Market Overview: Recently, with the easing of the external situation, the prices of major energy products such as crude oil and propylene have continued to decline. However, acrylonitrile products stand out among them, with prices rising against the trend. This round of acrylonitrile price increase is mainly driven by favorable fundamentals – supply reduction combined with concentrated export shipments, resulting in tight spot resources, especially in the Shandong region where spot resources are tight and factory inventories are low. Under the tight supply of local spot resources, we are following up on demand buying, and overall supplier quotes are pushing up, with market quotes continuing to rise.
Supply side:
During the week, there were no fluctuations in the equipment, and major factories maintained low load operation. Currently, the overall capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry is less than 70%. According to statistics, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories this week (June 12-18) was 66.67%, unchanged from the previous cycle; The weekly output is about 77800 tons, which is the same as the previous cycle. The supply level remained low during the week, and at the same time, there was a significant decrease in inventory for some companies due to the follow-up of demand buying. According to statistics, as of June 17th, the total inventory was about 40000 tons, an increase of -60000 tons from last week.
Demand side:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 58.1%, unchanged from last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 83.54%, an increase of 9.54% compared to last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 52.62%, which was -0.66% compared to last week. Overall, there has been an increase in demand.
Cost aspect:
During the week, while the price of acrylonitrile rose rapidly, the price of its main raw material propylene also experienced a wide decline, resulting in a simultaneous weakening of cost support. Currently, the theoretical production profit of acrylonitrile has turned losses into profits. According to statistics, as of June 18th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 7300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1550 yuan/ton from last week’s 8850 yuan/ton. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 10396 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of 6.81%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was 315 yuan/ton, a month on month increase of 1220 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, although the cost of raw materials has decreased, the current fundamental changes dominate the price trend. The inventory of various enterprises is still low, and manufacturers still have the conditions to raise prices. In addition, the demand for essential goods is still following suit. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will remain strong in the short term, but the theoretical production profit will be restored, which may lead to further changes in the planned equipment load reduction or parking situation. The upward space may continue to narrow.

Supply side: Multiple contractions form a ‘perfect storm’
Myanmar is the most important source of heavy rare earths in the world, accounting for about 57% of China’s total rare earth imports. Since 2026, Myanmar’s mineral imports have plummeted by 42% year-on-year. Some ports have restricted customs clearance, directly cutting off the supply of key medium and heavy rare earth raw materials. At the same time, Vietnam has legislated to ban the export of rare earth ore since that year, further cutting off external supplementary channels. The second batch of rare earth mining indicators in 2026 will significantly decrease by 19% compared to the second batch in 2025, shifting from an increase to a decrease. The quota for mining medium and heavy rare earths has maintained zero growth for several consecutive years. In addition, the market originally expected that recycling rare earths could increase supply, but some recycling companies were unable to obtain complete legal certificates for their waste sources, resulting in unsold products and even forced production cuts and shutdowns. The supply of recycled rare earths did not increase as scheduled, and the heavy rare earth market rose.
Policy side: Rising strategic position, reshaping pricing logic
On June 15th, the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law of the People’s Republic of China officially came into effect, and 36 key minerals including rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, gallium, germanium, etc. were officially included in the national strategic mineral resources catalog. This marks the official shift of rare earth pricing from cyclical products to a “strategic resource+policy constraint” driven logic, with national policies benefiting the domestic rare earth market.
Demand side: Double click between AI and new energy, increasing demand
Dysprosium oxide is the core raw material of multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC). According to estimates, the combination of AI servers and MLCC for new energy vehicles will bring an additional demand for 1500 tons of dysprosium in 2027, while the global annual supply is only about 3500 tons, and 90% of the production capacity is controlled by China. Japanese MLCC giant Murata has only 30 days of dysprosium inventory left, and production stoppage in July and August is a high probability event. The supply-demand gap has just been torn apart, and the price elasticity is huge. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has exceeded 55%, and the demand for permanent magnet motors has rigidly increased. In addition, due to policy driven energy efficiency standards for wind power and industrial motors, the penetration rate of rare earth permanent magnet motors continues to rise, leading to an improvement in demand and a rise in the heavy rare earth market.
Market forecast: Starting from 2026, the global supply and demand gap for rare earths may continue to widen, and rare earth prices are expected to remain stable with some progress; In addition, the price of heavy rare earths has shown a significant downward trend, and the price center continues to rise. Since June, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have risen, with prices of dysprosium oxide, dysprosium ferroalloy, and dysprosium metal all showing an upward trend. As of the 17th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 1.415 million yuan/ton, an increase of 10.98%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 1.37 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10.93%; The price of dysprosium metal is 1.945 million yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 9.53%.

