1、 Market Overview
This week, the domestic melamine market first stabilized, then surged and fell back, showing an overall weak fluctuation pattern. As of October 13th, the benchmark price of urea was 1757.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the beginning of this month (1780.00 yuan/ton).
The raw material side urea weakened synchronously. As of October 13th, the benchmark price of urea was 1757.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.26% compared to the beginning of this month (1780.00 yuan/ton), indicating a loosening of cost support.
2、 Technical analysis
From the perspective of moving average system and price percentile:
1. Moving average trend: The spot price of melamine has been running above the 10 day moving average for a long time in the early part of this week. The 10 day moving average continues to be higher than the 20 day moving average, and the moving average remains positive. In the short term, it has bullish momentum, which drives the price to briefly rise; On October 11th, the price surged and peaked before quickly falling back. On October 12th, the spot price fell below the 10 day moving average and approached the 20 day moving average, indicating a short-term downward trend of the moving average and releasing a short-term adjustment signal. The 10 day moving average has turned flat, while the 20 day moving average still maintains a slow upward trend, and the support for the medium and long-term moving averages has not been completely destroyed.
2. Price range: On October 12th, the price was at a low level during the 10 day cycle, and remained in the mid to high range during the 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, and 90 day cycles; The one-year dimension is at a medium low level. This indicates a rapid short-term price pullback, but in the medium to long term, the market is still in a relatively high range, and the short-term rapid pullback belongs to the recovery of a pullback after a high-level oscillation.
3、 Fundamental Logic
supply side
Domestic melamine enterprises have maintained relatively stable production, with sufficient overall supply of goods. During the initial price stabilization phase, factory shipments were normal. However, after the price surge, downstream buyers showed insufficient willingness to take on orders, resulting in weak factory price support and a subsequent decline in prices. The downward trend in raw material urea prices has to some extent eased the cost pressure on production enterprises, but also weakened the upward support on the product cost side.
Demand side
Downstream industries such as sheet metal and impregnated paper have limited post holiday stocking efforts, with a focus on essential procurement and weak willingness to chase after high demand. After a brief surge this week, downstream wait-and-see sentiment has heated up, and there is insufficient follow-up on large transactions, making it difficult to sustain price support, which is the core reason for this round of surge and decline.
4、 Market analysis and judgment
The short-term melamine market may continue to fluctuate weakly. On the technical side, there is a warning signal that the moving average has crossed below, and there is a possibility of continued pressure in the short term; The raw material urea market is weak, and cost support is weakened. There is currently no clear expectation of a rebound in downstream demand, and high prices are suppressing terminal procurement.
If the subsequent price continues to fall below the support of the 20 day moving average, the downward pressure on the market will be further amplified; If the 20 day moving average effectively supports the bottom, the market is likely to maintain range oscillation. Follow up will focus on tracking changes in urea raw material prices, downstream sheet industry operating rates, and factory inventory changes.

LLDPE (7042) had an average price of 9390 yuan/ton on October 1st and 9950 yuan/ton on October 13th, an increase of 5.96%. LDPE (2426H) had an average price of 12133 yuan/ton on October 1st and 12733 yuan/ton on October 13th, an increase of 4.95%. HDPE (5000S) had an average price of 10475 yuan/ton on October 1st and 11087 yuan/ton on October 13th, accounting for 5.85%.
Geopolitical factors support high crude oil prices, and the external market for ethylene is relatively strong, providing cost support for PE. The continuous compression of profits in oil refining and chemical industry has hindered the upward transmission of costs, making it difficult to drive the market to soar alone.
Domestic PE production remains at a moderate level, with maintenance facilities gradually restarting and production gradually recovering. New production capacity continues to be released, and the supply pressure in the fourth quarter has increased month on month. After the holiday, the social inventory has slightly accumulated, but the overall inventory is still low, which provides support for spot goods in the short term.
The current agricultural film has entered the traditional peak season, and the release of orders for greenhouse film and mulching film has mainly driven the formation of polyethylene. Packaging and hollow products have slightly rebounded, but there has been limited improvement in areas such as pipes and injection molding. Downstream consumers are resistant to high priced raw materials, mostly due to immediate demand and weak willingness to actively stockpile, resulting in limited support during peak seasons.
After the holiday, PE quickly rose and is likely to enter a high volatility in the short term. The support for the peak season of agricultural film is gradually weakening, coupled with the release of new production capacity, and there is insufficient motivation to continue the significant increase. If there is no significant increase in crude oil prices in the future, there is a risk of the price center falling back.

