market initially fluctuated upwards in May and then slightly rebounded. As of May 15th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9812.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.55% from 9662.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. However, the highest price point at this stage was 9862.5 yuan/ton from May 9-14. At present, the supply pressure of acrylonitrile has slightly eased, and although there is still strong demand support, the demand side has weakened compared to the previous period. In addition, the cost side is declining, and it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

Raw Material Acrylic Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the acrylic acid market fluctuated and declined in the first half of May. Among them, this month’s premium grade acrylic acid market in East China reported around 6800 yuan/ton on the 1st, but dropped to 6375 yuan/ton on the 15th, a decrease of 6.25%. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has fallen slightly, the cost support is slightly weak, and the operating rate of the supply side industry is slightly lower than that of the previous period. However, the demand side performance is general, the market trading atmosphere is light, manufacturers are active in shipping, and the focus of acrylic acid negotiation has declined in a narrow range. It is expected that the acrylic market will wait and see the narrow range finishing operation in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas prices continued to fluctuate slightly after a significant decline in the first half of May, with a weak trend. Among them, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China on May 1st was 4416 yuan/ton, and on May 15th it was 3964 yuan/ton, a half month decrease of 10.24%.

Future forecast: Both raw material and fuel prices will decline in May, and the overall cost of polyacrylamide will continue to be weak. The prosperity of China’s water treatment industry continues to be low, with manufacturers in the main production areas producing normally and abundant in stock. Downstream demand has not improved and there is a lack of enthusiasm. Regarding the future market, the polyacrylamide market will continue to be mainly weak.

According to data from Business News Agency, the domestic maleic anhydride market has been declining this week. As of May 14, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7370.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.90% compared to May 8′s price of 7590.00 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 7.18% compared to the same period last month.

On May 14th, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 69.43, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 58.28% from the cycle’s highest point of 166.43 points (2021-12-15), and an increase of 35.66% from the lowest point of 51.18 points on April 14th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

At present, the domestic benzene based maleic anhydride market is gradually starting to operate. Recently, the downstream resin market has been weak, and the enthusiasm for replenishment of maleic anhydride is average. The international crude oil market is weak, coupled with a significant decline in the price of raw material n-butane, and the maleic anhydride market continues to decline. As of the 14th, the solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6800 yuan/ton, Jiangsu region is around 6800 yuan/ton, and South China region is around 7200 yuan/ton.

On the upstream side, the price of pure benzene fell this week, with an average price of 7190 yuan/ton on May 8th and 7110 yuan/ton on May 12th, a decrease of 4.24%. The factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China has been lowered, from 7200 yuan/ton last weekend to 7066.67 yuan/ton this weekend, a decrease of 1.85%. The market for n-butane has significantly declined this week, with prices in Shandong reaching around 4700 yuan/ton as of May 14th.

Business Society maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the current market for n-butane in the upstream of maleic anhydride has significantly declined, while the downstream resin market is weak. In addition, the international crude oil market is weak, resulting in a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will be dominated by consolidation in the near future.

Overview of ethylene glycol market

According to data from Business News Agency, on May 12th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4258.33 yuan/ton, with prices in various regions as follows:

The price range for spot goods executed by mainstream manufacturers in East China is between 3950-4350 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4200 yuan/ton, while the price range for mainstream manufacturers in Central China is 4100 yuan/ton; The spot price for mainstream manufacturers in North China is 4300 yuan/ton.

List of International CIF Prices

On May 12th, the CIF price of ethylene glycol in China was 515 US dollars/ton,; The CIF Southeast Asia price is 528 US dollars/ton.

Starting to destock ethylene glycol port inventory

At present, inventory is still relatively high. As of May 11th, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the East China main port was 940900 tons, and it began operating in the range of less than 1 million tons. Recently, the main reason for going to the warehouse is that the pace of port shipments has increased. In addition, the number of ports this week is relatively small, and it is expected that the landing month on month ratio will increase next week.

Expected growth in overseas supply in May, with off-season maintenance in China

Some maintenance devices in North America and Saudi Arabia have been restarted, and the overseas supply increment is clear. Some existing maintenance devices have plans to restart, so it is expected that ethylene glycol production may increase slightly in May. On the domestic side, some enterprises have started to carry out maintenance and cash in.

Downstream demand is weak

Downstream, the scale of polyester maintenance has increased, and the polyester load continues to decline, mainly because the terminal is temporarily unable to withstand high priced raw materials, and the operating rate of the weaving machine has decreased. On the one hand, the expectation of overseas economic recession is strong, and terminal foreign trade is mainly dominated by small and medium-sized orders, and the export situation is not optimistic; On the other hand, May is about to usher in the textile off-season, and the current poor acceptance of new orders in the textile market may lead to a decrease in the weaving start-up rate. The negative feedback from the bottom up of terminal shutdown is heating up, and the polyester production reduction continues, which may weaken the demand for raw material ethylene glycol.

Weak upward momentum on the spot end

At present, the average spot price of ethylene glycol is within a relatively low range in history, but the supply pressure of ethylene glycol is still in the short term. In terms of demand, the start of terminal looms has slightly weakened, and some polyester factories are still in a low start state, suppressing the upward trend of ethylene glycol prices; The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are still weak.