The crude oil market experienced a significant decline on Monday, June 15th, with the prices of the two main crude oil futures plummeting simultaneously. The settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $80.75 per barrel, a decrease of $4.13 or 4.9%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for August was $83.17 per barrel, a decrease of $4.16 or 4.8%. Continuing the downward trend from last Friday, it hit a new low in three months. Due to the substantial easing of the geopolitical situation between the United States and Iran, the two sides have reached a memorandum of understanding, and the expectation that the Strait of Hormuz is expected to resume navigation has led to a rapid disappearance of the risk premium supporting oil prices. However, in terms of fundamentals, a short-term pullback does not mean that the energy supply crisis is completely resolved, and the medium and long-term trend of oil prices still faces multiple games and uncertainties.
In terms of supply, PTA production has fluctuated and rebounded, with current PTA production increasing to around 68%, indicating an increase in market supply. With the restart of some maintenance equipment, the PTA inventory reduction in June has narrowed, and inventory reduction will continue in July.
In terms of demand, downstream polyester filament and short fiber manufacturers continue to reduce production to maintain prices, while there are signs of improvement in weaving end procurement and sales. The production of Jiangsu and Zhejiang elastic looms has increased for two consecutive weeks. Although the current situation of weak terminal demand has not changed, the raw material inventory of weaving enterprises is at a historical low, and there is an expectation of replenishment. But the foreign trade orders are weak, and the expectations for textile and clothing exports from Europe and America are average. Therefore, there is a strong wait-and-see attitude, making it difficult to have sustained purchasing pull.
Analysts believe that the short-term cost center has shifted downward, with no significant improvement in demand during the off-season, and prices are still adjusting weakly with fluctuations.

Fundamental analysis
Supply level: As we enter June, the equipment load of the domestic ABS industry has decreased at a low level, and the overall operating rate within the range has slightly dropped to around 58%. The current weekly average production is less than 125000 tons. At the same time, the inventory of finished products has not decreased but increased, currently approaching around 230000 tons. The shipment situation of the aggregation plant remained sluggish within half a month, and the short-term production trend in the future was stable with a small increase. Overall, the ABS supply side provided sufficient support for spot prices in the first half of June.
Cost factor: Since June, there have been frequent reports of preliminary peace agreements between the United States and Iran in the Middle East. As the middle of the month approaches, high-level officials from both sides are intensively releasing positive signals. Although it will take some time for shipping in the Strait of Hormuz to resume, the market predicts that the Middle East conflict is easing and oil prices are once again plummeting. Affected by it, the cost value of the upstream three materials of ABS, which belong to the petrochemical chain, has been dragged. The cost value of acrylonitrile has decreased, and downstream consumption is weak. However, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has once again declined, and the supply side continues to shrink. Low price spot resources on the market are also gradually being digested. The buying trend in the spot market has been followed up, and prices have stopped falling and stabilized, reaching a temporary bottom. However, without positive guidance, the rebound momentum is still insufficient.
The domestic butadiene market experienced a decline after consolidation in the first half of June. Although some companies have fulfilled their maintenance obligations, downstream end products have poor profits and there is a lack of inventory expansion operations. Butadiene is also dragged by the current market trend of synthetic rubber, and it is expected that the butadiene market will continue to consolidate at a low level.
For the past half month, the styrene market has continued to decline. From the perspective of raw materials, although the decline of pure benzene has slowed down compared to the end of May, it still maintains a negative trend. However, the domestic supply of goods has shifted from tight to balanced, and coupled with the lack of effective driving force for styrene consumption, the market lacks upward momentum. In the second half of the month, there are plans to restart multiple sets of styrene plants in China. In the medium to long term, the supply and demand of styrene will weaken and prices will be under pressure.
On the demand side: In the first half of June, there were limited changes in the start-up situation of downstream ABS enterprises. The main terminal appliance industry has officially entered the off-season, with poor consumption of appliance casings and no improvement in the profitability of terminal enterprises. The atmosphere inside the venue is buying up instead of buying down, and there has been a significant reduction in replenishing and building positions. However, merchants engage in low price buyback operations, while the buyer camp has a high resistance to high priced goods. Overall, the demand side has poor support for the ABS market.
Future forecast
In the first half of June, the domestic ABS market continued to decline. The production load of the aggregation plant has fluctuated narrowly at a low level, but inventory has accumulated and the on-site supply remains within a sufficient range. The overall trend of cost and material is weak. The current supply-demand contradiction of ABS is still prominent, with a loose focus on spot prices and relatively quiet trading on the market.

