Supply side:
Domestic antimony smelting enterprises have gradually started production reduction operations as market prices continue to decline, but the overall production reduction efforts are weak, and the overall contraction effect of spot supply in the market is not significant, making it difficult to offset the pressure brought by weak market demand. In terms of raw materials, the import volume of antimony concentrate in China was relatively concentrated in the first half of the year. At present, the import source is gradually decreasing. In addition, Myanmar’s main production areas are entering the rainy season, and local production may decrease. The amount of antimony raw materials arriving at ports in Southeast Asia is gradually decreasing. In the long run, there is an expectation of tightening raw material supply. But at present, there are many low-priced goods circulating in overseas markets, which has dragged down the sentiment of the domestic market.
Demand side:
Flame retardant materials account for about 55% of the traditional downstream demand for antimony, while glass accounts for about 15%. Antimony is an essential element in photovoltaic glass production and cannot be replaced. With the continuous development of China’s photovoltaic industry, the main increment of antimony metal in the future will be in the photovoltaic field. The current downstream market is in a low season of consumption, and many overseas countries are gradually entering the summer break period. The demand for overseas terminal consumption has entered a temporary trough, directly dragging down the overall volume of export orders. The purchasing mentality of downstream industries in China tends to be cautious and conservative, maintaining the supply of essential goods, and the overall market demand is weak.
Antimony oxide: Currently, the downstream market for antimony oxide is overall weak, and the off-season effect is prominent. Overseas terminal demand is experiencing a phased decline, with a significant decrease in foreign trade orders and weak performance in the export market. The market trend of domestic flame retardant sub sectors is differentiated, and downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see attitude. Their procurement behavior is highly cautious, and they only maintain small quantities of essential goods. The activity of on-site transactions continues to be low, making it difficult to form effective support for upstream antimony prices.
Photovoltaic: The demand for photovoltaic glass industry is weakening synchronously, the overall operating load in China continues to decline, the demand increment in overseas markets is insufficient, the export support is weak, and the overall production and sales pressure of the industry is relatively high. The procurement volume of antimony products continues to decrease, and the overall support on the demand side is insufficient.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the market lacks substantial positive momentum, and there is still room for antimony prices to decline in late July. In the medium to long term, as the rainy season in Myanmar continues to affect fermentation, the benefits of reduced raw material imports are gradually released. Coupled with the approaching traditional consumption peak season downstream, the market is expected to gradually bottom out and stabilize. In the future, the focus will be on the quantity of antimony raw materials arriving at ports, changes in photovoltaic industry operation, and the overall pace of downstream inventory replenishment.

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to monitoring, the price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market has decreased this week. The average price of titanium dioxide at the beginning of the week was 16460 yuan/ton, and the average price of titanium dioxide at the weekend was 16240 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.34%.
2、 Market analysis
This week, the domestic titanium dioxide market prices have been lowered. The price of titanium concentrate in the upstream market has slightly decreased, while the demand in the downstream market is light, and the purchasing enthusiasm is not high. The market sentiment is not good, with a focus on wait-and-see measures. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 14600-18000 yuan/ton; The price of the titanium type is around 13600-14200 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.
3、 Future forecast
Analysts believe that the domestic titanium dioxide market price will decrease this week. At present, enterprise inventory is high, market conditions are weak, and downstream demand is sluggish. It is expected that the titanium dioxide market will be weak in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiable.

LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly decreased, with 307750 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, down 2.29% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the overnight US dollar index fell slightly by 0.09%, closing at 100.904, providing price support for non-ferrous metals denominated in US dollars. The three major indexes of the US stock market all rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.27% to 52487.41, the S&P 500 rising 0.81% to 7543.64, and the Nasdaq rising 1.30% to 26206.89, indicating a rebound in market risk appetite. However, international oil prices have fallen, with WTI crude oil dropping $1.44 to $72.08 per barrel in August (a decrease of 1.96%), and Brent crude oil falling $1.72 to $76.30 per barrel in September (a decrease of 2.20%), exerting some pressure on commodity inflation expectations.
Supply side: The global shortage of copper concentrate is difficult to change, and the import spot TC has fallen to a historical freezing point of -128 US dollars/ton. Coupled with Kazakhstan’s suspension of sulfur exports, the profits of the smelting side have been compressed to the extreme.
On the demand side: July is the traditional off-season for consumption, and cable and air conditioning production has weakened compared to the previous month. Although the power grid and new energy orders provide bottom line support, copper consumption in the real estate chain is still at a low level. The main demand for spot purchases is due to insufficient willingness to chase after high prices, which restricts the upward potential of copper.
In summary, the fundamentals of copper varieties are relatively strong at present, such as the sustained low TC, continuous supply disruptions from the mining sector, favorable AI narratives on the demand side, and relatively stable output from the power grid. However, there is uncertainty in the macro aspect (such as the market’s rebound in expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike), which makes it impossible to form a unilateral strengthening market. It is expected that copper prices will show a fluctuating and strong pattern at present.