After the National Day holiday, the acrylonitrile market price fluctuated upwards due to strong cost push. As of October 9th, the mainstream negotiated price for tank self pickup in the East China market has remained firm at around 11000 yuan/ton, while the mainstream negotiated price for delivery in the Shandong market has gradually rebounded from the price reduction trend during the holiday period to around 10800 yuan/ton at present.
Loose supply:
During the week, Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its production capacity to 90%, and at the same time, Sinopec Tianjin’s 130000 tons/year plant was successfully put into operation and included in the total production capacity. The total domestic acrylonitrile production capacity base reached 5.709 million tons/year, and the overall supply significantly increased. According to statistics, this week (October 2-8), the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached 75.30%, an increase of 2.46% compared to the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 89900 tons, which is+0.49 million tons compared to the previous cycle. During the week, there was an increase in supply, and at the same time, partial shipments during the holidays were slow, leading to an increase in inventory for some companies. On October 8th, the total inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China was about 45000 tons, an increase of+45000 tons from last week.
Average demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has seen limited improvement, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 55.2%, an increase of 0.1% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 70.38%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 55.4%, an increase of 0.74% compared to last week.
Cost increase:
After the holiday, the prices of propylene and synthetic ammonia, the main raw materials, have risen sharply. Therefore, although the price of acrylonitrile has shown a trend of following the rise, the increase is still less than that of raw materials, resulting in the current situation of single product production losses gradually worsening. According to statistics, as of October 8th, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market was 9980-10170 yuan/ton, with an average price of 10075 yuan/ton; The average production cost of acrylonitrile is 12699 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 3.80%; The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was -1598 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -465 yuan/ton.
Post production forecast: Currently, there is ongoing pressure on the cost side, with suppliers continuing to raise prices and spot prices rising. The capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry remains at 73.7%. This market stage rebound is mainly driven by the cost side, and production enterprises are currently experiencing increased losses. There is a strong intention to raise prices. However, there is a lack of significant incremental expectations on the demand side in the short term, especially in the ABS industry, which continues to operate at low loads. The supply-demand relationship is still weak and will continue to suppress market rebound space. Attention should be paid to changes in the supply side.

Following the National Day holiday, the market price of acrylonitrile fluctuated upward due to strong cost-push factors. By October 9, the mainstream negotiated price for off-site self-pickup in the East China market remained firm at around 11,000 yuan per ton, while the mainstream negotiated price for regional delivery in the Shandong market gradually rebounded from the downward trend during the holiday period, currently hovering near 10,800 yuan per ton.
Supply is ample:
During the week, Zhejiang Petrochemical increased its operating load to 90%, while the annual capacity of 130,000 tons at Sinopec Tianjin was successfully put into production, contributing to the total domestic acrylonitrile capacity. The overall domestic acrylonitrile production capacity reached 5.709 million tons annually, with a significant increase in supply. According to statistics, the domestic acrylonitrile industry’s production capacity utilization rate reached 75.30% this week (October 2-8), up 2.46% from the previous week; weekly production was approximately 89,900 tons, an increase of 490 tons compared to the previous week. The weekly supply increment, coupled with slower local shipments during the holiday period, led to rising inventories at some enterprises. On October 8, the total domestic acrylonitrile factory inventory was around 45,000 tons, up 4,500 tons from the previous week.
Average demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rates of major downstream industries showed limited improvement. ABS utilization stood at 55.2%, up 0.1% from the previous week; acrylic fiber producers maintained a utilization rate of 70.38%, unchanged from last week; and acrylamide capacity utilization reached 55.4%, increasing by 0.74% compared to the prior week.
Cost increase:
After the holiday, the prices of major raw materials—propylene and synthetic ammonia—rose significantly. As a result, although the price of acrylonitrile has shown an upward trend, the increase is still lower than that of the raw materials, leading to a gradual worsening of single-product production losses. According to statistics, as of October 8, the mainstream closing price of propylene in Shandong was 9,980-10,170 yuan/ton, with an average of 10,075 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 12,699 yuan/ton, up 3.80% month-on-month. During the same period, the average production profit of acrylonitrile was -1,598 yuan/ton, down 465 yuan/ton month-on-month.
Posterior Forecast: The cost pressure persists, with suppliers maintaining firm prices and spot prices rising. The acrylonitrile industry’s capacity utilization rate remains at 73.7%. This market rebound is primarily driven by cost factors, as producers face worsening losses and strong price-holding intentions. However, there is no significant near-term demand growth expected, particularly as the ABS industry continues to operate at low loads. The supply-demand imbalance remains weak, which will still constrain the market’s rebound potential. Supply-side developments warrant close attention.

