According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 21, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7325.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.68% compared to March 15 (the reference price of melamine was 7375.00 yuan).

During this period (3.15-3.21), the melamine market continued to decline, and the supply-demand contradiction in the market still existed. Small transactions were mainly in demand, and some companies were under pressure to ship, resulting in price reductions. On March 21, the mainstream ex factory price reference for melamine in East China was around 6600-6700 yuan/ton, with actual orders mainly negotiated.

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market in Shengyishe, the reference price for urea on March 20th was 2501.67, a decrease of 0.73% compared to March 1st (2520.00). Recently, the urea market in Shandong has slightly declined, providing moderate support for the melamine market. Short term cost side support may still be limited.

Supply and demand side: Some companies on the supply side are experiencing fluctuations in their equipment, and the industry is still operating at a high level of around 70%. The market supply is sufficient, but the demand side is following slowly. The downstream board market is mainly affected by the real estate industry, and the demand for melamine in the market is average. The demand side is generally weak, and companies are willing to offer more profits and take orders. The downstream procurement mentality is still cautious, and in the short term, the market supply is strong and the demand is weak, which may continue.

In summary, there is still insufficient short-term market support, but in the early stage, the price of melamine has continued to weaken, and companies have weak intentions to sell low. Downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, and the market atmosphere is average. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may remain stagnant and wait-and-see. The specific trend still needs to pay attention to market news guidance.

The price of ethylene oxide slightly increased in mid March. According to data from Business Society, as of March 21st, the average market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to before the holiday; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6700-6900 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6800 yuan/ton.

At present, the domestic production of ethylene oxide has started relatively steadily, and there are expectations of tight supply in some regions. In the short term, there are some maintenance plans for individual units that need to be fulfilled.

Overview of the ethylene oxide industry chain

The prices of downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomers have rebounded, and the prices of related products such as ethylene glycol have started to loosen recently. Overall, the demand for downstream monomers is average, while the demand for polyethers, esters, and other materials for purchasing ethylene oxide is good.

Future market forecast

The demand for downstream products of ethylene oxide may have positive expectations with the start of terminal real estate construction. The supply side is affected by factors related to production conversion, resulting in an improvement in supply expectations. However, overall, the downstream infrastructure industry is cautious about high priced monomers, and it is expected that the upward space is relatively limited, which may suppress the upward trend of raw material ethylene oxide. In the short term, it is expected that the price of ethylene oxide will continue to fluctuate strongly.

Product Name: PVC

Latest price: 5642 yuan/ton

Analysis point: On March 20th, the spot market price of PVC continued to rise. The significant increase in futures prices has boosted confidence in the spot market, with most manufacturers raising prices and distributors following suit, making it difficult to find low prices in the market. At present, the quotation for PVC SG5 is mostly around 5450-5790 yuan/ton. On site traders are relatively active, while downstream processing enterprises have a calm demand and are more cautious in market transactions.

It is expected that the PVC spot market will operate strongly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrachloroethylene market has been operating steadily this week (3.11-3.15). The average market price at the beginning of the week is 5012 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price is 5050 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.75%.

2、 Analysis and Review

The price of tetrachloroethylene remained stable among major manufacturers this week, with mainstream prices ranging from 5000 to 5200 yuan/ton. Dealers closely follow the market’s upward trend, with tight supply and stable market operation. Due to the variety structure of downstream refrigerant R125, the production enterprise has a low quota and is mostly used for mixing. The enterprise has a strong reluctance to sell and a strong willingness to raise prices.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that demand continues to support, and it is expected that the tetrachloroethylene market will have the possibility of stabilizing and exploring an increase in the future.

Aluminum prices slightly rebounded at the end of the month

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market on March 15, 2024 was 19190 yuan/ton, an increase of 220 yuan/ton from the average market price of 18970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.16%.

Macro positive aluminum price resonance

The expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut in June is strong, and the non-ferrous sector continues to strengthen. As an international product with strong financial attributes, aluminum prices slightly rebounded in March.

Fundamentals of supply and demand: Strong supply-demand relationship

At present, the domestic aluminum ingot supply is at a historical high level, and the actual production is relatively large. Although the social inventory is lower than expected, it is mainly due to the significant increase in the proportion of aluminum water. There are rumors in the market that Yunnan will partially resume production in late March, but the probability of large-scale resumption in Yunnan is relatively low, as hydropower has not significantly increased and new energy installed capacity has grown rapidly. However, the promotion of electrolytic aluminum resumption is limited.

On the consumer side, downstream work continues to resume, and orders for other sectors except for building profiles are still available. Downstream aluminum rod production continues to rise, while the recovery speed of aluminum profiles and aluminum plates is slightly weak. The domestic meeting in March continues to release positive consumer sentiment.