influencing factors
Cost side: Upstream adipic acid and hexamethylenediamine continued to operate weakly this week, with no significant rebound momentum in raw materials. The comprehensive production cost of PA66 continued to decline, and the bottom support strength continued to weaken. International crude oil prices have fluctuated downward, with geopolitical premiums continuing to sell. OPEC+announced an increase in production in August, coupled with Saudi Arabia’s reduction in Asian crude oil prices. Long term weak energy expectations have suppressed upstream raw material prices such as pure benzene, and the cost side continues to form a negative drag. The current industry’s processing profits have turned from profits to losses, with some manufacturers slightly reducing their losses. However, the overall supply contraction is limited, and the cost side is only temporarily supported by a small bottom, which cannot reverse the downward trend.
Supply and demand side: The market maintains a pattern of loose supply and sustained low demand. The continuous release of new production capacity of hexamethylenediamine in the upstream of the supply side, the overall operation of aggregation enterprises remains at a moderate level, the inventory of factories and traders continues to accumulate, the pressure of shipment intensifies, and the phenomenon of cargo holders actively lowering quotations and giving discounts to promote orders increases. The traditional off-season of the demand side industry has not passed, and the recovery of downstream terminal orders for automotive parts and electronic appliances is not as expected. Downstream factories only maintain rigid small order replenishment, and the willingness to stock up in large quantities is low. Market trading is light, and it is difficult to drive price recovery through essential procurement.
Future forecast
The weak and volatile pattern of the PA66 market in the short term is difficult to change, and there is still room for a slight downward trend in prices, making it difficult to see a sustained rebound. The short-term price operating range refers to 17600-18600 yuan/ton, with a continuous low-level bottoming out. Market reversal requires waiting for clear positive signals such as a significant strengthening of crude oil, concentrated price increases of adipic acid/hexamethylenediamine, or concentrated replenishment of downstream terminals.

From the melamine price trend chart moving average system, the 10 day and 20 day moving averages showed a downward trend throughout the entire period, with the 10 day moving average consistently running below the 20 day moving average. The downward momentum in the market is still being released, but the pace of decline has slowed down. Throughout the entire cycle, the price followed the moving average downwards, and the moving average continued to suppress spot prices.
2、 Price Level 5: Low throughout the entire cycle, limited upward potential
The cycle position data shows that melamine is marked as low throughout the one-year cycle position. Although the price is already at a historically low level, it has not attracted buying in, and the low level has not provided support. The market still maintains a bearish trend. On July 3rd and June 30th, the price slightly fell by 0.21%, while on other trading days, the price remained flat and stable at 6037.50 yuan/ton for several consecutive days, belonging to a low-level stalemate state.
3、 Upstream raw material linkage: simultaneous weakening of urea and insufficient cost support
The core raw material of melamine, urea, also showed a downward trend this week. On July 7th, the benchmark price of urea was 1802.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62% from 1813.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The continuous decline in raw material prices cannot provide cost support for melamine. Upstream costs have loosened, manufacturers’ production costs have decreased, and the market’s willingness to offer discounts for shipments has increased, further suppressing the rebound space of melamine prices.
4、 Market prediction
The current melamine spread index remains negative, and the downward trend has not yet reversed. The price is at a low level throughout the entire cycle but lacks support. Coupled with the continuous weakening of upstream urea costs, the short-term market fatigue is difficult to quickly improve. The market is mainly stuck at a low level. If there is no sudden positive news to boost prices, they may continue to operate in a narrow and weak range, and there is currently no signal to stop the decline.