On October 10, 2026, the domestic market price reference for silicon metal # 441 was 9510 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 10 yuan/ton or 0.11% compared to October 1 (market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9500 yuan/ton).
1、 Trend analysis
Returning from the National Day holiday, the domestic market for metal silicon 441 # is experiencing an overall upward trend. The market situation of metal silicon 441 # is running steadily with small increases. The market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 9500-9600 yuan/ton, the market price reference for monitoring unit 441 # in Kunming is 9500-9700 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 50 yuan/ton, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Huangpu Port is 9500-9600 yuan/ton, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Tianjin is 9400-9500 yuan/ton, the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan is 9100-9200 yuan/ton, and the market price reference for metal silicon 441 # in Sichuan is 9700-9900 yuan/ton.
Fundamental situation
In terms of raw materials: After the holiday, the domestic silica market has shown stable operation. The overall supply of silica mines is relatively loose, and downstream purchases are made according to demand. The overall supply and demand situation is basically stable. The ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Hubei Province remains around 310-350 yuan/ton, while the ex factory price of high-grade silica ore in Inner Mongolia is around 290-330 yuan/ton.
In terms of production: In September 2026, the domestic production of metallic silicon was about 317000 tons, a decrease of about 11% compared to the previous month. In September, the market showed a parallel trend of silicon enterprises starting production and increasing production. In October, it is expected that the release of production capacity in the northern region will continue to coexist with the reduction of production in the southwestern region. In October, it is expected that the domestic production of metallic silicon will increase slightly compared to the previous month, and downstream customers will continue to pick up goods one after another. It is expected that the market will have a slight destocking.
In terms of supply and demand: As we enter October and the beginning of the month, downstream demand continues to be mainly driven by rigid procurement. The supply pressure of spot silicon metal is not significant, and the quotes of holders are generally stable but slightly firm. The overall transmission of supply and demand is still good.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the silicon metal market is mild, and there is a certain degree of wait-and-see sentiment in the market after the holiday. The overall destocking situation in the market in September is still good, and the mentality of industry players is good. Data analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic silicon metal market will mainly fluctuate and operate strongly, and specific attention needs to be paid to the resumption of production in some areas and downstream construction.

1、 Market Overview

This week, the domestic melamine market as a whole showed a trend of “high-level sideways movement and narrow range oscillation”. As of October 9th, the benchmark price of melamine was reported at 6325.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the price at the beginning of this week (October 2nd), with a fluctuation of 0.00%.
From the price trend, since October 2nd, the price of melamine has remained stable at 6325.00 yuan/ton, without any significant fluctuations. This extreme stability reflects the current balance of power between long and short sides in the market, with average trading activity and both upstream and downstream companies in a cautious wait-and-see state.
2、 Cost side: urea prices slightly decrease
As the main upstream raw material of melamine, the price fluctuation of urea directly affects the cost support of melamine.
As of October 9th, the benchmark price of urea in Shengyi Society was 1777.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14% compared to the beginning of this month (1780.00 yuan/ton).
The weak consolidation of urea prices has slightly weakened the cost side support for melamine, but the decline is minimal (only 2.5 yuan/ton), which is not enough to have a substantial impact on the high price of melamine. The current strong price of melamine is more due to its own supply and demand pattern or the downstream board industry’s strong demand support, rather than simply cost push.
3、 Future forecast
Overall, the melamine market is in a game stage of “strong reality, weak expectations” in the short term.
Short term trend: Given the bullish positioning of the moving average system and the stability of prices, it is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate and consolidate in the range of 6300-6350 yuan/ton at the beginning of next week. As long as the 10 day moving average does not fall below the 20 day moving average (i.e. the moving average does not turn negative), the upward trend has not been disrupted.