This week, copper prices first fell and then rose. As of June 12th, copper prices were reported at 104683.33 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the beginning of the week and up 32.34% year-on-year.
In the past three months, copper prices have fallen three times and risen nine times, with a slight increase this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 367300 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 2.5% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the US PPI surged to 6.5% year-on-year in May (with a core PPI of 4.9%), completely reversing the market’s fantasy of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates this year and even triggering interest rate bets. However, the dramatic reversal of the “dawn of peace” in the Middle East geopolitical situation quickly reshaped the market’s risk appetite. The weakening of the US dollar, the increasing expectation of interest rate cuts, and the easing of the geopolitical situation have all contributed to the concentrated realization of the triple positive. Market risk appetite has sharply increased, and funds are running into the market to purchase goods.
Supply side: The shortage in the mining sector has not changed, and the domestic spot TC index has dropped to below -110 US dollars per dry ton. Coupled with the global “acid shortage” suppressing the production capacity of wet copper smelting, the supply rigidity has become prominent.
On the demand side: Although the current market is in a hot and off-season (with a slowdown in outdoor infrastructure and weak new terminal orders), the high momentum of new energy vehicle production and sales, as well as the structural increment brought by AI data centers, have built a solid bottom for copper prices. Copper prices have fallen to around 103000 yuan, stimulating downstream inventory replenishment and accelerating the depletion of copper inventories. This week, spot premiums have continued to widen slightly (Changjiang 1 # copper reported 103770 yuan/ton, with a premium of 100-140 yuan), confirming that “where there is ore, there is buying”. High priced goods (>105000 yuan) are still difficult to stock up, and downstream consumers generally “buy low and not chase high”.
In summary, the copper market has recently shown a pattern of multiple intertwined factors. On a macro level, although the high PPI data in the United States once raised concerns about tightening, the easing of the situation in the Middle East, the weakening of the US dollar, and the resurgence of expectations of interest rate cuts have collectively boosted market sentiment, and the willingness of funds to enter the market has significantly increased. The supply side is still tight, and the deep negative value of ore processing fees reflects the shortage of mineral resources. Coupled with the global acid shortage, which inhibits wet copper smelting, the supply elasticity is extremely low. In terms of demand, although it is in the traditional off-season with a slowdown in outdoor construction and few new orders, new energy vehicles and AI data centers continue to bring structural growth, providing bottom support for copper prices. After the copper price dropped to around 103000 yuan per ton, downstream companies took the opportunity to replenish inventory, leading to a rapid decline in inventory and an expansion of spot premiums; However, once the price rises above 105000 yuan, downstream consumers are generally watching and unwilling to chase higher prices. Overall, copper prices have strong support below, but the upward potential is limited by high prices suppressing demand.

The expected resumption of production of recycled lead has created pressure on supply growth: as of June 4th, the operating rate of recycled lead has been rising for four consecutive weeks, while the operating rate of downstream lead-acid batteries has been declining against the trend, forming a typical supply-demand mismatch of one rise and one fall.
The shortage of raw material supply provides cost support. Lead ore processing fees continue to decline, with domestic and imported processing fees decreasing weekly, and processing fees remaining in the negative range, forming rigid cost support for lead prices. Although the price of waste batteries has slightly fallen, it is still at a high level. With the expansion of losses for recycled lead enterprises, refineries are reluctant to sell at low prices, which has a bottoming effect on lead prices and limits the potential for deep price declines.
demand side
Downstream ‘buy up, not buy down’: The finished inventory of battery companies is at a relatively high level, and the pace of raw material procurement is slowing down, making it difficult to form an effective driving force for lead prices. Although there is some support for the demand in the energy storage field, the overall volume is limited, making it difficult to offset the seasonal decline in traditional demand.
Inventory end
LME lead inventory has reached a temporary high after consecutive large deliveries, with a cumulative decrease of 3650 tons in the past week, showing a trend of destocking. There is still a shortage of high-quality lead ingots in Southeast Asia, and spot lead maintains premium trading. However, there was a signal of accumulated lead inventory in the previous period; As the delivery date approaches, implicit inventory turns into explicit inventory, further highlighting the pressure of accumulated inventory. The intertwining of long and short signals of a decrease and an increase in dual reserves indicates that overall, the loose supply and demand pattern in China has not fundamentally changed.
Overall summary
In the short term, lead prices are facing multiple pressures, but there are strong cost support barriers around Wan Liu. The short-term swing indicator has entered the oversold zone, and the random indicator may have a bottom deviation, and a technical rebound is imminent. But the rebound requires the ability to match the quantity. If the rebound is not substantial, it will still be a continuation of the decline. In the mid-term, there is usually a 3-5 week inertia decline or low-level oscillation. The core operating range is expected to be between 15800-16400 yuan/ton, with 16000 yuan below being an important psychological barrier and technical support level.