Future Market Forecast

The traditional peak season for consumption is approaching, and downstream demand may improve. The production capacity and operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum cables, aluminum plates and strips, aluminum foils, primary aluminum alloys, and recycled aluminum alloys are gradually recovering with the resumption of production and work. The future spot trading is expected to improve from the current light trend. It is expected that aluminum prices will experience strong fluctuations in the short term.

The melamine market has declined this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 14th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7375.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67% compared to Monday’s price.

Cost side: According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the reference price of urea on March 13th was 2516.67, a decrease of 0.13% compared to March 1st (2520.00). Since March, the price of raw material urea has fluctuated and fallen narrowly, providing insufficient support for the melamine market.

Supply and demand side: Recently, the production capacity utilization rate of the melamine industry has been above 70%, and the industry has started at a high level. However, the demand side has not followed up enough, and the downstream intention to replenish demand is not strong. Many people hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the market’s new orders and transactions are average. The phenomenon of enterprises offering discounts and shipping is obvious, and the focus of negotiations in the melamine market is downward.

Melamine analysts from Business Society believe that there is still a short-term supply-demand contradiction in the market, lacking strong positive factors to support it. With a strong wait-and-see attitude, it is expected that the melamine market will be mainly weak in the short term, and more attention still needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of cryolite in Henan region remained stable this week. On March 14th, the average market price in Henan region was 7600 yuan/ton, which is the same as the average price of 7600 yuan/ton on March 8th, with a month on month decrease of 0.33%.

This week, the ice crystal market remained stable and cautious, with stable prices for enterprises being the main focus. Upstream raw material fluorite mines face difficulties in starting production, and spot prices continue to be tight. The overall price is still at a relatively high level in the fluorite industry, and the cost pressure on cryolite continues. Most cryolite manufacturers have offered firm prices, while some companies have lowered prices to promote negotiations on the shipment of cryolite. The overall market is stable. At the same time, downstream parties have a resistance to cryolite prices, and they follow up with more purchases as needed. The market trading atmosphere is average, and the cryolite market is wait-and-see. As of March 14th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8600 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8200 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market has slightly increased, with an average market price of 3356.25 yuan/ton on March 14th, an increase of 0.19% compared to the price of 3350.00 yuan/ton on March 8th. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and the operating rate of enterprises remains low. In addition, fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, making it more difficult to operate fluorite mines. The shortage of raw materials has restricted the operation of fluorite enterprises. Downstream procurement is mostly followed up on demand, and market trading is limited. The fluorite price market is observing and consolidating.

Market forecast: The supply of ice crystal raw materials is tight, the cost of ice crystal is high, and the on-site ice crystal quotation continues to be strong. Downstream purchasing enthusiasm for entering the market is insufficient, and buyers follow up on demand. Manufacturers have limited shipments, and the mentality of operators is not good. It is expected that the ice crystal market will be adjusted downward in the future, and attention will be paid to upstream price changes and downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has recently risen. On March 13th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3100 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3050 yuan/ton on March 7th, an increase of 1.64%, and a decrease of 6.06% compared to the previous month.

Recently, the acetic acid market has been relatively strong and rising. Last weekend, the factory’s shipments were smooth, and the company’s inventory decreased. With the resumption of upstream and downstream operations, there was an increase in restocking in the market. The market trading atmosphere was good, and the quotation of acetic acid manufacturers was raised. However, downstream demand was limited, and the enthusiasm for on-site procurement slowed down, resulting in a stable operation of acetic acid prices.

As of March 13th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions are as follows:

Region/ March 7th/ March 13th/ Rise and fall

South China region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 3025 yuan/ton/ fifty

North China region/ 2975 yuan/ton/ 3050 yuan/ton/ seventy-five

Shandong region/ 3050 yuan/ton/ 3100 yuan/ton/ fifty

Jiangsu region/ 2925 yuan/ton/ 2975 yuan/ton/ fifty

Zhejiang region/ 3025 yuan/ton/ 3075 yuan/ton/ fifty

The upstream raw material methanol market first rose and then fell. On March 13th, the average price in the domestic market was 2701.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.37% compared to the price of 2711.67 yuan/ton on March 7th. The maintenance and production reduction of methanol plants are significant, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization and a favorable supply side. Methanol prices have increased, but downstream main factories have shut down, resulting in insufficient demand support and a decline in methanol prices due to the impact of demand.