Phase 1: Horizontal consolidation
From June 29th to 30th, the formic acid market continued its previous sluggish trend, with the mainstream average price stabilizing at 2020/ton and no significant price fluctuations. The overall market is in a weak equilibrium state, with industry mainstream expectations being bearish, and downward pressure on the previous market still exists. However, the market has shown signs of recovery, with some production companies slightly raising their prices. Coupled with the news of delayed resumption of industry equipment production, downstream purchasing attitudes have slightly improved, and the enthusiasm for purchasing has increased, driving manufacturers’ inventory to steadily decline and laying the foundation for subsequent price increases.
Phase 2: Continuous Upstream
During the continuous upward phase from July 1st to 3rd, the market opened up a three consecutive upward trend, with steady and even gains. On July 1st, the market reached a turning point with a significant increase in prices, with the average price rising to 2100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 4%. With the continuous improvement of shipping trends and the continuous release of downstream terminal replenishment demand, coupled with the steady decline of manufacturer inventory, multiple favorable factors have formed support, driving the market to continue to strengthen. The upward trend continued in the following two days, and on July 3rd, the price rose again, with an average price of 2300 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 9.52%.
Market forecast: Price “rises”, favorable supply and demand, may continue to rise
The market analysis system shows that the formic acid curve has recently shown an upward trend, with the short-term moving average surpassing the long-term moving average, indicating an upward trend.
And the price is at a long-term low, with a large upward potential.
From a fundamental perspective, industry inventory has fallen back to the median range, with some companies limiting shipments and tightening spot supply. At the same time, downstream concentrated replenishment has driven a surge in trading heat, and the resonance of supply and demand has completely reversed the weak market pattern. The formic acid market is likely to continue its strong operating trend.

Market Overview: During the week, the Ruhr and Sinochem Quanzhou facilities were successfully restarted, with increased supply and continued weak demand. The downstream acrylic fiber industry saw a further decline in production, insufficient spot buying, and a decline in market negotiations. In addition, export negotiation prices also fell. Under weak fundamentals, major suppliers’ quotations were overall lowered. However, the price of raw material propylene rose sharply, and the production profit of acrylonitrile was compressed again, which to some extent suppressed the market decline.
Supply side:
During the week, the acrylonitrile plant started and stopped simultaneously, and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic acrylonitrile industry reached around 75%, resulting in an overall increase in supply. According to statistics, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories this week (June 26th July 2nd) was 74.43%, an increase of 5.02% compared to the previous week; The weekly output is about 86800 tons, an increase of 5800 tons from the previous week. The buying trend maintains the pace of rigid demand, and the inventory of enterprises also shows uneven fluctuations, but overall it is still not high. According to statistics, as of July 1st, the total inventory was about 44000 tons, unchanged from last week.
Demand side:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has fluctuated, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate was 58.5%, an increase of 0.4% compared to last week; Jilin Chemical Fiber’s subsidiary Jimeng Acrylic Fiber Co., Ltd. has reduced the load of its 155000 ton acrylic fiber plant to around 70% for production; The production of 150000 tons of acrylic fiber in Huarong spinning plant has decreased to around 50%, and the capacity utilization rate of the acrylic fiber industry is 72.90%, which is 10.37% higher than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 52.87%, an increase of 0.84% compared to last week. Overall, there has been an increase in demand.
Cost aspect:
The price of propylene, a raw material, has risen on a weekly basis, leading to a decline in profits due to the decrease in acrylonitrile prices. According to statistics, as of July 3rd, the mainstream closing price of Shandong propylene market was based on 7570-7700 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7635 yuan/ton, an increase of 725 yuan/ton from the average price of 6910 yuan/ton last weekend. The average production cost of acrylonitrile was 9731 yuan/ton, a month on month decrease of -0.24%. The average profit of acrylonitrile production during the same period was 649 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 372 yuan/ton.
In the later stage forecast, the inventory of major production enterprises remains low, but downstream demand continues to be weak, spot buying is insufficient, and demand for essential goods has also decreased. Market negotiations have declined, and coupled with lower export negotiation prices, the overall fundamentals are weak. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to weaken in the short term, but the price of raw material propylene will also rise, which will to some extent suppress the market decline.