Entering September, the domestic PP market first surged and then consolidated, with overall prices of various brand products rising. As of September 30th, the benchmark price for PP wire drawing was quoted at 9933.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.09% compared to the beginning of the month.
price trend

In terms of raw materials:
The situation in the Middle East was turbulent in the first half of September, and the ceasefire agreement was difficult to implement, which pushed up international crude oil prices. In the second half of the month, the Iranian President went to the United States to attend a meeting. US President Trump publicly expressed his willingness to meet with the Iranian President. At the same time, Iran has conveyed clear conditions to the mediator to restart negotiations. Multiple signals mark a substantial diplomatic breakthrough in the ongoing US Iran confrontation. The focus of market trading has shifted from “supply interruption panic” to “situation cooling and supply recovery”. The shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz have decreased, and market concerns about international crude oil supply have eased. Geopolitical premiums have been reduced, and PP’s remote cost value has fallen at a high level. At the same time, there was a significant high-level decline in propylene, and overall, the raw material support for PP in September was initially strong before rebounding.
Supply side:
Entering September, domestic PP enterprises are experiencing a mutual occurrence of maintenance and restart. The overall operating rate in the first half of the month was close to 70%, which was relatively stable compared to the previous period. As the end of the month approaches, companies are gradually entering maintenance plans, and the industry load during and after the long holiday is estimated to be around 65%. The current weekly average production is less than 700000 tons, and the inventory position continues to decline, resulting in less than 490000 tons being at a low level. Overall, the slow recovery of supply and low inventory levels have provided some support for spot prices, and the supply side’s support for spot prices is still acceptable.
In terms of demand:
In September, polypropylene consumption was in the traditional peak season, and demand gradually moved out of the off-season, with downstream markets in the industry slowly following suit. However, due to the off-season situation on the cost side in the early stage, coupled with the fact that PP spot prices have risen to a high level, buyers’ acceptance of high priced goods is insufficient, and the overall trading atmosphere is cautious. The terminal enterprise strategy tends to be on-demand, with mostly scattered small orders and poor enthusiasm for building warehouses on site, resulting in generally low inventory levels. The operating rate of small and medium-sized enterprises has slightly improved, with downstream loads at around 45% at the end of the month, and overall demand side support for PP.
Future forecast
In September, the domestic PP market prices surged and then stabilized. From a fundamental perspective, the cost side rose and then fell, while the demand side saw a moderate increase in pre holiday stocking of orders. Currently, stocking has ended, and downstream operations have returned to caution. Analysts believe that the current demand in the PP market is limited, and the cost value is falling back. However, the contraction of the supply side has a certain boost to prices, and it is expected that the PP market will enter a stalemate in the future.