price trend
In terms of raw materials:
In early June, high-level peace talks between the United States and Iran in the Middle East were deadlocked, with divergent attitudes. The fluctuation of premium within the range has put pressure on the demand side, causing the market to rise first and then fall, which has limited support for the far end cost value of PP. The demand for propylene in the market remains stable, but last month, the restart of enterprise facilities and increased supply suppressed spot prices, resulting in a continuation of the recent correction trend. Overall, the PP raw material market is fluctuating, providing moderate support for PP costs.
Supply side:
In early June, some domestic PP companies still had some maintenance plans implemented, and the overall operating rate decreased at a low level. As of the time of writing, the overall load of the domestic industry is about 65%, and the weekly output is less than 680000 tons. The current inventory position is around 600000 tons, and the overall supply performance remains tight. Overall, the supply side has sufficient support for spot prices.
In terms of demand:
The current consumption of polypropylene is gradually entering the off-season level, and the downstream market of the industry remains resistant to high prices, resulting in a cautious overall trading atmosphere. The buyer camp picks up goods on demand, and the warehouse building operation is average, often with scattered small orders that can be picked up as needed. Meanwhile, due to the high cost pressure, the improvement in operating rates of small and micro end enterprises is limited, while large and medium-sized enterprises continue to stabilize and acquire goods. The demand side is generally in a wait-and-see situation, with average support for PP.
Future forecast
In early June, the domestic PP market prices remained stable with a slight increase. Fundamentally speaking, the industry load remained low in June, with limited changes in port imports and limited availability of spot resources in the market. The cost side is fluctuating, while the demand side is entering the off-season market, making it difficult to increase volume in the short term. Business Society PP analysts believe that the current PP market is weak in both supply and demand, and the upward momentum in the future is hindered. The magnitude of this increase may not be significant.

In early June, the domestic PC market experienced a significant decline, with spot prices of various brands experiencing a significant drop. As of June 9th, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC was around 14633.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.73% from the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In June, the operating rate of domestic PC aggregation enterprises rebounded from a low level. Cohen Chuang has recently resumed work, and Luxi Chemical has increased the load of three facilities, with the industry load rising to over 65%. And there are still plans to restart multiple aggregation plants in the future, with production losses gradually shrinking. Currently, the weekly average production is close to 60000 tons, and the smoothness of aggregation plant shipments has declined, leading to a loosening of the willingness to raise prices. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is showing a trend of weakening.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market stabilized after a decline in early June. International crude oil has experienced severe fluctuations, with raw materials acetone and phenol showing mixed ups and downs. On the other hand, after a decline from the end of last month to the beginning of this month, the spot price of bisphenol A has reached a temporary low. At the same time, with limited supply changes and weak demand, the market has entered a stalemate, and overall support for PC cost values is weak.
On the demand side: The sales situation of PC downstream factories is gradually entering the off-season, and the demand for sheet metal shells is weakening, resulting in low load levels for end enterprises. The current PC prices are falling at a high level, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The buyer is cautious in stocking up and has poor willingness to build a warehouse. The liquidity of the supply of goods has slowed down, and merchants’ offers have followed the market trend, resulting in an increase in profit sharing and order taking operations. The low-priced source of goods in the market needs to be digested, which creates a drag on the pricing focus of the aggregation factory. Overall, the demand side has poor support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
The domestic PC market experienced a sharp decline in early June. The price of upstream bisphenol A has stabilized after falling, and the cost value is difficult to support PC. The load of domestic PC aggregation plants has been raised at a low level, and there are still expectations of relaxed supply in the future. On site trading is dominated by weak demand, with buyers chasing after gains and killing losses. Stocking is cautious, and trading is mainly focused on small orders. At present, the supply and demand of PC are weak, and the market orientation is relatively negative. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term