From the recent price trend, the market shows a strong trend of “bottoming out, rebounding, and accelerating upward”:
June 25-26: The market experienced a brief pullback, with prices dropping to around 6851 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 3.41%.
June 27-28: Prices stabilized at a low level, with a continuous increase or decrease of 0.00% for two consecutive days, building a solid bottom support platform.
From June 29th to July 1st: With the intervention of buying, prices began to rise continuously. Starting from 7211 yuan/ton, the daily increase was as high as 5.25% at one point, and then although there were slight fluctuations, the focus continued to shift upwards, eventually breaking through the 7800 yuan/ton mark and establishing a short-term upward trend.
2、 Technical Analysis of Business Treasure Spot Pass
Based on the analysis of the moving average chart and position indicators, the current technical signal for propylene is relatively strong
1. Mean Square Shape
The 20 day moving average continues to decline, and the medium-term bearish trend remains unchanged; The 10 day moving average first fell and then turned upwards, gradually approaching the 20 day moving average. The negative moving average continued to narrow, and the downward momentum was exhausted. The short-term upward signal is approaching.
2. Price in 5th tier positions
This “short high long low” position structure usually means that the market is in the early to mid stage of rebound or reversal. Although there is some profit taking pressure in the short term (10 day high), in the medium to long term, there is still significant room for recovery above, and it has not reached the long-term top resistance zone.
3、 Fundamental driven: Downstream products generally rise, forming positive feedback
The strengthening of the propylene market this week is not an isolated phenomenon, but has received strong support from downstream industrial chains:
Polypropylene (PP): As the largest downstream consumer of propylene, PP (brushed) performs excellently. The benchmark price on July 2nd was 7940.00 yuan/ton, with a 4.93% increase during the month. The firm price of PP directly improved the profit expectations of propylene production enterprises and stimulated the increase in ex factory prices.
Epoxy propane: Another important downstream epoxy propane price has also moderately increased to 7800.00 yuan/ton (+1.30%).
The price increase of downstream products has eased the pressure of cost transmission, which has increased the acceptance of high priced propylene by downstream factories, and the purchasing enthusiasm is still acceptable. The positive feedback mechanism of “product price increase driving raw material price increase” is the core driving force for propylene prices to break through the previous fluctuation range and achieve a growth rate of over 5% this week.
4、 Future prospects
Overall, the propylene market is currently in a benign channel where both quantity and price are rising. On a technical level, the bullish alignment of the moving average system supports prices to continue their inertial upward trend; Fundamentally, the release of downstream demand provides solid support.

This week, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society showed overall weak fluctuations. From June 24th to 29th, the price remained stable in the range of 6062.5 yuan/ton for a long time, with narrow horizontal fluctuations in the market and no significant fluctuations in price; Until June 30th, the market broke through and fell, with a daily price reduction of 12.5 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 0.21%. The spot benchmark price fell to 6050 yuan/ton, a new low in the stage.
From a monthly perspective, as of July 1st, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 6050.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.22% compared to the beginning of last month (6125.00 yuan/ton). The upstream raw material urea weakened synchronously, with a benchmark price of 1813.75 yuan/ton on July 1st, a month on month decrease of 0.34%. The cost side support continued to loosen, laying the foundation for the weak operation of melamine this week.
fundamentals
1. Cost side: Upstream urea prices have weakened synchronously, with a slight decrease in urea prices this month. The marginal cost of melamine production has fallen, and the cost support for production enterprises has weakened. The resistance to lowering factory quotations has decreased, and the raw material side cannot provide price increase momentum, but continues to exert strong pressure on spot prices.
2. Supply and demand side: The spot price remained flat in the first half of this week, mainly due to the weak balance between market supply and demand. Factory inventory remained stable, downstream board and coating rigid demand procurement remained stable, and there were no concentrated high-volume orders; In the second half of the week, the price broke the level, reflecting the continuous weakening of terminal demand, the increasing wait-and-see sentiment in downstream markets, the slowing down of the pace of purchasing, and the slight increase in pressure on manufacturers to ship, resulting in passive price cuts to promote transactions.
Prediction of future market trends
Short term trend: The current moving average index has entered a negative expansion range, corresponding to a signal of accelerated decline; At the same time, although the price of melamine is at a low level throughout the entire cycle, there are no signals to stop the decline such as the turning of the moving average or the convergence of the moving average. The short-term weak operating pattern of melamine prices is difficult to reverse, and there is still a small downward exploration space.