The traditional “Golden September” peak season expectation for electrolytic manganese in China in September has not been fulfilled, and the overall market is showing a trend of stable but weak operation. The market lacks sufficient upward momentum, and the atmosphere of upstream and downstream games is strong. The price focus is slowly shifting downwards month by month, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak. The industry as a whole maintains a weak balance pattern.
In terms of manganese ore, the overall operation of the manganese ore end is relatively strong, with particularly outstanding performance at the port level. In terms of the main northern port Tianjin Port, the spot inventory in the port continues to be depleted, and the trends of different minerals have shown differentiation: the supply of South African semi carbonate blocks in the port is relatively tight, and traders have a strong mentality of raising prices, making it difficult for the price center to go up and down; The Australian dollar was driven by the increase in foreign market quotes, and port quotes followed suit with a slight increase in foreign market quotes, steadily raising the focus of transactions; Gabonese blocks, on the other hand, have maintained a strong spot price due to a slower pace of arrival at the port in the early stages and limited available resources for sale in the port. The overall situation of northern ports presents a two-way support pattern of “low inventory+external prices rising”, with weak willingness of traders to ship at low prices and gradually tilting bargaining power towards sellers.
The trend of Qinzhou Port in the south is stronger. Guangxi, as one of the core production areas for electrolytic manganese in China, continues to have a strong demand for imported manganese ore from surrounding smelters. The inventory in the port has significantly decreased due to the contraction of the previous arrival volume. In terms of mineral structure, Australian seeds have shown the strongest performance, and the price of high-grade Australian blocks remains high. South African semi carbonate has also increased synchronously with the tightening of inventory. Comparing ports in the north and south, ports in the south are closer to the main consumer areas, have more thorough inventory depletion, and have slightly stronger mineral prices than those in the north, resulting in a narrowing of the price difference between the north and south.
Supply side: The overall trend of active production control and low inventory operation continues in the main production areas of electrolytic manganese in China. The core smelting enterprises of Yunnan, Guizhou, Hunan, and Guangxi continue to control the pace of capacity release. In the current market situation, most manufacturers are close to the profit and loss threshold, and their willingness to significantly increase production is weak. The overall supply of spot goods in the market is not sufficient, and the inventory of finished products in factories remains in a low range. The sentiment of merchants being reluctant to sell at low prices has existed for a long time. In terms of export diversion, the trend of overseas demand recovery is limited, and the pace of downstream overseas procurement is stable, without the phenomenon of concentrated large-scale procurement. The diversion and driving effect of external demand on domestic spot goods is weak, which cannot effectively alleviate the pressure of domestic spot supply. The overall supply side has price support, but it can only limit a significant and rapid decline in prices, making it difficult to drive the market to reverse and strengthen.
Demand side: The demand side is the core drag factor in the market this month, and the weak trend of rigid demand procurement and no centralized replenishment is maintained throughout the downstream. As the core consumer sector of electrolytic manganese, the downstream of stainless steel continues to accumulate finished product inventory in steel mills, and the process of enterprise profit recovery is slow. The raw material procurement strategy is conservative, always maintaining a on-demand procurement mode. The monthly steel bidding price continues to decrease, and the trend of price suppression on the procurement side is obvious, greatly suppressing the upstream quotation space. Although the downstream market of lithium manganese oxide batteries has stabilized and stopped falling, the production of terminal 3C and small power cells continues to be sluggish, and the increase in raw material procurement by material factories is insufficient, which has a weak driving force on the demand for metallic manganese. The entire market shows a characteristic of moderate inquiry activity and low actual transactions, with a phenomenon of having prices but no market throughout the month. Weak terminal demand is the core logic that suppresses the upward trend of manganese prices.

The steel bidding for mainstream steel mills in September has basically been implemented, and the bidding pricing has increased month on month, but the purchasing volume of most steel mills has contracted month on month. Small and medium-sized steel mills refer to the mainstream steel procurement results and maintain overall rigid demand procurement. As the Double Festival holiday approaches, the concentrated inventory replenishment before the holiday falls short of market expectations. The steel mills themselves have weak steel profitability, limited acceptance of high spot prices, and weak willingness to chase high prices and purchase goods, mainly relying on consuming their own inventory.
Market forecast: At the cost level, the downward trend of auxiliary materials has not yet ended. Although manganese ore (including spot goods at ports) remains strong, there is a time lag in the transmission of rising ore prices to the cost of electrolytic manganese smelting. Currently, the profits of smelting enterprises have been compressed to near the profit and loss line, and the acceptance of high priced ores is limited. The overall cost support is still weak; Low inventory and production control on the supply side can only form a temporary buffer. Without large-scale unified production reduction actions, it is difficult to reverse the weak market; There is currently no clear signal of recovery in the downstream of stainless steel and lithium batteries on the demand side, and there has been no improvement in terminal orders. The trend of purchasing price suppression will continue.
The key to market differentiation depends on two variables: one is whether the industry has implemented unified production restrictions and control measures. If the reduction in production is implemented, the market may stop falling and enter a narrow range of fluctuations; The second is whether downstream terminal construction can continue to rebound and drive centralized replenishment. In addition, the arrival rhythm of manganese ore at the port and the trend of external quotations in the later stage also need to be continuously tracked. If the port inventory further tightens and pushes up the ore price, it may reverse and force the electrolytic manganese price to gain support from the cost side. If the above benefits are not realized, the price of electrolytic manganese will continue to show a weak downward trend.