The downstream acetic anhydride market continues to rise. On March 13th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5512.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.28% compared to the price of 5337.50 yuan/ton on March 7th. The price of acetic acid has rebounded, the cost of acetic anhydride has increased, the inventory of acetic anhydride manufacturers is low, and downstream demand is mainly in demand. Under the favorable cost situation, the price of acetic anhydride has risen accordingly.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Shengyishe believes that although there is an upward trend in the price of acetic acid, the overall market capacity utilization rate is high, and the on-site supply is sufficient. Downstream purchasing is mainly based on demand, with limited on-site trading. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will remain stable and wait-and-see, and attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the PP market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in early March, with prices of various wire drawing brands adjusting narrowly. As of March 12th, the mainstream quoted price for T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7707.14 yuan/ton, which has basically fallen back to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industry chain: In terms of PP raw materials, the price effect has been diluted due to the reduction of international crude oil OPEC production and the tense news of Red Sea shipping in the early stage, which has recently loosened support for the high cost of oil to PP production. After the rise of propylene, downstream demand was suppressed and entered a downward trend, with a moderate impact on PP. In terms of PDH, propane continues to fluctuate narrowly and its price remains relatively stable. The methanol market is also relatively stable. The upstream raw materials are generally stable, and the overall support for PP is relatively weak.

Overall, the raw material industry is generally average, with slight loosening of support for the PP cost side. In terms of industry load, the average industry load is over 76%, and there has been a recent return of some production lines. At the same time, new production capacity will be implemented and discharged in March, with an expected increase in production. The market supply of goods remains abundant, and the inventory digestion situation last week was still good, but the overall inventory position is still high, with slightly greater pressure on on-site supply. In terms of demand, the basic return of end enterprises has been completed, and the comprehensive operating rates of downstream PP enterprises such as plastic weaving, film materials, and injection molding are about 39%, 64%, and 52%, respectively, with no significant improvement. The replenishment operation of enterprises is average, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange is not strong. The overall market for wire drawing materials is mixed, with a dilemma of ups and downs.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of March 12th, the spot price of domestic fiber PP has also increased. The mainstream quoted price for domestic producers and traders of Z30S (fiber) is around 7525 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.17% compared to the average price at the beginning of the month, and a decrease of 4.34% compared to the same period last year. Recently, the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials have seen an increase in load, with operating rates increasing by about 2% to 23% compared to the beginning of the month, and operating levels remain at a low level. The digestion speed of end products is sideways, and the demand for non-woven fabrics in the market is mainly based on contracts. The support for fiber material prices is average, and it is expected that the fiber material market will continue to consolidate.

In terms of melt blown materials, the melt blown PP market has recovered this week. As of March 12th, the average quotation of domestic melt blown material sample enterprises monitored by the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe is about 7975 yuan/ton. Compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month, the increase and decrease is -0.31%, and there is a decrease of 12.68% compared to the same period last year. At present, the demand for facial protection in China is generally high, and the consumption of medical melt blown fabric materials is not significantly driven. There is also no significant boost in domestic and foreign demand. In addition, downstream factories have a low load, resulting in new orders leaning towards loose orders. It is expected that the melt blown material market will continue to be weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

PP analysts from Business Society believe that the polypropylene market remained stable and volatile in early March. The overall trend of upstream raw materials is average, and the support from the cost side for the market is narrow and loose. The resumption of work by terminal enterprises did not meet expectations, and their willingness to stock up was not strong. There is a plan for the return of PP maintenance equipment in the near future, and there are also production facilities. There is an expectation of increased supply in the future. The current resistance to PP consumption is relatively high, and the supply side is under pressure. It is expected that the PP market will enter a weak consolidation period in the short term.

Recent trends in urea prices

Agricultural demand is gradually starting, and urea prices in Shandong have slightly increased this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong increased from 2515 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2520 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.20%, and the weekend price decreased by 11.07% year-on-year.

From the supply side, the current operating rate of urea enterprises is around 80%, and the daily urea production in China is about 180000 tons. The mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong saw a slight increase in factory prices during the week.

Details of the price of Yangquan anthracite coal this week

Variety/ March 4th/ March 10th/ Changes

Anthracite coal (washed lump)/ 1050 yuan/ton/ 1050 yuan/ton/ None

From the upstream market, there were ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week. The circulation of liquefied natural gas market was limited, the release of terminal demand was slow, and the trading atmosphere was poor. The price of liquefied natural gas fell by 2.53%, and the weekend price fell by 23.67% year-on-year. The price of liquid ammonia increased by 3.45%, and the weekend price fell by 27.38% year-on-year. However, the price of anthracite remains stable for the time being, with the price of Yangquan anthracite (washed lump) at 1050 yuan/ton over the weekend, indicating a continued weak trend in the coal market in the short term. Overall, upstream raw material prices fluctuate, providing moderate support for urea prices.

From the perspective of downstream demand: agricultural demand is gradually starting, and industrial demand is following the market. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, with a focus on procurement for essential needs. The downstream price of melamine in urea has slightly increased this week, rising from 7450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7500 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.67%.

Looking ahead, the urea market in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and increase in mid to late March. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream urea market has ups and downs, and the cost support for urea is average. But downstream agricultural demand is gradually starting, with industrial primary demand. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and mainly rise.