Ethylene glycol has been at a negative profit level for a long time, and is currently mainly supported by the weakening of supply caused by mid to long-term production changes and the expected improvement in downstream demand; We still need to wait and see the specific expected landing performance.

It is expected that in the short term, the probability of weak and volatile ethylene glycol trading in the future will increase, with an average price range of around 3950-4250 yuan/ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of May 11th, the reference average price of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in China was 6550 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 5.35% compared to the reference average price of 6920 yuan/ton on May 4th.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6683 yuan/ton, which is 3.84% lower than the reference average price of 6950 yuan/ton on May 4th.

2、 Market analysis

The price of phosphoric acid market continued to decline this week. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and yellow phosphorus continue to decline, with weak cost support. Downstream demand continues to be sluggish, market transactions are poor, and the bearish sentiment in the phosphoric acid market is strong. As of May 11th, the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 5900-6500 yuan/ton, while the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan region is around 6500 yuan/ton, and the factory quotation for 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6350-6450 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6350-7100 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material yellow phosphorus, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market fell this week. At present, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus is poor, and the demand on the market continues to be weak. The inventory on site is under pressure, and some enterprises are stopping for maintenance to alleviate the pressure. The manufacturer will not provide a quotation to the public for the time being, and will discuss the actual order in detail. Downstream procurement is more cautious, with lower prices and a downward focus on the transaction price of new orders. As of now, the mainstream quotation is around 20000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market has been weak and declining this week, with the overall focus of the market exploring downward. At present, although the overall support for the supply side of phosphate rock in China is still acceptable, the overall operating rate downstream of the phosphate rock industry chain is relatively low, and the demand for phosphate rock in some regions has weakened. The overall atmosphere in phosphate rock yards is average, and some mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate rock by around 20-50 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society, the phosphoric acid market has remained weak in recent days, with raw material prices decreasing and cost side support weakening. Downstream demand is weak, and the mentality of buying up instead of buying down has increased, with a focus on wait-and-see. Under the influence of negative factors, the phosphoric acid market price is expected to continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of business cooperatives, the average price of domestic liquid caprolactam market was 12683 yuan/ton on May 1, and 12666 yuan/ton on May 8. Caprolactam prices fell 0.13% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam market fell in shock this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. Some caprolactam enterprises have reduced market supply and supply of goods due to equipment maintenance. However, downstream demand performance is insufficient, with on-demand procurement being the main focus and weak market transactions.

The price of raw material pure benzene continued to decline this week. On May 8th, the domestic price of pure benzene ranged from 7050 to 7330 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7163 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.63% compared to last week. As of May 8th, Sinopec Group North China region: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton, Shijiazhuang Refining and Chemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 7300 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Caprolactam analysts from the business community believe that the price of raw material pure benzene has weakened recently, and the cost side support is weak. Insufficient follow-up at the terminal and insufficient market transactions. It is expected that caprolactam market price will be slightly adjusted and operated in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on May 1st was 5533 yuan/ton. On May 6th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5500 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 decreased by 0.60% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Chlorinated paraffin market prices fell this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax continued to decline, with insufficient cost support. Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are weak, and the industry is mainly bearish. As of May 6th, the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast region is about 5500-5800 yuan/ton, and the ex factory quotation for chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong region is about 4500-5200 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax continued to decline this week, and the market downturn continued. Liquid wax fluctuated with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong region has been continuously declining this week, resulting in a cold trading atmosphere and weak market performance.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Chlorinated paraffin analysts from Business Society believe that the market for raw material liquid chlorine and liquid wax has continued to weaken recently, weakening cost support. The terminal demand is sluggish, with small purchases and relatively few transactions. It is expected that the market price of chlorinated paraffin will fall in the short term.

After the holiday, the plasticizer DOP rose in response

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the prices of plasticizer products have skyrocketed after the holiday. As of May 4th, the price of DOP was 10367.50 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 6.78% compared to the price of 9709.17 yuan/ton on May 1st; On May 4th, the price of DOTP was 10361 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.61% compared to the price of 9811 yuan/ton on May 1st; On May 4th, the DBP price was 9525 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.11% compared to the price of 9237.50 yuan/ton on May 1st. During the May Day holiday, equipment malfunctions occurred in isooctanol manufacturers. After the holiday, the price of isooctanol skyrocketed, and the prices of raw materials skyrocketed. In response, the price of plasticizers skyrocketed after the holiday.

The price of isooctanol skyrocketed after the holiday

From the comparison of prices of major isooctanol manufacturers before and after the May Day holiday, it can be seen that the prices of major isooctanol enterprises have skyrocketed after the holiday. Due to the impact of hydrogen peroxide equipment accidents, it has been difficult to ship isooctanol, resulting in a surge in isooctanol prices, a significant increase in the cost of plasticizer products, and an increase in the upward momentum of plasticizers.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that due to the impact of the Luxi chemical accident, the price of isooctanol has skyrocketed, and the cost of plasticizer products has increased, leading to a significant increase in plasticizer product prices. In the future, as isooctanol manufacturers resume supply, the cost of plasticizer raw materials is bound to fall, and the demand for plasticizers remains weak, with insufficient support for downstream increases. It is expected that plasticizer prices will remain high in the short term, and then may fall back from high levels.