In September 2026, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with an overall upward trend. The monthly market continued the previous recovery trend, and the overall price center steadily rose. The average price of antimony ingots in the market at the beginning of this month was 102000 yuan/ton. After a temporary surge in the market during the month, it slightly fell back and adjusted. The average price at the end of the month closed at 104250 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 2.21% during the month.
Looking at the market throughout the month, the core logic of the market revolves around the game of supply and demand. The tightening of raw material supply provides a solid bottom support for the market, driving prices to rise in stages. However, the insufficient release of downstream demand during peak seasons has led to pressure and fluctuations in the high price range, ultimately resulting in a slight increase.
Supply side:
In September, the overall supply of antimony ingots in China remained tight, which became the core positive factor supporting the overall upward trend of antimony prices this month. The ban on the export of overseas antimony ore continues to take effect, significantly reducing the supplementary channels for domestic imported ore sources. Coupled with the continued strict control of domestic antimony mining quotas, the circulation of antimony concentrate in the market has always been in a tight balance. Affected by high raw material prices, domestic smelting enterprises are under pressure in terms of production costs and limited profit margins. The overall operating load remains low, and the spot supply of antimony ingots in the market has been reduced. At the same time, the industry’s social inventory has been at a low level after long-term consumption, and traders have a strong mentality of selling at low prices. The buffer space for spot circulation is insufficient, and the tight supply fundamentals throughout the month effectively support the price of antimony ingots, supporting the overall rise of the monthly market.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. In September, we entered the traditional gold nine consumption cycle downstream of antimony, with demand support mainly coming from two major sectors: antimony trioxide and photovoltaic glass. However, the procurement pace in these two areas is differentiated, and the overall volume increase is relatively weak.
Antimony oxide: As the largest downstream of antimony ingots, antimony oxide has seen seasonal production in the traditional plastic and flame retardant product industries. The market price of antimony trioxide has risen in sync with antimony ingots, and there has been a stable flow of demand orders in the market. However, the continuous price increase of antimony ingots continues to squeeze the profits of flame retardant processing enterprises. Downstream factories avoid the risk of high prices and only maintain a small amount of replenishment according to demand. Large scale hoarding behavior is rare, and the driving force for antimony prices is limited.
Photovoltaics: As the core incremental track of antimony ingots, the photovoltaic glass sector has long had stable and rigid procurement demand, and the industry’s production has maintained normal operation, continuously consuming antimony ingot inventory to form a foundation for bottoming out. However, this month, the pace of bidding for photovoltaic terminal projects has slowed down, glass factory finished product inventory has accumulated, and enterprises have strictly controlled raw material procurement costs, only carrying out daily production needs to obtain goods, without carrying out pre holiday centralized replenishment. Both downstream markets lack sustained momentum to increase production, which directly leads to a lack of support and a pullback in antimony prices after a surge.
Market forecast:

In the short term, the domestic antimony ingot market will maintain a high volatility pattern, and it is difficult to realize the significant fluctuations in the market on one side. The current situation of tight balance on the supply side cannot be improved in the short term. The contraction of overseas mineral supply, strict control over domestic antimony mining, low inventory in the industry, and the reluctance of smelters to sell and raise prices continue to support the bottom market. The space for antimony prices to significantly decline is basically closed. The key to whether the subsequent prices can strengthen again depends on the pace of replenishing inventory in the downstream of antimony oxide and photovoltaics. If the end orders of the flame retardant industry are released in a concentrated manner, antimony oxide manufacturers increase raw material procurement, or photovoltaic glass enterprises enter a centralized stocking cycle, antimony ingot prices are expected to test the upper high again; If the two downstream markets continue to maintain sporadic purchases on demand and there is no concentrated increase in demand, the market situation will continue to narrow sideways. In the medium to long term, there are rigid constraints on the global supply of antimony raw materials, and the long-term expansion of the photovoltaic industry brings stable incremental demand. The central price of antimony ingots in the market still has a long-term trend of gradually rising.

As of September 24, 2026, the gold spot market price was 926.57 yuan/gram, a decrease of 3.50% yuan/gram from the gold spot market price of 960.20 yuan/gram at the beginning of this month.
On September 24th, the price of gold continued to decline, and in terms of spot trading:
On September 24, 2026, the benchmark price of Shanghai Gold Exchange in the afternoon session was 924.45 yuan/gram, down 3.82 yuan/gram from the earlier benchmark price of 928.27 yuan/gram; Compared to the benchmark price of 935.50 yuan/gram in the afternoon session of the previous trading day, it decreased by 11.05 yuan/gram.
Reasons for the downward movement of precious metal prices in September
1. The Federal Reserve’s policy expectation shifts towards an increase in real interest rates
The resilience of August CPI, PPI, and non farm payroll data in the United States exceeded expectations, and inflation fell short of expectations; Officials at the Jackson Hole annual meeting are hawkish, and the market has significantly lowered expectations for interest rate cuts, even pricing a 25bp rate hike in September. The nominal yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds has exceeded 5%, and the real interest rate has significantly risen.
Gold is an interest free asset, and an increase in real interest rates means an increase in the opportunity cost of holding gold, which directly suppresses valuation;
The US dollar index strengthened synchronously, causing gold and silver priced in US dollars to become more expensive for overseas buyers, triggering long positions to be reduced.
In September, the Federal Reserve implemented a rate hike followed by a hawkish dot matrix, indicating that high interest rates will be maintained for a longer period of time. It is expected that after the complete implementation, precious metals will be further under pressure.
2. In the early stage, the geopolitical hedging premium was concentrated and sold back
The significant increase in gold prices in August was largely due to the safe haven premium caused by the Middle East conflict; In September, the United States and Iran released signals of easing negotiations, and there were no substantial shipping blockades in the Strait of Hormuz, and the conflict did not escalate further.
Withdrawing safe haven funds from gold and returning risky assets;
In the early stage of the game, speculative long positions were concentrated to close out geopolitical risks, amplifying the magnitude of the pullback (which is the same macro mainline as the disappearance of the geopolitical premium of ethylene glycol).
3. At the financial level: ETFs and futures long positions reduce positions, leading to a downward trend
Global gold ETFs have shifted from continuous inflows to net outflows of funds;
COMEX futures speculation saw a significant reduction in long positions at high levels, triggering a large number of stop loss orders and accelerating price declines.
4. Silver has experienced a significant decline compared to gold
Silver combines both precious metal and industrial properties, and is under additional pressure in addition to macro bearish sentiment
(1) The global manufacturing industry is expected to be weak, and the demand for silver industry in the chemical, photovoltaic, and electronic sectors is expected to be lowered;
(2) Silver speculation accounts for a higher proportion, and its volatility is naturally greater than that of gold, resulting in a stronger downward trend under macro bearish conditions.
5. Physical demand side: high prices suppress consumer buying
After the gold price surged in August, consumption of gold and silver jewelry and retail gold bars remained cautious, and stocking up for Indian holidays was delayed, resulting in a lack of support for physical buying; Although the central bank continues to maintain net purchases, it is a slow variable that cannot withstand macroeconomic interest rate shocks in the short term.
Gold price forecast for the future
Short term volatility is weak: US Treasury real interest rates and the US dollar remain dominant, and without new Middle Eastern black swans, precious metals are likely to experience weak volatility; If US inflation falls again and expectations of interest rate cuts rebound, there will be a chance for a rebound.
The medium to long-term upward trend has not been disrupted: the central bank’s continued gold purchases are still the underlying support, and this round is more inclined towards a pullback in the bull market, not a trend reversal.